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Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty (Englisch) Taschenbuch – 4. Juli 2002

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"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medical choices should read it" - New Scientist -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine andere Ausgabe: Taschenbuch.

Synopsis

In the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, H.G. Wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Yet, a century on, most of us, from TV weather forecasters to the American President, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties. This volume offers a treatment for the "disease" of statistical illiteracy. Aimed at helping us understand risks in the real world, it shows how a proper understanding of uncertainties can make the difference between hope and despair.

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Format: Taschenbuch
...but the author shook my firm believe in this. as a finance "specialist" i always believed that even the trained mind in probabilities had difficulties with imagining and visualising odds. the authors argument in this book is ground-breaking to me. probabilities, percentages and other normalised forms of representing risk are relatively recent. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution. just for this part, chapter 1 "insight", the book is wort every penny for those interested in probability and the perception of it.
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Von simonue am 12. Juni 2013
Format: Kindle Edition
Niemandem sollten diese erhellenden und wichtigen Botschaften verborgen bleiben. Es ist bestürzend wie wenig man versteht, wenn Daten unüberlegt verbreitet werden und wie rücksichtslos mit Kunden und Patienten umgegangen wird, wenn es darum geht einen Kauf abzuschließen.
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Die hilfreichsten Kundenrezensionen auf Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: 4.6 von 5 Sternen 10 Rezensionen
10 von 10 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Applicable to real life 9. Juni 2007
Von Smet - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
As far as I am concerned, statistics deserves much more attention in the school curriculum than it gets at present. In general, few of us understand the concept of probability, and it is often distorted and misunderstood.

In this book Gigerenzer presents numerous examples of such misunderstanding, mostly from medicine and jurisprudence. If you test HIV positive, what are the chances that you actually have the virus? Surprisingly, most doctors (including myself before reading this book) don't know the answer. The same is true regarding mammography. The author also presents examples of how the logic of probability is applied incorrectly, such as in "prosecutor's fallacy" and DNA testing. Importantly, he also shows how to interpret complicated statistical data and convert it into natural frequencies that are easily understood.

Despite the complexity of the topic, the book is not difficult to read and is written with the good sense of humor. It is not an academic text and is entertaining. Anyone who is faced with the choices regarding medical screening or treatment will find it very useful. I re-read this book many times and thoroughly enjoyed it. This book also changed the way I look at medical research and apply it in my medical practice.
9 von 10 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen Minds are not adapted to probability.......i used to believe 4. Februar 2006
Von Franco Arda - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
but the author shook my firm believe in this. as a finance "specialist" i always believed that even the trained mind in probabilities had difficulties with imagining and visualising odds. the authors argument in this book is ground-breaking to me. probabilities, percentages and other normalised forms of representing risk are relatively recent. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution. just for this part, chapter 1 "insight", the book is wort every penny for those interested in probability and the perception of it.
3 von 3 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Invaluable in learning how to measure risk in today's uncertain world 15. August 2009
Von G. Perera - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
The test for breast cancer is extremely reliable. It correctly detects breast cancer in 90% of cases when the cancer does exist, and only mistakenly reports it in 9% of cases when the cancer doesn't exist. The incidence of breast cancer in women is 1 in 100. Suppose you (or, for men, a woman close to you) take a test for breast cancer, and unfortunately it returns a positive result (i.e. it detects the cancer). What is the probability that you do have breast cancer? Would you be surprised to know it's just 10%? Not 90%, 99% or some other high number?

Another example: DNA testing on a murder weapon matches your DNA, and a forensic expert says there's only a 1 in 100,000 chance of that happening. Are you doomed? Would you be surprised to know that in a city of, say, 2 million people, this means you're 95% likely to be NOT guilty, based on that DNA evidence alone?

Do these examples surprise and confuse you? If so, take heart: They surprise and confuse most people - laypeople and experts (doctors and lawyers) alike. Unfortunately, this can have disastrous - sometimes tragic - consequences in law, medicine and other fields.

This is the topic of Gerd Gigerenzer's excellent book about working with risk and uncertainty. Read it and you might be horrified at some of the horrible mistakes being made by experts giving advice. At least you'll be in a better position to question them and become better informed.

