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What's the Worst That Could Happen?: A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate Paperback – 7 July 2009

English edition by Greg Craven (Autor)
4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 47 ratings
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7.2 million YouTube viewers can't be wrong: A provocative new way to look at the global warming debate.

Based on a series of viral videos that have garnered more than 7.2 million views, this visually appealing book gives readers-be they global warming activists, soccer moms, or NASCAR dads-a way to decide on the best course of action, by asking them to consider, "What's the worst that could happen?" And for those who decide that action is needed, Craven provides a solution that is not only powerful but also happens to be stunningly easy. Not just another "change your light bulb" book, this intriguing and provocative guide is the first to help readers make sense-for themselves-of the contradictory statements about global climate change.

The globe is warming! or The globe is not warming.

We're the ones doing it! or It's a natural cycle.

It's gonna be a catastrophe! or It'll be harmless.

This is the biggest threat to humankind! or This is the biggest hoax in history.

Watch a Video

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  1. Print length
    272 pages
  2. Language
    English
  3. Publisher
    Penguin Publishing Group
  4. Publication date
    7 July 2009
  5. Reading age
    18 years and up
  6. Dimensions
    13.97 x 1.57 x 19.05 cm
  7. ISBN-10
    0399535012
  8. ISBN-13
    978-0399535017
  9. See all details
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Review

"Greg Craven has written a brilliant and unique work on global warming. His innovative and intelligent approach to this controversial issue is superbly crafted. It is an important book that is a must read for those who care about our planet and future generations."
-General Anthony C. Zinni USMC (Retired)

"This book trumps most of our accounts of the global warming crisis, partly for its good humor and straightforward logic, and partly because the author has actually figured out what actions make sense. Changing your lightbulb will help a little, but changing the political debate will help enormously-and this book will get you started down that path."
-Bill McKibben, author The End of Nature

"The worst thing that could happen is that you don't read this book! Greg Craven has written a valuable primer on the global warming debate."
-Gregg Easterbrook, author, Sonic Boom

"This is a tremendous book and well worth anyone's time to read. It very clearly and concisely covers all the important points not only about the climate change situation in our moment, but how we think and decide about important issues. Anyone who enjoyed Craven's YouTube triumph "The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See" will enjoy unpacking that experience in this book, and for people running into Craven for the first time, you're in for a treat-he is funny as well as well as exceptionally clear, and wise."
-Kim Stanley Robinson, the Hugo and Nebula Award-winning author of The Mars trilogy and Science in the Capital

About the Author

Greg Craven

Product details

  • Publisher ‏ : ‎ Penguin Publishing Group; Original edition (7 July 2009)
  • Language ‏ : ‎ English
  • Paperback ‏ : ‎ 272 pages
  • ISBN-10 ‏ : ‎ 0399535012
  • ISBN-13 ‏ : ‎ 978-0399535017
  • Reading age ‏ : ‎ 18 years and up
  • Dimensions ‏ : ‎ 13.97 x 1.57 x 19.05 cm
  • Customer reviews:
    4.2 4.2 out of 5 stars 47 ratings

About the author

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Greg Craven

Greg Craven

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Greg Craven grew up on a farm in Oregon, experimented with different jobs for a decade, and finally found his calling as a high school physics and chemistry teacher. His main qualification for proposing a layman's approach to climate change is having borrowed the 30 brains in his classroom every period to mull questions of science and critical thinking for the last ten years. He's found there's no better way to refine a thought than to toss it out in front of a roomful of critical teenagers. He is a bit surprised to find he's written a book as a result. Craven lives in Corvallis, Oregon with his wife and two young daughters.

