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Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management (Englisch) Taschenbuch – 22. Januar 2009

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Pressestimmen

From reviews of the first edition: '… provides a very useful stepping stone to understand the limitations of the Black-Scholes world to that of a more generalized theory of financial markets … Bouchard and Potters will then provide the reader with an insight and generalization that they may otherwise miss with direct application of more 'traditional' theory to the financial markets. To the experienced reader of financial theory, the book provides a useful reminder of the limitations of traditional theories and a number of useful tools that can be used in the more generalized world of financial risk.' David A. Scott C. Math. FIMA, Mathematics Today

'This book does not try to be a comprehensive text on theoretical finance, but instead picks out classical problems in finance that are overlooked by the generalizations introduced by beautiful, ideal models such as the Black and Scholes model and discusses tools, concepts and paradigms of statistical finance that can contribute to the resolution of such problems … However, given the themes treated by the book and the expertise and knowledge of the authors, Theory of Financial Risks should certainly find a place on the bookshelves of professionals in risk management who are interested in new quantitative methods of risk minimization.' Rosario Mantegna, Institute of Physics

'The book is well written and self-contained … It is recommended to anyone interested in a new and fresh approach to the dynamics of financial markets.' Journal of Statistical Physics

'The authors dutifully thread the relations between different financial securities and statistical estimation, rewarding the reader with an understanding that could never be obtained from a purely statistical text … the feeling one is left with after putting the book down is one of time well spent.' Risk

'Coming to the data with fewer preconceptions than those with professional training in finance, and applying sophisticated tools, the authors offer fresh and valuable insights into financial markets.' Mathematical Reviews

'This is a terrific book. Some extremely exciting new ideas, questions, and techniques are coming from physics, and many were pioneered by the authors. This book will teach both academics and practitioners a new way of doing finance.' Xavier Gabaix, MIT

'An outstanding and original presentation of quantitative finance from a physics perspective.' Nassin Nicholas Taleb, Empirica LLC, author of Fooled by Randomness

'It is rare to read a quantitative finance book that has anything new to say. It is even rarer to find such a book written by those who know what they are talking about. Bouchaud and Potters are two of the most innovative, imaginative and experienced researches in finance. In this second edition of their ground-breaking work, they go even further into their field of econo-physics, a field that is changing the way we view the financial markets. Each page is packed with more ideas than most people put into an entire book. An inspirational book to be studied carefully and savoured.' Paul Wilmott

Über das Produkt

The substantially expanded 2003 second edition of this ground-breaking book summarizes theoretical developments in statistical tools to measure financial markets. A classic reference for graduate students and researchers working in econophysics, and professionals in the analytical markets.

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Physiker sind Genies. Ausnahmslos:-). Dies findet Ausdruck in einer Menge Details. Das Genie betrachtet jede Problemstellung, und sei sie auch noch so alt, aus der Sicht eines Kindes und startet am theoretischen Nullpunkt. Erkenntnisse der wissenschaftlichen Vorgänger sind irrelevant, weil diese
1)(Erkenntnisse) bisher ja auch nicht geholfen haben, dass Problem zu lösen
2)(Vorgänger) generell blöder sind als die Genies (ohne Beschränkung der Allgemeinheit).
Dies äussert sich in vielen Details. Da wird mal zappzarapp eine neue Notation eingeführt, bzw die Notation des eigenen Faches auf das neue Gebiet übertragen und von Reihenentwicklung meist einfach das Ergebniss präsentiert. Für den mathematisch unterbelichteten Leser, wie z.B. den Autor dieser Rezension, ist es phasenweise anstrengend den Genies zu folgen. Eigentlich dürfte ich mir kein Urteil über dieses Buch erlauben, da ich , so glaube ich, nicht alles vollständig verstanden oder nachvollzogen habe. Ich urteile dennoch. Und zwar wie folgt:

