- Gebundene Ausgabe: 400 Seiten
- Verlag: HarperBusiness (9. Juni 2009)
- Sprache: Englisch
- ISBN-10: 0060598999
- ISBN-13: 978-0060598990
- Größe und/oder Gewicht: 15,2 x 3,2 x 22,9 cm
- Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 3 Kundenrezensionen
- Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 146.479 in Fremdsprachige Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Fremdsprachige Bücher)
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The Myth of the Rational Market: A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street (Englisch) Gebundene Ausgabe – 9. Juni 2009
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“Do we really need yet another book about the financial crisis? Yes, we do — because this one is different. Fox’s book is not an idle exercise in intellectual history, which makes it a must-read for anyone who wants to understand the mess we’re in.” (Paul Krugman, New York Times Book Review)
“Justin Fox is a truly insightful fellow who can see things with his own eyes—a rare, very rare attribute.” (Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan)
“A fascinating historical narrative.” (Roger Lowenstein, The Washington Post)
“This wise and witty book is must reading for anyone who wonders what makes financial markets tick. Even those who have wrestled with this question for years will be glad to have read Fox’s compelling history.” (Peter Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk)
“His analysis is singularly compelling, and the rare business history that reads like a thriller... A must-read for anyone interested in the markets, our economy or government, this dense but spellbinding work brings modern finance and economics to life.” (Publishers Weekly (starred review))
“A lucid, lively and learned account.” (Barron's)
“Fox makes business history thrilling.” (St. Louis Post-Dispatch)
“Impressively broad and richly researched.” (Financial Times)
“...a rich history of the world’s most seductive investing idea...the book chronicles the rise of rational market theory over the decades and captures the sizzle and pop of the intellectual debate ...” (Bloomberg)
“Good wonky fun.” (Barry Ritholz, The Big Picture blog)
Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox's The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today. It's a tale that features professors who made and lost fortunes, battled fiercely over ideas, beat the house in blackjack, wrote bestselling books, and played major roles on the world stage. It's also a tale of Wall Street's evolution, the power of the market to generate wealth and wreak havoc, and free market capitalism's war with itself.
The efficient market hypothesis—long part of academic folklore but codified in the 1960s at the University of Chicago—has evolved into a powerful myth. It has been the maker and loser of fortunes, the driver of trillions of dollars, the inspiration for index funds and vast new derivatives markets, and the guidepost for thousands of careers. The theory holds that the market is always right, and that the decisions of millions of rational investors, all acting on information to outsmart one another, always provide the best judge of a stock's value. That myth is crumbling.
Celebrated journalist and columnist Fox introduces a new wave of economists and scholars who no longer teach that investors are rational or that the markets are always right. Many of them now agree with Yale professor Robert Shiller that the efficient markets theory “represents one of the most remarkable errors in the history of economic thought.” Today the theory has given way to counterintuitive hypotheses about human behavior, psychological models of decision making, and the irrationality of the markets. Investors overreact, underreact, and make irrational decisions based on imperfect data. In his landmark treatment of the history of the world's markets, Fox uncovers the new ideas that may come to drive the market in the century ahead.Alle Produktbeschreibungen
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"When I set out to write this book, I didn't have a particular ideological axe to grind about efficient markets. Sure, I had my biases (cognitive and otherwise), but I was mainly interested in reporting and telling a story."
Justin Fox ist es besser als Tacitus in den Annalen gelungen diesem Motto tatsächlich treu zu bleiben.
Er schildert die Geschichte, die innere Logik der Mainstream Ökonomie und die Motife der handelnden Personen der letzten 100 Jahre. Der Autor ist - wie er selbst betont - gelernter Journalist und nicht Wissenschafter. Er kann schreiben. Er hat aber auch ausreichendes Fachwissen und kennt aus persönlicher Erfahrung die Branche. Journalisten neigen dazu einen Sachverhalt in Gschichtln aufzulösen und sich selbst in den Mittelpunkt zu stellen. Fox erzählt auch Geschichten, aber sie werden nie zum reinen Selbstzweck. Er hält auch sein Ego angenehm im Hintergrund.
Die herrschende Ökonomie ist die Ökonomie der Herrschenden. Der Autor verlässt dieses Terrain nicht. Er hat auch nicht den Anspruch derartiges zu leisten. Er beschreibt aber dieses abgesteckte Terrain sehr gut. Es war ein Vergnügen dieses Buch zu lesen.
Unvoreingenommen und objektiv, mit einigem Humor, gelingt es dem Author den Spagat zwischen den verschiedenen Theorie-Lagern zu spannen.
Uneingeschränkte Empfehlung, klare 5 Sterne.
I know of no field of study filled with more methodological errors than the study of how markets work. Someone was bound to see the humor in all the people with big egos winning global honors for ideas that someone new to the subject could point out were obviously wrong. Indeed, many professors have been wearing no clothes for a long time and were proud of it.
I'm impressed that it is a former Fortune editor who appreciated the irony of the story and wrote about it in human terms. That magazine has had a history of jumping on the band wagon of bad economic ideas. Good for Justin Fox.