Customer reviews

4.2 out of 5 stars
47 global ratings

Top reviews from Germany

BaerbelW
5.0 out of 5 stars Eine geniale Anleitung WIE wir über das Thema Klimawandel denken sollten!
Reviewed in Germany on 25 July 2009
Greg Cravens Buch ist definitiv mehr als nur ein weiteres Buch über den Klimawandel, für das ein Eisbär auf dem Titel herhalten musste! "What's The Worst That Could Happen?" sagt Ihnen nicht WAS Sie über den Klimawandel denken sollen sondern WIE Sie das am besten anstellen. Greg Craven gibt Ihnen Werkzeuge zum kritischen Denken an die Hand, die auch bei anderen Themen angewendet werden können, wenn Sie trotz unvollständiger oder widersprüchlicher Informationen eine Entscheidung treffen müssen. Greg Craven erklärt, wie Sie die Zuverlässigkeit von Informationsquellen beurteilen und einordnen können ("Credibility spectrum"), welche Fallstricke unsere unvollkommenen Gehirne für uns bereit halten ("Confirmation Bias") und warum wir uns nicht länger mit der Frage "gibt es den menschengemachten Klimawandel überhaupt?" aufhalten dürfen ("Science is never certain") sondern uns stattdessen die Titelfrage seines Buches stellen und diese dann auch beantworten müssen.

Wer möchte, kann sich während der Lektüre des Buches in mehreren Schritten sein eigenes credibility spectrum zusammenstellen, und so zu seinem ganz persönlichen Ergebnis kommen.

Greg Craven macht natürlich keinen Hehl aus seiner Überzeugung, dass wir endlich aktiv gegen den Klimawandel vorgehen müssen, wenn wir das Schlimmste noch verhindern möchten. Er stellt dies im Laufe des Buches immer wieder klar, erwähnt dabei aber auch, dass er sich natürlich irren kann (was er zwar hofft, aber in Anbetracht seines persönlichen credibility spectrums für eher unwahrscheinlich hält).

Sofern Sie Gregs Videos noch nicht kennen, sollten Sie zumindest "How It All Ends" anschauen (auf YouTube.com unter seiner ID wonderingmind42 zu finden), damit Sie den Autor auch in Aktion sehen, wenn er sein Raster ("the grid") an der Tafel entwirft. Das ist sowohl lustig anzuschauen als auch sehr überzeugend (jedenfalls für mich!).
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Thomas Werner
5.0 out of 5 stars Ein rationaler Umgang mit einem leider subjektiven Thema...
Reviewed in Germany on 22 November 2009
Greg Craven versucht mit seinem Buch "What's The Worst That Could Happen?" eine Audienz zu bedienen, die sich zu dem Thema globale Erderwärmung noch keine Meinung bilden konnten und liefert auf wissenschaftstheoretischer Basis wertvolle Entscheidungsvorschläge. Trotz der englischen Sprache ist der komplexe Inhalt des Buches didaktisch gut aufbereitet, was daher rühren mag, dass der Autor selbst naturwissenschaftlicher Highschool Lehrer ist.

Dieses Buch liefert wasserdichte Argumente für das Handeln gegen den Klimawandel und weiss durch die gelungene Balance zwischen jugendlicher, gut verdaulicher Sprache und der Vermittlung empirischer Basistheorie zu begeistern.

Eine spezielle Empfehlung für die Verwendung in interdisziplinärem Englischunterricht an Gymnasien.
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Top reviews from other countries

Dr. Bax
5.0 out of 5 stars The one book on climate change you MUST read
Reviewed in the United States on 27 August 2010
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I just finished reading this book and I daresay it's even more fun, energetic, and insightful than the viral videos that preceded the book. The first few chapters were a little slow for me, perhaps because they overlap so much with the videos. But last night I got past that and just couldn't put it down till I finished.

I have been reading many books on climate change recently by both warmers and skeptics to try to figure out what to believe. It can be very infuriating because most of the books are written as if the authors are so certain about what they are saying (particularly the ones by skeptics, which is kind of ironic). But clearly certainty is not a useful criterion for judging truth. It doesn't matter how certain they all are -- they can't all be right! For every damning quote I found, I was finding plausible rebuttals. Then rebuttals to the rebuttals, and so on.

