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A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extraordinary Change [Englisch] [Gebundene Ausgabe]

John Petersen

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Amazon.com: 4.3 von 5 Sternen  17 Rezensionen
22 von 24 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
3.0 von 5 Sternen More 2012 8. Oktober 2008
Von R. Elliott Ingersoll - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe|Verifizierter Kauf
Well here is yet another 2012 book. Don't get me wrong - this is far better than most. John Petersen outlines his view of what is going wrong, what the possible scenarios are, and what directions might prove resourceful. The problem is of course that most of the things he suggests will not show up on the "radar" for most people.

There are some contradictions and fact-related problems in the book. On the one hand Petersen admits (quoting Ilya Prigogene) that no one can predict the future and that unique, novel emergents can arise that "save the day" so to speak. He never considers though that unique, novel emergents may arise that solve some problems while not fundamentally changning the power structures (e.g. a new way to make internal combustion engines so efficient that the oil reserves we have would last 5 times longer than anticipated).

Petersen also speaks glowingly of progress (with some justification) but seems to ignore the problems with things like cloning, cold fusion, and saltwater agriculture.

In the end I'd say this is a book worth reading though because it is concise and in being concise helps the reader make her or his own position an object of awareness. And once you know where you stand on some of these issues, you know what you're willing to try.
14 von 15 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen A Must Read Call to Action 5. Juni 2008
Von Jerry J - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
John L. Petersen, the well regarded futurist and head of The Arlington Institute, has written A Vision for 2012, a must read timely essay-length call to action for citizens and governments. In Petersen's view, global warming, fossil fuel depletion, recent economic market disruptions and more, portend massive societal and planetary disruption in the next decade. For some, the year 2012 is a year of foretold doom. 2012 is Petersen's symbolic way of saying "Stop thinking about tomorrow" as the song goes, and start thinking about today. A self-proclaimed optimist, Petersen balances one set of trend lines with another that point to scientific and technological breakthroughs, from new medicines, to the Internet, as holding out the possibility for resolving the challenges we face. But there is no way around the need for government planning and action, and here Petersen is flying on a wing and a prayer. As the book also concedes, governments and society in general usually act conservatively and plan and deal in the less painful policy world of incremental, short term advance until the crisis occurs (think about our failure to address the ticking time bomb of entitlement obligations). We have a lot of political talk about Manhattan projects to develop alternatives to oil or reduce greenhouse emissions (called for in the book) but we know that governments and the citizenry usually act after the fact (e.g. Katrina). Global cooperation is even more difficult and the United States, which the author calls on to lead, has not exactly led over the last decade (think Kyoto) Petersen hopes it can be different if we work together---using technologies like the collaborative Internet---to think, plan, and advocate for change together. Read the book.
14 von 17 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Good coverage of our future trajectory 10. Juni 2008
Von Kenneth Dabkowski - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
This book covers many scenarios of decline, examples and data showing us the rate of accelerating change and many arguments for increasing resilience personally, as a community, and nationally. The changes we shall face on our journey to 2012 we should consider moral and solvable. These issues are drastic, human, and not bound to political party. John's book creates a good introduction to this debate - we should have the debate and together develop a brighter future.
4 von 4 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen A Good Overview and Call to Action 25. Oktober 2009
Von James H. Lee - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe|Verifizierter Kauf
Many people are seeing 2012 as a turning point of sorts for social, economic, and environmental change. While John Peterson is known primarily for his work on wild card scenarios, this essay-length book serves as a useful summary of emerging futures for the coming years.

A Vision for 2012 is a wake-up call for leaders to prepare for game-changing events, such as climate change, peak oil, pandemics, and financial collapse. It conveys a sense of urgency to address issues sooner rather than later. From Peterson's perspective, these events seem to be less a matter of "if" and more of a matter of "when".

Taken on a stand-alone basis, any of these scenarios could contribute to systems break-down, eventually leading to reorganization on a much more de-centralized level. Together, a convergence of these events could lead to a collective emergency the likes of which we have never seen before. Peterson favors anticipatory action and sees a shift towards organizations characterized by a greater degree of local self-reliance and sustainability.

The purpose of the book is advocacy for futures thinking at an executive level. While those in the futures field are well-aware of many of these scenarios, the book was clearly written as an overview for leaders in community, industry and government. Peterson also outlines a range of policy priorities and initiatives to mitigate the potential disruptions.

This is the opportunity and the vision -- creating a collective shift towards a better future in anticipation of systems stress. Through the application of foresight, we have a much greater likelihood of generating a positive outcome with the least amount of disruption.

At about 100 pages, it serves as a concise summary of the challenges that we may potentially face over the coming years.
2 von 2 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen A Vision for 2012: Planning for Extrordinary Change 18. Oktober 2008
Von Peter Spence - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
Very perceptive summary of the current and potential changes that will affect the world. Quite stimulating and, in many ways, stark and threatening but this is reality. Whilst the recommended courses of action are sound, there is still substantial development required in the level of thinking. However, I found the book to be vey good and would strongly recommend it. Everybody should be aware of the actual possibilities and promptly respond. We are already in negative time with regard to many of the problems raised - climate change, oil & fossil fuels, global financial position.....
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