Dies ist schon die zweite Edition des Buches. Das neue an der zweiten Edition? Derivative Pricing! Die erste Edition war ausschliesslich eine Betrachtung des Risikos. In all seinen Facetten. Der Aufbau des Buches ist recht eigenwillig und die Notation für nicht-Physiker teilweise etwas anstrengend. Hat man sich aber mal eingelesen, macht das Buch Spass. Grossen Spass. Bouchaud und Potters sind Physiker, die beim französischen Hedge Fund "Capital Fund Management" arbeiten. Ein sehr erfrischendes Buch. Das Quant Finance 1x1 wird mal kurz links liegen gelassen und bei null angefangen. Hier folgt nix einfach mal so einer geometrischen brownschen Bewegung (schon gar nicht mit konstanten Parametern)!
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This text has a nice discussion of Levy distributions and (important!) discusses why the central limit theorem does not apply to the tails of a distribution in the limit of many independent random events. An exponential distribution is given as an example how the CLT fails. I was first happy to see a chapter devoted to portfolio selection, but the chapter (like most of the book) is very difficult to follow (I gave up on that chapter, unhappily, because it looked interesting). The notation could have been better (to be quite honest, the notation is horrible), and the arguments (many of which are original) could have been made sharper and clearer. For my taste, too many arguments in the text rely on uncontrolled approximations, with Gaussian results as special limiting cases. The chapters on options are original, introducing their idea of history-dependent strategies (however, to get a strategy other than the delta-hedge does not not require history-dependence, CAPM is an example), but the predictions too often go in the direction of showing how Gaussian returns can be retrieved in some limit (I find this the opposite of convincing!). For an introduction to options, the 1973 Black-Scholes paper is still the best (aside from the wrong claim that CAPM and the delta-hedge yield the same results). The argument in the introduction in favor of 'randomness' as the origin of macroscopic law left me as cold as a cucumber. On page 4 a density is called 'invariant' under change of variable whereas 'scalar' is the correct word (a common error in many texts on relativity). The explanation of Ito calculus is inventive but inadequate (see instead Baxter and Rennie for a correct and readable treatment, one the forms the basis for new research on local volatility). Also, utlility is once mentioned but never criticized. Had the book been more pedagogically written then one could well have used it as an introductory text, given the nice choice of topics discussed.
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'Econophysics' (the application of techniques developed in the physical sciences to economic, business and financial problems) has emerged as a newly active field of interdisciplinary research. 'Theory of Financial Risks' (written by two of the pioneers of this field) highlights very clearly the contribution that physicists can make to quantitative finance.
From the outset the point of view of the book is one of empirical observation (of the statistical properties of asset price dynamics) followed by the development of theories attempting to explain these results and enabling quantitative predictions to be made. This philosophy is reflected in the structure of the book. After a brief account of relevant mathematical concepts from probability theory the statistics of empirical financial data is analysed in detail. A key result from this analysis is the observation that the correlation matrix (measuring the correlation in asset price movements between pairs of assets) is dominated by measurement noise (which, as the authors observe, has serious consequences for the construction of optimal portfolios). Chapter 3 begins the core theme of the book with a discussion of measures of risk and the construction of optimal portfolios. A central result of this chapter is that minimisation of the variance of a portfolio may actually increase its Value-at-Risk.
The theme of improved measures of risk continues in chapters 4 and 5 which focus on futures and options. A new theory for measuring the risk in derivative pricing is presented.
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Die hilfreichsten Kundenrezensionen auf Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: HASH(0x94b6ba74) von 5 Sternen 9 Rezensionen
21 von 24 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x94b7f744) von 5 Sternen Summarises new advances in quantifying financial risk 19. September 2000
Von Dr Craig Mounfield - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe
`Econophysics' (the application of techniques developed in the physical sciences to economic, business and financial problems) has emerged as a newly active field of interdisciplinary research. `Theory of Financial Risks' (written by two of the pioneers of this field) highlights very clearly the contribution that physicists can make to quantitative finance.
From the outset the point of view of the book is one of empirical observation (of the statistical properties of asset price dynamics) followed by the development of theories attempting to explain these results and enabling quantitative predictions to be made. This philosophy is reflected in the structure of the book. After a brief account of relevant mathematical concepts from probability theory the statistics of empirical financial data is analysed in detail. A key result from this analysis is the observation that the correlation matrix (measuring the correlation in asset price movements between pairs of assets) is dominated by measurement noise (which, as the authors observe, has serious consequences for the construction of optimal portfolios). Chapter 3 begins the core theme of the book with a discussion of measures of risk and the construction of optimal portfolios. A central result of this chapter is that minimisation of the variance of a portfolio may actually increase its Value-at-Risk.
The theme of improved measures of risk continues in chapters 4 and 5 which focus on futures and options. A new theory for measuring the risk in derivative pricing is presented. In the appropriate limit (continuous-time, Gaussian statistics) this model reproduces the central results of the Black-Scholes model - namely that one can construct a portfolio of options and assets such that the residual risk is identically equal to zero. However as the book has constantly highlighted, these market conditions are simply not observed in practice. Moreover the new theory presented allows one to calculate the residual risk which exists under more general and realistic market conditions (allowing the development of improved trading strategies).
In summary this book highlights very clearly many of the inadequacies of current financial theories and presents a number of new approaches, based upon concepts developed in statistical physics, to overcome these problems. It is to be recommended to both students of finance as well as to professional analysts as a good example of how an interdisciplinary approach to financial engineering may yield improved measures of risk.
26 von 31 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x94b7f798) von 5 Sternen Fat tails and more 5. Juni 2002
Von Professor Joseph L. McCauley - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe
This text has a nice discussion of Levy distributions and (important!) discusses why the central limit theorem does not apply to the tails of a distribution in the limit of many independent random events. An exponential distribution is given as an example how the CLT fails. I was first happy to see a chapter devoted to portfolio selection, but the chapter (like most of the book) is very difficult to follow (I gave up on that chapter, unhappily, because it looked interesting). The notation could have been better (to be quite honest, the notation is horrible), and the arguments (many of which are original) could have been made sharper and clearer. For my taste, too many arguments in the text rely on uncontrolled approximations, with Gaussian results as special limiting cases. The chapters on options are original, introducing their idea of history-dependent strategies (however, to get a strategy other than the delta-hedge does not not require history-dependence, CAPM is an example), but the predictions too often go in the direction of showing how Gaussian returns can be retrieved in some limit (I find this the opposite of convincing!). For an introduction to options, the 1973 Black-Scholes paper is still the best (aside from the wrong claim that CAPM and the delta-hedge yield the same results). The argument in the introduction in favor of 'randomness' as the origin of macroscopic law left me as cold as a cucumber. On page 4 a density is called 'invariant' under change of variable whereas 'scalar' is the correct word (a common error in many texts on relativity). The explanation of Ito calculus is inventive but inadequate (see instead Baxter and Rennie for a correct and readable treatment, one the forms the basis for new research on local volatility). Also, utlility is once mentioned but never criticized. Had the book been more pedagogically written then one could well have used it as an introductory text, given the nice choice of topics discussed.
13 von 15 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x94b7fbd0) von 5 Sternen An Unconventional and Engaging Treatment of Risk 15. September 2000
Von Raymond J. Hawkins - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe
In 'More Heat Than Light', Philip Mirowski observed that the expertise brought to economics by the " ... influx of engineers, physicists manqués, and mathematicians during the Great Depression and after ... did not get parlayed into novel physical/economic metaphors." In the literature of the new field of "econophysics" there are promising indications that the recent influx into finance following the end of the cold war will not repeat this. An exciting addition to this literature is the recent publication of this augmented and English version of Théorie des Risques Financiers.
In this monograph Drs. Bouchaud and Potters present much of their research together with related contemporary and previous work including that of Bachelier. Their "physicists viewpoint" of comparing theory to observed data appears early in the first chapter where time-series data illustrating 3 market crashes motivates their review of the basic notions of probability with an emphasis on non-Gaussian probability densities. This is followed by an interesting data-intensive comparison of these notions to the statistics of real prices including, as examples, the S&P 500 index, the DEM/USD exchange rate, and the Bund futures contract. The results of this comparison between theory and observation are then applied in the chapters that follow in which portfolio optimization, risk management, and the valuation of derivative securities are discussed.
The authors' approach in general, and to derivative securities in particular, is both unconventional and refreshing. It will appeal to those who have wondered if stochastic calculus is really required to price options. They demonstrate how a number of well-known results can be recovered in the appropriate (usually Gaussian) limits and provide an even-handed discussion of the risk associated with failing to include non-Gaussian effects.
This book is readily accessible to readers who have/can read either McQuarrie's 'Statistical Mechanics' or Ingersoll's 'Theory of Financial Decision Making'. I enjoyed this book because of the authors' unconventional approach, stat-mech style, interesting comparisons of theory and data, and the important implications of their approach for risk measurement and management
31 von 42 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x94b7ff9c) von 5 Sternen Reply to the previous reviewer 29. Juli 2001
Von Bouchaud - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe
Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, the previous reviewer prefered to remain anonymous. Otherwise, we would happily have argued with him privately. But his review contains so many erroneous and obnoxious statements that we feel we have to reply publicly, at least on the most important points.
a) After spending a full chapter (2) on empirical data and faithful models to describe them, we only price options using...the Brownian motion, says our reviewer (not even the Black-Scholes model, adds he). Well, either the reviewer has only casually browsed through our book, or this is total bad faith and disinformation. After discussing a general option pricing formula, we indeed illustrate it first (4.3.3) with the Black-Scholes model, then with Bachelier's (Brownian) model which, as we explain, is actually a better model for short term options. But the rest of the chapter is entirely devoted to non-Gaussian effects: a theory of the smile, its relation with kurtosis and long-ranged correlation in the volatility, and comparison with actual market smiles (4.3.4), and more importantly, the hedging strategies and residual risk (4.4), alternative hedging strategies for Value-at-Risk control (4.4.6), etc. The emphasis on risk, absent in the Black-Scholes world, is our main message, and partly justifies the title of our book.
b) "There is no statistical physics" in our book, moans the reviewer. Our aim was not to draw phoney analogies, but to present this field in the spirit of statistical physics, with what we feel is an interesting balance between intuition and rigour. (Many physicists feel stranded when reading standard mathematical finance books, where data is scarce, and rigour hides the inadequacies of the models). However, there are several genuine inputs from statistical physics, e.g. data processing, approximations, simple agent based models (2.8-9), functional derivatives to obtain optimal hedges (4.4), saddle point estimates of the Value at Risk for complex portfolios (5.4) and finally, Random Matrices that the reviewer finds unduly complex -- perhaps only because new to him. However, this is contained in "starred" section, indicating that it can be skipped at first reading, as many more advanced sections.
Two more details. We indeed sometimes consider independent random variables, sometimes only uncorrelated, hopefully not confusing the two. If the reviewer spotted incorrect statements, we would be grateful to him if we can correct them in further editions. Second, our book is not meant to provide ready to implement recipes but to present a different way of thinking about finance. Nevertheless, many of the ideas have already been implemented and are used by several (open minded?) financial institutions.
18 von 24 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x94b8209c) von 5 Sternen Five stars for the intended audience, two stars for the likely holder 16. Oktober 2006
Von Bachelier - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe
Five stars for the intended audience, two stars for the likely holder (a theoretical approximation of the mathfin reader utility curve) give a three star average. Why? Practical utility skew is the operative third moment.