The ultimate irony of this subject is that in 2059, hundreds of thousands of young business school students will probably still be taught the inaccurate theories that were finally shown to be wrong in the last two decades. I would wager that few people today realize that most of the advocates of the efficient market theory have pulled in their horns in the face of strong evidence to the contrary. Hopefully, this book will help.
It must have been a tough book to write. The key points could have been summarized in a short article. The full story would take many volumes. For the most part, Mr. Fox seems to have kept his story at the right level to show how a small club of economists happily misled those who read their work for a long time based on assumptions that no one would have agreed resembled the real world. The Capital Asset Pricing Model, for instance, had its assumptions revised every few years by academics for a long time in a vain attempt to sustain it. Yet today, I would bet that most Chief Financial Officers of major companies still make decisions based on CAPM (or its near cousins) despite the theory clearly being wrong.
The "prize-winning" economics were writing about the world as they would like to have it: human beings as rational decision-makers where the highly intelligent quickly move out those who aren't. As we have seen, smart people can also outsmart themselves . . . such as by assuming that they have no effect on markets even when they take huge positions that cannot easily be liquidated (Long-Term Capital Management was an example).
The book's main weakness is that it doesn't pay enough attention to the role of company managements relative to financial markets. Also, the silliness of much of the advice for corporations that academics and consultants have peddled for the last 50 years isn't revealed.
My own view (based on many years of unpublished research during the years when no one thought that psychology played any role in markets and wouldn't publish such research) is that the markets are more efficient than is currently believed . . . when you know how to measure them. But the current measurements are hopelessly flawed and I know of no current academic research to correct those measurement errors. It may well be that someone will be able to write an updated version of this book about the silliness of today's ideas about markets in 50 years. I don't doubt that the opportunity to do so will exist
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The book starts out discussing the modern beginning of financial economics with Irving Fisher. It introduces in chronological order people who started using statistics and data mining to examine properties of asset pricing. The first instances of random walk properties of bonds are discussed with Macaulay (from macaulay duration). The book makes a quick transition to Markowitz who introduces portfolio theory as a natural outgrowth of expertise gained from mastering optimization under uncertainty in the second world war. Ideas from CAPM and efficient market theory are discussed in historical context and the momentum of academic belief in the approach. The book then starts to focus on practical reality and the interplay between academics and industry is discussed with analysis of mutual fund returns, the rights of shareholders being a stick to reduce agency problems and in a certain sense it is a discussion of how aggregate behaviour can be seen to enforce the efficient market. As the book follows history in its actual sequence of events, with the 70s being a period in which markets performed abnormally to a certain extent, financial scholars began to question their assumptions and market failure is considered by many top academics. One can sense the growing disagreement in academic finance. The book continues into the modern financial era and discusses the change of belief of many of the efficient markets biggest proponents. Strong evidence is shown to allow for statistical anomolies in financial prices over time that dispute the efficient market convincingly. At the same time, mistakes of the past are rarely the mistakes of the future and so mispricings are not persistent. In addition examples of where mispricings lasted for longer than holders could hold are examined, in particular LTCM is discussed.
The Myth of the Rational Market is a nice historical account of academic thought on financial economics and the assumptions of academics about financial markets. Through historical account the reader sees the evolution of thought and the reasoning behind both the formation and subsequent changes in beliefs. It is both readable and informative and through the account the author basically argues that today people belief that markets might not be efficient, but there is no arbitrage. I recommend it as a colorful history of modern financial economics.
My naivete opened the world to a new way of viewing the markets and their behavior.
Author Justin Fox let's it be known that he is a journalist but his humility is just that. The man is truly a brilliant writer and a gifted storyteller.
What do you take away from the book that is largely a 20th century history of the academic minds that fueled our beliefs about the markets?
First is that the struggles that you and I have with just how efficient or not the market is...is something that all the great minds struggle with. Don't worry you won't walk away with the belief that the markets are indeed rational. But you'll sense the arguments that the markets do discount a lot of information is correct. Of course...the there are the exceptions which more than shine in the conclusion that the markets are not rational.
If that analysis isn't crystal it's because the waters are murky even in the minds of those who have studied it and lived it for decades on end.
Second takeaway? Stability breeds instability. Markets that are stable, are trending nicely are preparing the way for a disaster. Now WHEN will that disaster hit? You don't always know that of course but THIS conclusion was a wake up call.
Third? Shiller's study on home prices dating back a century show that adjusted for inflation...housing may not be the great investment waiting to happen again...that you might wish it would be... (My conclusion)
Fourth? Keynes wrote at one point that keeping interest rates artificially low perhaps could keep markets in a perpetual bubble that won't break so why not? (My conclusion to this rather stunning paraphrase? Step out of the way when that explosion occurs...Keynes is wrong.)
There are hundreds of grand nuggets buried within this brilliantly told story of Wall Street being studied and taught at University.
An outstanding book and a great read filled with notes for further study for those of us who got curiouser and curiouser....
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The problem is that Justin Fox goes into far too much detail; the theories that were put forward and the names of the people involved in them. I thought of abandoning the book several times (usual for me), but I'm glad I didn't. The Epilogue is well worth reading for an overview of what these people (the economists), who thing they are scientists on a par with chemists and physicists, have done, and continue to do, to the detriment of the famous 'man in the street'.