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The Little Book That Still Beats the Market: Little Books. Big Profits Series, Book 29

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Ever since computer databases have become more available and computing time and memory have been cheap, anyone can take investment history and devise a "back-tested" solution that would have made you a fortune.

I don't recall any version of such a scheme that ever held up for long when it was then used to make investments going forward. Why? Conditions change.

Mr. Greenblatt's approach uses a 17 year history during one of the strongest bull markets in American investing history to come up with his approach. Will this approach work during a flat or declining market? Who knows?

Mr. Greenblatt argues (unpersuasively to my mind) that his approach will continue to work because the method fails to work very consistently over periods of less than three years. That will discourage anyone from using it for very long.

The approach is summarized on pages 134 and 135. Basically, you go to his Web site (www.magicformulainvesting.com) and use the data there to pick companies with a low price relative to buy 20-30 stocks over the next year (a few every 3 months). You sell each one a day or so after a year has passed (to get capital gains treatment), and replace it with another stock. You pick a minimum size market cap (he suggests at least $50 million), and you select from among the stocks for companies which traded at the lowest multiple of EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) which had the highest ration of EBIT to the sum of net working capital plus net fixed assets in the prior 12 months. The Web site does this for you now for free.

Here is another practical problem with the book. You need to have quite a lot of money to start with or trading fees will eat up your capital. Let's say you have $10,000 to start. You will be making 60 trades a year to buy and sell 30 stocks. Assuming you pay on-line commission rates of $10 a trade, that's $600 gone to start. If you pay more for trading the problem is worse. So to be efficient, you will probably have to be able to commit at least $25,000. More is better.

I would have been more impressed if the approach (which is a variation on value investing) had included a search for global value. The U.S. stock market is much more expensive now than many other markets. A bargain in an over-priced market may not be such a bargain after all.

Mr. Greenblatt does have a nice way of explaining his ideas. Any teenager could follow this book. I suggest that the book's best use is in introducing teenagers to the idea that Mr. Market is way too volatile in setting "correct" prices, and you can take advantage of that by buying low. Then hand your teenager a copy of The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham to understand how you can find bargains. If that approach seems too complex for your teenager, provide next a copy of John Bogle's Commonsense on Mutual Funds.

Whether or not this book's "magic formula" delivers the results that author Joel Greenblatt promises, the book itself presents a lucid, simple explanation of investing in the stock market. Unlike many who write about investing in stocks and offer formulas for success, Greenblatt is remarkably honest in his discussion of the difficulty of beating the market and remarkably modest in his claims (although perhaps not quite as restrained in referring to his Web site). We find that the chief merit of this bestseller is not its formula for success (which derives from guru Benjamin Graham's value approach), but rather its clear, step-by-step introduction to the fundamentals of investing for novices. The author makes the market understandable to a child. That is quite an achievement.

unter vielen Titeln zum Thema ist diese Abhandlung über das vermittelte Wissen, die Logik und Einfachheit des verfolgten Ansatzes und die vielen weiteren Beigaben, die ein interessierter Leser nebenbei aufnehmen kann, unbedingt zu empfehlen

Dieses Buch ist gut geschrieben und vermittelt das Konzept auf verständliche und unterhaltsame Art und Weise.

Das Buch basiert auf die Ideen von Benjamin Graham und Warren Buffet und entwickelt sie weiter. Es wird auch erklärt wieso man heute sehr schrwierig Aktien nach den ursprünglichen Kriterien von Benjamin Graham finden kann.

Das Buch erklärt die "magische" Formel für Aktien, die den Markt auf lange Sicht schlagen, so einfach, dass es am Ende überaschend ist, wie komplex die eigentliche mathematische Formel ist.
Die für die Formel benötigten Kennzahlen sind in den herkömmlichen Stock Screener nicht enthalten - desewegen finde die die begleitende Webseite, die die Formel implementiert sehr hilfreich.
Wie für jede Aktienstrategie sind für die Realisierung von der Idee aus diesem Buch viel Geduld (manchmal bis 3 Jahre), viel Disziplin, emotionsloses Handelnd und nicht an letzter Stelle auch Kapital notwendig.

Wenn man selber eine professionelle Aktien Analyse machen könnte, sagt das Buch, dass die Formel schon mit 5 bis 8 "magischen" Aktien funktioniert, ansonsten muss man mindestens 20 Aktien kaufen, damit man statistisch auf der sichere Seite ist.

Damit das ganze funktioniert muss man in der Lage sein über ein Jahr 15-20 Aktien zu kaufen und nachher 3-4 Mal im Jahr neu zu kaufen/zu verkaufen. Sehr wichtig ist auch, dass man dabei nur ein geringer Anteil von seinem Investment Kapital (z.B. 50%) einsetzt - es geht nämlich um instabilen Aktien die mit sich höheres Risiko bringen.

Es wird klar, dass diese Vorangenswiese für 90% von den herkömmlichen Privatanleger so leider nicht umsetzbar ist, trotzdem bin ich der Meinung, dass Buch für jeden Anleger nutzlich sein kann und empfehle definitiv den Kauf.
Auch wenn man aktuell nicht das Konzept realisieren kann oder will -
auf lange Sicht sind die Ideen darin sehr sinnvoll und verständig.

So far I haven't read a book dealing with investing that was so well written. The way he describes the relevant factors concerning the valuation of a company is enlightening and enchanting but at the same time straightforward so that you cannot stop reading. It is a must read that guides you through the factors that really count. Most of the available books daling with the same topic make it just to complicated. Greenblatt manages it to go through the relevant points in a way that only somebody who has a superior insight in the matter can.