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Why Most Things Fail: And How to Avoid It
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Pressestimmen
"'Engrossing and entertaining... A careful, comprehensible analysis of the limits of human rationality's ability to control the world.' Alasdair Palmer, Sunday Telegraph 'Gripping stuff.' Krishna Guha, Financial Times"
Kurzbeschreibung
This is the essential book on why some businesses fail...and how to avoid it. From the best-selling author of "The Death of Economics" and "Butterfly Economics", this is a ground-breaking look at a truth all too seldom acknowledged: most commercial and public policy ventures will not succeed. Paul Ormerod draws upon recent advances in biology to help us understand the surprising consequences of the "Iron Law of Failure". And, he shows what strategies corporations, businesses and governments will need to adopt to stand a chance of prospering in a world where only one thing is certain.
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Format:Taschenbuch
The title should be: « why most economic models fail or have poor predictive ability ». Really, it is all about the models. Although the author demonstrates perfect understanding of the subject, I was expecting something more fun. Some special cases of failure whether in corporate management, evolutionary biology or finance with recurrent characteristics related to failure would have been nice. Given the high scientific standards exhibited by the author I also expected a discussion of some psychological biases connected to failure.
Game theory is treated all throughout this book. As with the other theories it is demonstrated why it does not work. It seems fairer to me to talk about limitations rather than failure (epistemological elegance, I guess). I don't know why most of the people who treat this subject in business books forget to talk about its most basic concept: dominated strategies (weakly of strongly). Because this concept is an everyday concept, one that anybody can use. Moreover if you do not apply it in some way , whether intuitively or formally, whenever you face an uncertain outcome, there is strong probability that you will have to look for a new job very soon.
One will find at the end of the book a VERY nice presentation of power laws and their applications and also a discussion of models of endogenous and exogenous species extinction. In itself this last part makes this book a valuable investment in time and money.
Game theory is treated all throughout this book. As with the other theories it is demonstrated why it does not work. It seems fairer to me to talk about limitations rather than failure (epistemological elegance, I guess). I don't know why most of the people who treat this subject in business books forget to talk about its most basic concept: dominated strategies (weakly of strongly). Because this concept is an everyday concept, one that anybody can use. Moreover if you do not apply it in some way , whether intuitively or formally, whenever you face an uncertain outcome, there is strong probability that you will have to look for a new job very soon.
One will find at the end of the book a VERY nice presentation of power laws and their applications and also a discussion of models of endogenous and exogenous species extinction. In itself this last part makes this book a valuable investment in time and money.
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2 von 2 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Unfocused and disjointed
30. Juni 2006
Format:Taschenbuch
The topic is an interesting one and I give the author credit for trying to pick out key themes across a very broad and complicated landscape. However, I found the book frustrating and annoying in a number of ways. Most importantly, the book never manges to find and develop a theme; it seems to meander from topic to topic. In addition, the author is far too enamored of simple computer models and spends too much timing belaboring how they work, their iterations and marveling at how, with the right inputs, they can show outputs similar to what is observed in real life. In addition, much of what appears to be the point of the book hinges on the assumption that the extinction of a species is a failure similar to a company ceasing to be a separate stand-alone entity. However, firms disappear for many reasons other than bankruptcy - for example, I don't think the stockholders and employees of Pixar thought it a failure when it was acquired by Disney. Less significantly, while Macbeth is a great play and Evelyn Waugh a great novelist his attempt to weave his many literary loves into his theory is awkward and clumsy. He also touches on interesting topics (the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, the pros and cons of monopolies, evolution, the introduction of New Coke, the correct strategy for playing The Price is Right) but only provides superficial commentary that is very unsatisfying. Finally, he has a habit of stating the obvious as if he has made a great discovery (two car company representatives expressed great confidence in how their product lines would perform but the third said the outcome would depend on how costumers liked the product - could it be possible that companies aren't certain about the outcomes of their actions? Could it be that companies must make decisions and those decisions could turn out to be bad decisions? Should Paul Ormerod give his acceptance speech in Swedish, or would English be acceptable?)
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