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Would-Be Worlds: How Simulation Is Changing the Frontiers of Science [Englisch] [Taschenbuch]

John L. Casti (Autor)
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Produktinformation

  • Taschenbuch: 256 Seiten
  • Verlag: Wiley & Sons; Auflage: New edition (Februar 1998)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ISBN-10: 0471196932
  • ISBN-13: 978-0471196938
  • Größe und/oder Gewicht: 23,1 x 15 x 1,8 cm
  • Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 4.0 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (1 Kundenrezension)
  • Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 967.413 in Englische Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Englische Bücher)

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John L. Casti
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Produktbeschreibungen

Amazon.com

Is there a science of economics? Can we actually conduct experiments to test its hypotheses? For once, the ethical and practical answers match: even were we willing to experiment on our fellows, our power to effect precise changes or to isolate control groups is limited, to say the least. But what if we could experiment on a smaller, simpler version of the world market? John L. Casti points the way toward just such a science once-removed of complex phenomena in Would-Be Worlds, an accessible overview of the use of computers in modeling and simulation.

From the Cambrian explosion to the Albuquerque transportation system to the NFL, we are shown how a few simple rules can give rise to dazzling complexity, yielding insights undreamed of before the silicon revolution. Casti touches on mathematics, evolutionary biology, biochemistry, economics, logic, literature, and meteorology, always with clarity and sympathy for the lay reader. At a time when children spend hours with their computers building and maintaining cities, ecosystems, and planets, Would-Be Worlds shows us how this play foreshadows the investigations these young scientists will pursue in the future. --Rob Lightner -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine vergriffene oder nicht verfügbare Ausgabe dieses Titels.

From Kirkus Reviews

Computer simulation has arrived big time, in everything from movie effects to election forecasts; here's an expert's overview. Beginning with an attempt to predict the outcome of a Super Bowl, Casti (Searching for Certainty, 1991) chose a popular but fairly sophisticated computer game program to play a series of simulated games between the 1995 opponents, the 49ers and Chargers. He uses his results (which suggest either that the actual game was a fluke or that the program is flawed) to make several basic points about computer simulations and models. They can be predictive or explanatory; perfect fidelity to the real world is not the sole virtue; and they are often most useful in analysis of complex phenomena that in the real world are either dangerous to meddle with (such as the flight patterns over a busy airport) or very rare (the collision of a meteor with Earth). He then gets down to specifics, describing programs to analyze language, to generate artificial ``life,'' or to forecast the weather. A long and fascinating chapter is devoted to limitations and paradoxes that limit our ability to turn every problem into an easily computable simulation. We get close-up looks at a system modeling the traffic patterns at rush hour in Albuquerque; at neural nets, which attempt to simulate the structure of the human brain; and at ``Sugarscape,'' which extracts basic economic principles from a pure supply-and-demand environment. Casti's subject sometimes leads him into esoteric territory, but he tries to keep it down-to-earth with examples from real life. At the same time, he is not afraid to plunge into such deep waters as G”del's Incompleteness Theorem. There is the occasional mathematical formula, but readers without advanced math should be able to follow the argument--especially because of the excellent use of illustrations and diagrams. A very solid and useful discussion of the theory and practice of computer modeling in the physical and social sciences. -- Copyright ©1996, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved. -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine vergriffene oder nicht verfügbare Ausgabe dieses Titels.
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Von Ein Kunde
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Casti is a lucid and entertaining writer and has sufficient depth in his own subject and breadth in other disciplines as to be well placed to write a book on modelling and simulation. This is an excellent introduction to some of the mathematical, logical, and philosophical problems of and raised by the increasing use of simulation to investigate 'real-world' problems. It assumes no background beyond a general interest in science.

If this book has weaknesses they tend to be of the variety that afflicts much modern writing in popular science. Editors rather than authors, perhaps? A sizeable portion of the plates and diagrams add nothing to the book ("gee, John, this is a popular science book - we gotta have some pictures") plus a preference for rushing to mine the next source of the 'gee-whiz' factor rather than grappling with consequences.

The strapline on the cover is 'how simulation is changing the frontiers of science' and I'm not at all sure that this question is answered. The last chapter makes an unconvincing attempt to be a summary, but is in fact the least interesting of the five trailing off rather weakly into a 'what we really need is a theory of complex systems' position.

But, the acid test - did I learn anything from this book? Most definitely, yes. - Ashley Oliver
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13 von 14 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Useful non-technical treatment of modelling & simulation 3. Februar 1997
Von Ein Kunde - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
Casti is a lucid and entertaining writer and has sufficient depth in his own subject and breadth in other disciplines as to be well placed to write a book on modelling and simulation. This is an excellent introduction to some of the mathematical, logical, and philosophical problems of and raised by the increasing use of simulation to investigate 'real-world' problems. It assumes no background beyond a general interest in science.

If this book has weaknesses they tend to be of the variety that afflicts much modern writing in popular science. Editors rather than authors, perhaps? A sizeable portion of the plates and diagrams add nothing to the book ("gee, John, this is a popular science book - we gotta have some pictures") plus a preference for rushing to mine the next source of the 'gee-whiz' factor rather than grappling with consequences.

The strapline on the cover is 'how simulation is changing the frontiers of science' and I'm not at all sure that this question is answered. The last chapter makes an unconvincing attempt to be a summary, but is in fact the least interesting of the five trailing off rather weakly into a 'what we really need is a theory of complex systems' position.

But, the acid test - did I learn anything from this book? Most definitely, yes. - Ashley Oliver
6 von 6 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
A book with a good question! 9. Oktober 2001
Von N. Emrah AYDINONAT - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
This is one of those books that address important questions. But unfortunately it is not always possible to answer these important questions. This book is about "would-be-worlds", on computer simulations of real life phenomena. The question is how can one explain real world facts with such simulations that look extremely distant from the real world. Good question, but it is very hard to answer. Casti does not answer this question, he has attempts, for example the section "Models for All Occasions" is a good step, but he can not deliver the good. Why? Maybe because he spends a lot of space introducing and discussing various examples of simulations. Maybe because he did not want to play the "philosopher of science" in this book. I do not know, but most probably he thinks that these computational models, and simulations are useful anyway. So he does not tell us how we can trust these models, but he tries to amaze us with these models. But is that bad? No!

Although practical and philosophical questions about computer simulations are very important there are still few people thinking about these issues. Casti's book directs attention to these issues and questions. Moreover, this is a book for the layman! Thus, it is good to introduce different sorts of would-be-worlds. Casti is excellent in introducing things!

Briefly, although Casti does not tell how it is possible to make inferences about the real world from such artificial worlds, this is a good book to start thinking about the philosophy and methodology of explaining with computer simulations.

5 von 7 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Remarkably mediocre book 23. Dezember 2000
Von "smokey_joe" - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
As someone who enjoys popular science books, dabbles in complexity theory, and works in modeling and simulation, I was really looking forward to this book. Unfortunately, it is not well structured and the author seems to be unable to decide whether he's writing about complexity or M&S. Yes, they are intertwined, but there are several books that treat the subject of complexity very well. What I was looking forward to here was a behind the scenes look at the experimental aparatus of complexity theory: Modeling and Simulation. Whether its due to lack of understanding of the art of M&S or an excessive love affair with complexity, the book comes off half-heartedly discussing both. If you want to learn about complexity, read something by John Holland. If you want to learn about M&S, read anything but this.
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