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A Tract on Monetary Reform (Great Minds Series) (Englisch) Taschenbuch – 1. April 2000

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3 von 3 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen and enjoy! 10. Juli 2014
Von J. Rogelio - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Keynes' "A Tract on Monetary Reform" is a lucid treatise about what monetary authorities around the world should care about when they are dealing with money, interest rates, and inflation. Keynes had an outstanding understanding of economics, he begins his Tract tracing the issues that arise from inflationary (and deflationary) processes in the economy and why they should be addressed; then he goes on the quantitative theory of money and the importance of this theory; he closes with some remarks on what monetary policy on each State, namely, U.S., England, U.K., and the rest of the world can do about the inflationary (and deflationary) processes when they arise in an economy. This is a very interesting book. No fuzzy math, even though Keynes knew a lot of advanced mathematics, it is worth mention he was friend of one of the most proficient mathematicians Cambridge has ever seen, namely G. H. Hardy. Get your copy, and enjoy!
5.0 von 5 Sternen An old little book with (still) new great ideas 8. September 2015
Von De-Xing Guan - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
This is the second best book written by Keynes, next only to his masterpiece: The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money. There were many interesting and original ideas in this little book. You can find his most popular passage: "In the long run we are all dead." on p. 80, where he was discussing the inadequacy for the Quantity Theory of Money to be a theory of short-run fluctuations. The most important contribution of this book might be Ch. IV, in which the protocol of the famous "Impossible Trinity" theory in modern international finance was first presented, though the original idea came from Irving Fisher. Keynes had also dealt with Ricardo/Cassel's theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) in Ch. III, and had formulated a better version of the modern interest rate parity (IRP) in Ch. IV. Though published 92 years ago, A Tract on Monetary Reform still provides us with many useful insights about the nature of monetary policy, especially in such a era when many advanced countries have been conducting the policy of quantitative easing (QE) and had worried about when and how to quit this unconventional monetary policy. There are some answers and hints to the above questions in this fantastic book.
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4.0 von 5 Sternen Keynes v. The Gold Standard 31. Oktober 2009
Von not me - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Only Keynes could have written "A Tract on Monetary Reform." The book combines high theory, sharp polemics, business savvy, and wicked, elegant prose. There's nothing else like it in the literature -- except, possibly, Keynes' own "The Economic Consequences of the Peace." It's hard to believe these two books were written by the same man who wrote "The General Theory" which, whatever its intellectual merits, is a tough read indeed.

The "Tract" was aimed at the deflationists of the 1920s, who wanted to restore the gold standard, even if it meant rolling back the price increases of World War I and throwing the economy into recession. Keynes was writing for the moment. However, his analysis of inflation/deflation remains fresh and relevant today. The book also has the famous "long run" line. It's a good read.
5.0 von 5 Sternen Very good 10. Juli 2013
Von Marcelo B Monteiro - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Very good Book and it is in very good shape.
John Maynard Keynes was one of the best economist in the 20th century
2 von 6 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen Lacks a clearcut "uncertainty(ambiguity) vs.risk" distinction 15. September 2005
Von Michael Emmett Brady - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe Verifizierter Kauf
Keynes's Tract on Monetary Reform allows the reader to conclude that,while Keynes did distinguish between uncertainty(Ellsberg's ambiguity,measured by his rho index and/or Keynes's weight of the evidence of the A Treatise on Probability,measured by his w index)and risk on p.105,he had not yet formally integrated the role that uncertainty plays in the demand for money(liquidity preference).Keynes talks about risk in international product markets, trading,currency exchange,backward-forward markets,etc.,but it is clear that he is talking about the various spreads that incorporate risk premiums.Considerations of risk alone lead to the transactions demand for money as being the only explanation for holding money balances in the quantity theory of money as understood by classical and neoclassical economists from Hume to M.Friedman and R.Lucas.The standard quantity theory of the demand for money is operationalized by assuming the applicability of a normal probability distribution.Interestingly,not a single neoclassical,moneterist,or rational expectationist economist has ever done a goodness of fit test first to see if the normal distribution is applicable.Keynes,in 1924,implicitly goes along with this approach.The most important portion of Keynes's book is contained on pages 61-69.He presents the standard approach,given by the following formula: n=p(k+rk'),where n equals cash in circulation,p equals the price level(cost of living index),k equals the public's holding of a cash equivalent,k' equals the public's holding of the cash equivalent in the form of bank deposits,r equals the bank deposit's reserve ratio,and rk' equals the amount of bank reserves.The standard classical and neoclassical short run and long run neutrality of money assertion is obtained if,and only if, n increases while(r+rk') remains invariant.The price level variable p will increase by the same amount as n.In the General Theory(1936),Keynes demonstates in chapter 21 that this result,which he accepted in 1923-24, is only a special case that holds under the existence of risk(the normal probability distribution used by Friedman,Lucas,Tobin,etc.)or certainty.Under conditions of Ellsbergian ambiguity or Keynesian uncertainty(or ignorance),the correct,generalized equation of exchange requires that either the rho index or the w index be integrated into the equation of exchange.The generalized Keynesian-Ellsbergian equation of exchange is then written as n=p[(k/w)+r(k'/w')],where w and w' represent the weight of the evidence available to the general public(w) and the weight of the evidence available to the banking industry(w'),respectively.Both w and w' are normalized on the unit interval between 0 and 1,i.e.,w,w'are elements of the set[0,1].Only if both w and w' are equal to 1 does one obtain the results claimed by Friedman and Lucas.This is why Lucas asserts that macroeconomics must be based on a concept of risk represented by the normal probability distribution,as does Friedman,who also asserts that there is no such thing as liquidity preference(only a transactions demand for money).Friedman thus asserts that there is no such thing as ambiguity.Friedman must make such an assertion because he is a lifelong advocate of the Ramsey-De Finetti-Savage subjective probability approach that asserts that it is not possible to incorporate uncertainty(Savage's vagueness)in a decision rule. Friedman's claim that the GT is based on excessive liquidity preference follows from his acceptance of the LJ Savage approach to probability.Unfortunately for Friedman,there is vast empirical evidence to support the existence of decision making under conditions of uncertainty or ambiguity.One can see the progress Keynes made by comparing the Tract with chapter 21 of the GT.Friedman works with the standard equation of exchange,MV=PO.This is misspecified.The correct generalized equation is M(Vw)=PO,where w is the weight of the evidence.Friedman has a special theory based on the assertion that w=1.Only risk considerations determine the demand for money.
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