Eventually I just decided that even if you can decide for yourself what you believe to be the most credible position by sifting through the arguments, there is absolutely no way to convince someone *else* of that if they don't want to be convinced. Greg makes this point in his book -- you can always find some evidence that supports your view if you look hard enough. And people who want to be convinced one way or the other will typically rest their case when they find that evidence. So no matter what you say there's always some rebuttal someone can make to refute the point and you're left just staring at each other saying "oh yeh? well you're wrong", "no you are", "no I'm not" ... and not getting anywhere.

And then I realized that you don't really need to know for sure if the warmers are right. The only question that really matters is are they at least credible? Do they genuinely believe what they say? Do they have evidence to back it up? Are they not idiots? Are there a significant number of them? I find the answers to all those to be yes. So I made my conclusion. The risk is significant enough to warrant taking it seriously.

Then I saw Greg Craven's viral video. His little 2x2 grid encapsulated the same basic idea so charmingly that I was hooked at once. Yes! Finally someone not trying to prove which side is right!! That's exactly how you avoid getting sucked in to the endless quagmire. I bought the book at once just as a way to vote with my wallet for Greg's great video. Didn't get around to reading till months later. Didn't think I really needed to read it after seeing the videos, frankly.

But I'm really glad that I did read it. Greg's perspective is such a breath of fresh air (so to speak) in this stale debate about CO2. Having read a number of books on climate change, and having waded through their scientific (and oft not-so-scientific) claims, for the most part I couldn't see myself recommending any of them individually to my friends. You really need to read them all for yourself to get a good picture, and that's a hard sell to someone who's not that interested in the climate debate to begin with. And even if you do slog through them, I don't think that most of what I read would be useful for someone without a science background. But Greg's book cuts through all that in a really nice way. He comes across as an impartial guide to the landscape (ok somewhat partial, but he acknowledges that and tries really hard not to let it get in the way). He doesn't claim to be any sort of expert, or try tell you what to think. He just guides you through his risk analysis idea that tells you how to decide for yourself.

Anyway, the book is great. It's the first book on climate change I've read that I'd wholeheartedly recommend to anyone. Skeptic or warmer, young or old, interested in climate or not. It doesn't matter. This book is well worth the read for all. I just can't say enough nice things about Greg or his book. Watch the videos. Buy the book. And do as he says, and go ahead and buy one for a friend too. I did. At this price you might as well. This would be a great first book to read as an introduction to the issue, before going on to read books by Hansen, Michaels, Singer, Gelbspan, Schneider. Or you know, if you're not that interested in the details, just read this book and leave it at that.
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Jamie
5.0 out of 5 stars The antidote to Yar Boo Debate
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 5 April 2010
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If you find the utter certainties of the two sides in the global warming debate confusing, this could be the book for you. Greg Craven is a science teacher in the USA so he knows a bit about his subject; more importantly, he doesn't harangue you or the various 'experts' on either side. He just takes you through a form of risk analysis in a humorous and highly readable way, asking the question that's on the front. Unlike one of the other reviews of this book you can read here, he doesn't set about rubbishing people's ideas but does apply a degree of varied weight to them, using a set of criteria he's chosen. You don't have to adopt the same criteria, and he's anxious you avoid some normal preconceptions humans fall for, so you get warned about 'red flags' - the first of which is our tendency to look only for evidence to support our own views.
I saw some of Greg Craven's rather whacky videos on You Tube so I was interested that he'd taken the debate he'd been having online into the full book field. This is thoughtfully argued and written in a light-hearted style, with some neat little asides in the margins. Considering the subject matter, it's an enormously enjoyable read; I'd have like to have Mr Craven as my teacher at school.
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Michael Olson
5.0 out of 5 stars A Practical Framework for Climate Risk Decision-Making
Reviewed in the United States on 12 October 2009
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We've all been inundated with the pros and cons of the global warming and climate change debate. And probably most of us are inclined to believe that the world will warm, polar bears will suffer, lawns will turn brown, and cars will get smaller. The breezy hillsides will become populated with windmills, the southwest desert will host large solar-thermal farms, our utilities will watch our energy use through smart meters, and new power transmission lines will link wind and solar power to our population centers. All this change will happen to run our electric cars, our virtual meetings, our air conditioning, our refrigerators, and our wide-screen televisions. That doesn't sound particularly disrupting, just a little expensive. Between that and a health care solution, we will be set for the 21st Century.