If you have no idea about what I just wrote, this book is not for you. If you do and it made you smile, keep reading.

In Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management authors Bouchaud and Potters place an additional veneer on their previous edition titled Theory of Financial Risks: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management, adding the sexy "Derivative Pricing" no doubt in a forgivable attempt to increase sales in this Googlfied world. But this is their failure. While the original edition was a fine, even respectable voice on bridging the knowledge of the intended audience of physicists-turned financial quant, this edition fails on the over covered subject of derivative pricing simply because it is not theoretical, but an empirical and technical review of historical data sets and assumptions and pricing techniques with critiques of the observed differences between theory and empirical results. Needless to say, this fails the smell test in physics, but in finance is as common as Shinola.

Sorry, but critiques of B-S assumptions and better curve fitting is technical, not theoretical. In other words, the theory of why third and fourth moments (skew and kurtosis) become operative and currently present arbitrage opportunities or risk management concerns is not adequately addressed, merely observed, expressed, and called attention to. Moreover, third and fourth moments are approached from a formulaic perspective intended primarily for risk managers and those seeking to make a buck (such as the authors themselves) and have only dangers emphasized. So formulas and expression yes, pure theory no.

Other reviewers have complained about a thematic Gauss-Levy versus Bachelier tone. Ho hum. For the day to day market maker (readers of Baird) such arguments pale in comparison to managing simply the delta of your book. For the physicist, the ghastly collection of noise and spikes that passes for a data set in finance will likely simply better be explained by long periods of madness followed by fleeting moments of clarity than any Procrustean attempt at better curve fitting informed for the empirical work of observing the data signals of a star's decay. Perhaps the only person Bouchaud and Potters's theoretical practical bridge tweaking would have assistance for would be the risk manager of the completely non-correlated short duration portion of the balance sheet of an international bank. Who also happened to be very powerful and have actual accurate real-time data and could implement these ideas. Scale? North of 8 billion before this is useful. Yep, in such a theta world Bachelier's technique rules. But we don't live in such a world yet, although risk managers everywhere delude themselves that they do, often armed with the likes of this book.

Let me hasten to add that Theory is not a bad thing, but its utility best serves the finmath community when it is clearly and explicitly so, without attempting techne and erte. This book is a forgivable beast with two backs, strongly skewed to a good critique of Theory and with fat tails of empiricism, and a bad attempt to be practical. This work therefore, again forgivably, is bound to disappoint practitioners. Euan Sinclair, Baird, or Joshi is your better bet.

Who is this book not for? Readers and users of Sinclair, Baird, Joshi and Hull and coding front-line quants and risk managers who live in a world of imperfect and delayed data sets will likely find this pointless academic obfuscation. Whom is this book for? I'm a finance guy, not a physicist, and so I read this book in a cyber book group with a theoretical physicist friend. He characterized the book as easy reading for him, but with little new to add that wasn't already known by the reasonably informed physicist turned finquant. His take was that it was a painfully obvious work, curiously passed off as original thinking when in reality it was simply a useful synthesis of common, though specialized knowledge. My take was it was tough sledding to get to obvious conclusions that anyone who has ever run an options book knows through painful experience or wise counsel. Elegantly expressed at a high level for a well-educated readership, but not exactly a holy grail. In other words, the juice wasn't worth the squeeze.
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