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Highly recommendable for people interested in managing risks,
Rezension bezieht sich auf: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Taschenbuch)I have read this book 3 times since I bought it because it illustrates how you can avoid being trapped in a situation where you might take decisions without taking into account the impact of highly improbable escenarios.
In this book, Mr. Taleb explains with various examples how people tend to make big bets based only on the probability of something happening but eventually lose big time, even if the probability of losing was very small. As a trivial example, he compares the decisions made by some investors in the stock market with the decision to play russian roulette. The probability of losing playing russian roulette is "only" 1 in 6 while the probability of winning is a wonderful 5 in 6 but if you lose, you lose big time! This danger is usually ignored in the stock market by brokers and investors because the probability of failure seems to be laughable and they minimize the fact that they are betting big money but as it has been seen time and time again (take the example of the recent financial crisis), the investors fall into this fallacy over and over.
If you want to discover more about the fallacy of betting big time in highly improbable situations, you have to read this book.