Is this the best book ever written about dealing with uncertainty? I'm not sure. But it's certainly well worth the read.
5.0 von 5 Sternen Best educational book I read all year 23. Februar 2013
Von Walter Schreiner - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
People intuitively don't know how to deal with risk, or how to compare two risks, A vs. B. For example, (A) to treat a medical condition or (B) not to treat it. The news media constantly bombards us with statistics which "prove" something is dangerous, or which "proves" a drug works. But in reality the information totally misleads us by the way it is presented. Journalists love to report such stories because they want people to read their articles (so they get famous). But they have no idea how to put risks into perspective -- and they have no incentive to do so. Result: we end up worrying about the wrong things.

Gerd explains clearly how to avoid such traps. He gives wonderful examples, such as the incidence rate of breast cancer, and the extremes that some women go through to try to prevent something which is actually very unlikely (unless your family has an actual history of it). There are many other examples in the book. Well, why not just take a doctors advice? He's the expert, right? The problem is doctors are forced to tell you the worst case scenario, and that's the one that gets our attention. Potentially bad news wakes you up, right? But they do that mainly to avoid law suits, not to help understand risks, so we are drawn to the wrong conclusion. For some reason, we expect doctors (and many other professionals) to be right 100% of the time. We expect certainly from them. But that's totally absurd! That's not the way life is. If you want to do what's truly best for you, personally, you can't just abdicate responsibility and blindly do something without understanding the risk trade-offs and coming to your own conclusion. Gerd teaches us how to ask the right questions so we can come to logical, sensible and balanced decisions.

Like I said, this was the best book I read all year. I highly recommend reading it, and then taking charge of your own decisions instead of listening and knee-jerk reacting to information that, while true in and of itself, is almost invariably presented in a highly misleading way by journalists, scientists, doctors, drug companies, researchers, lawyers and government agencies. Everyone has an axe to grind, and no one (except Gerd) helps us understand how to properly interpret what we hear.

Summary: There are only two things in life that are certain -- death and taxes. Everything else is a trade-off between alternative risks. To treat or not to treat. Two risks. Learn to make such trade-offs wisely, not emotionally. Read the book !!!
5.0 von 5 Sternen Insights into turning data into understanding. 3. September 2011
Von Steven Unwin - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
This book is highly recommended for anyone who has to use numbers to communicate information or who tries to interpret numeric information to make informed judgements.

The book has as its central theme the confusion caused, intentionally or otherwise when information is presented poorly. It presents a truly startling picture of the resulting innumeracy not just within the general public but also amongst trained professionals.

Though the lessons are generic, a significant portion of the book deals with examples drawn from the world of medicine. These are used to illustrate the very simple root causes by which information is presented in ways that obscure meaning and make reasoned judgement difficult if not impossible.

These medical examples are far from obscure and deal with issues that will be of concern to many of us, such as data on HIV AIDS, Breast Cancer Screening, Prostate Cancer and use of the contraceptive pill for example.

The thrust of the book is not that information does not exist to assist judgement of risks in these areas, but that the way it is presented and communicated serves to perpetuate innumeracy amongst patient and clinician alike. This innumeracy can have dramatic consequences with inappropriate treatments being selected and patients being caused undue worry, distress or physical harm. An example is cited of a surgeon who performed breast removal operations on 90 patients who showed no sign of disease, simply based on his interpretation of the risk they faced of contracting it in the future.

The examples are not limited solely to medicine and the legal profession comes in for its share of scrutiny including DNA fingerprinting and an insightful look at how innumeracy may have contributed to the outcome of the O.J. Simpson case.

The lessons for the broader business community are clear.
The book is divided in to three sections that don't just provide examples of the problem of effectively communicating data but clear simple guidance on how it can be avoided.

By dealing with topic areas that many of us will recognise the book is able to clearly illuminate the problems of innumeracy and graphically illustrate the impact this can have with lessons for our personal and business lives. It may also provide particularly valuable insights for those who face the specific health problems it uses as examples and help create understanding of the real risks faced for example by a positive breast cancer screening result.

The book also has some absurd but real examples of innumeracy lunacy, for example the Mexican government which increased road volume by simply repainting a four lane highway with six lanes - a 50% increase. The high volume of accidents this caused led to the road being reduced back to 4 lanes - a 33% reduction and the later claim that road volume had actually been increased by 17%! It also has a section of fun examples of innumeracy to help drive the point home and a chapter on teaching clear thinking.

It's an entertaining an illuminating read that should improve your ability to ask the right questions to get to the bottom of what data is really telling us.
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