Not so fast Bubba. Have you really taken a look at the assumptions you are making and how you arrived at you conclusion? For most of us, I suspect our thinking is,

`Yeah, we may get warmer but the jury is still out on how bad the impact might be even if we could do much about it. And I can hardly afford my mortgage, my health insurance, my car payment, the college tuition, my tax bill, my (taxpayer) share of all of these under-funded pension plans, and the occasional vacation to Yosemite or the Grand Canyon the way it is. I think I'll pass on most of these expensive carbon-footprint reducing actions.'

Global warming is not yet `in our face' - real, ugly, and frightening - so it is easy to discount the need to `really' do something about it. Something that takes conscious decisions that reduce the choices we thought we would be able to make like buying that useful SUV, acquiring that 52" LED flat panel HDTV, investing in that continuing education tuition, or expanding out of our cramped home as the kids start arriving. It's all due to a biological fault in this phase of our evolution. In the last 10,000 years our `fight or flight' quick reaction mechanism has become less and less essential to our survival. Instead, it is becoming more important to exercise longer-term planning skills that have emerged over the last thirty years. These skills include scenario planning, risk-reward analysis (expected value), real options, and systems thinking. Unfortunately, these are not nearly as natural and persuasive and suffer unexpected `long tail' effects as opposed to clear `in your face - fight or flight' decision-making.

Greg Craven addresses our shortcomings for effective long term planning to protect ourselves and, more importantly, our children and their children. He has used his own experience in teaching students about physics and chemistry to engage them in refining his `rational decision' process. How to sort through all of the contrary points-of-view, focusing not on searching for what is the right answer about the extent and degree of global warming risk, but rather on what we risk if we make the wrong bet. His approach is to focus on what we control - our choices - and how to bolster our ability to think longer term by framing the arguments from pro-con advocates, weighing the credibility of various spokespersons, creating a decision matrix (what Nature does vs. what We choose to do), assessing the risk-reward, and making your choice for action or not. This approach is applicable to a wide variety of widely debated issues so becoming comfortable with Mr. Craven's approach has benefits well beyond your global warming thinking and decision making.

Of course, what we as individuals do on these global community issues only has a significant impact if all of us join in. So ultimately there is the need for a social movement to create a `tipping point' for effective action. This is necessary to develop enough support to reach that "angle of repose' in which a small additional nudge creates the positive social feedback to generate self-sustaining behavioral change to deal with global warming risk - in time - to anticipate and overcome the inherent delayed responses, massive momentums, non-linear tipping points, and feedbacks in the global climate system. Mr. Craven's framework will help the proactive reader create their own story on what to believe and how to respond to these real challenges that shape our future.
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David B
5.0 out of 5 stars Great book on global warming.
Reviewed in the United Kingdom on 5 September 2011
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This book helps you to make up your own mind on wether or not global warming exists or not, or if it is man made or not. It has sections on how to evaluate evidence according to it's source and weight, and how to effectively come to a decision based on the evidence in front of you; it also explains that we cannot wait until ALL the evidence is there before making a decision, because that simply would not happen. There is of course a basic explanation of what all the arguments are about. The author Greg Craven is an American high school science teacher with a gift for putting his subject over in an accessible, fun and knowledgeable way, although occasionally his geeky classroom style is a little grating at times. He has posted many videos on You Tube on this subject, the first one entitled "The most terrifying video you'll ever see". I would recommend that you see that video first before buying this book to get a better idea of where he is coming from; he is a very likeable chap. By the way, it is not terrifying to watch, so don't worry. It is this video which got me to buy the book.
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Mamberueth
4.0 out of 5 stars Good book
Reviewed in Canada on 16 February 2015
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Good book, pass it on...
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