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The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? [Englisch] [Gebundene Ausgabe]

Patrick Tucker

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Kurzbeschreibung

6. März 2014
“Where I saw a thrilling and historic transformation in the world’s oldest idea—the future—other people saw only Target, Facebook, Google, and the government using their data to surveil, track, and trick them . . . But in fact, your data is your best defense against coercive marketing and intrusive government practices. Your data is nothing less than a superpower waiting to be harnessed.” —FROM THE INTRODUCTION

 In the past, the future was opaque—the territory of fortune-tellers, gurus, and dubious local TV weathermen. But thanks to recent advances in computing and the reams of data we create through smartphone and Internet use, prediction models for individual behavior grow smarter and more sophisticated by the day. Whom you should marry, whether you’ll commit a crime or fall victim to one, if you’ll contract a specific strain of flu—even your precise location at any given moment years into the future—are becoming easily accessible facts. The naked future is upon us, and the implications are staggering.

Patrick Tucker draws on stories from health care to urban planning to online dating to reveal the shape of a future that’s ever more certain. In these pages you’ll meet scientists and inventors who can predict your behavior based on your friends’ Twitter updates. They are also hacking the New York City sewer system to predict environmental conditions, anticipating how much the weather a year from now will cost an individual farmer, figuring out the time of day you’re most likely to slip back into a bad habit, and guessing how well you’ll do on a test before you take it. You’ll learn how social networks like Facebook are using your data to turn you into an advertisement and why the winning formula for a blockbuster movie is more predictable than ever.

The rise of big data and predictive analytics means that governments and corporations are becoming much more effective at accomplishing their goals and at much less cost. Tucker knows that’s not always a good thing. But he also shows how we’ve gained tremendous benefits that we have yet to fully realize.

Thanks to the increased power of predictive science, we’ll be better able to stay healthy, invest our savings more wisely, learn faster and more efficiently, buy a house in the right neighborhood at the right time, avoid crime, thwart terrorists, and mitigate the consequences of natural disasters. What happens in a future that anticipates your every move? The surprising answer: we’ll live better as a result.


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The Naked Future: What Happens in a World That Anticipates Your Every Move? + Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work and Think
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Produktbeschreibungen

Pressestimmen

“Contemplating the future—the very, very near future—of Big Data is by turns terrifying and exhilarating. Patrick Tucker captures both extremes and everything in between in this thorough yet thoroughly digestible book on the ubiquity of data gathering and the unraveling of personal privacy. This is a book powered by big ideas and enriched by expert storytelling.”
DANIEL PINK, author of To Sell Is Human and Drive

“Any American who doesn’t understand what big data has to do with everyday existence should read this book today. What’s at stake in The Naked Future is nothing short of free will itself.”
DOUGLAS RUSHKOFF, author of Present Shock: When Everything Happens Now

The Naked Future unveils a plausible future that is at once thought-provoking and rather unsettling. It seems inescapable.”
VINT CERF, Internet pioneer

“Patrick Tucker’s thought-provoking, eye-opening, and highly entertaining book The Naked Future skillfully illustrates how the intelligent analysis of big data is allowing us to see into the future with ever-increasing precision.”
RAY KURZWEIL, author of How to Create a Mind

“A fantastic romp through the data-drenched world that is just around the corner. Patrick Tucker spots the trends shaping society and business, and tells the stories with verve and insight. The Naked Future exposes what we need to know about tomorrow’s world—to not be caught with our pants down!”
KENNETH CUKIER, coauthor of Big Data: A Revolution That Will Transform How We Live, Work, and Think

Über den Autor und weitere Mitwirkende

PATRICK TUCKER is the deputy editor of The Futurist magazine, as well as director of communications for the World Future Society. His writing has appeared in the Sun, Slate, MIT Technology Review, The Wilson Quarterly, Johns Hopkins Magazine, Encyclopedia Britannica online, and The Utne Reader, among other outlets. Tucker won the 2006 Barry Hannah Prize in short fiction and the 2006 Eugene Walter Award for the Novel. He lives in Baltimore, Maryland.

In diesem Buch (Mehr dazu)
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Buchdeckel | Copyright | Inhaltsverzeichnis | Auszug | Stichwortverzeichnis
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Amazon.com: 3.6 von 5 Sternen  15 Rezensionen
4 von 4 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen A Smart Analysis of the Future 7. April 2014
Von James Canton, CEO Institute for Global Futures author of The Extreme Future - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Kindle Edition|Verifizierter Kauf
Everybody should read this book to find out what's coming that might astound you. Tucker asks the tough questions that lay at the heart of what's next in technology: What happens when technology's predictions shape our reality and intrude into our lives in unwanted ways. No one is ready for this shift and Tucker does a great job in bringing the reader with him as he investigates the future of where big data, analytics and prediction as a deliverable maybe taking us.

If you are concerned with the rise of Smart Machines that will permeate our lives in the near future, or the emergence of potentially intrusive technologies such as video facial recognition, biometrics, DNA profiling, GPS or your data exhaust being analyzed, which it is, then follow this leading futurist and read his book.
6 von 7 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen Worth reading about how your life will be affected 26. April 2014
Von John Martin - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
The Naked Future by Patrick Tucker makes the argument that in the future we will be much better at predicting events and making decisions about such things as how to teach, romantic relationships and who is a criminal and where the next crime will occur. At the same time there will be a loss of privacy as more and more information about us goes online and into data banks. Tucker makes his case quite convincingly, citing a number of companies and experts working in this area. For example, in the chapter on education he cites the work of Stanford professor Andrew Ng and Coursera, an online site that offers world class courses taught by leading university professors, now accessible to anyone. There is also the idea of the flipped classroom in which teachers put information online for students to learn in lieu of giving lectures in class and instead use the class time for discussion and problem solving, in effect flipping the standard education format of class lectures and homework. How crime fighting will change is another topic that should be of interest to anyone

The most interesting subject to me was the chapter on online dating. Tucker says that there are three factors that make for successful long-term relationships: common interests, how people collaborate and interact with each other, and how they react to stressful events. The algorithms currently in use by such popular sites such as match.com can match people reasonably well on the first point, but not on the last two. But new technology is making progress on the other two. One effort, which eventually failed is a device by the name of “Lovegety.” This product is worn by men and women and sends signals when an appropriate person is nearby. The problems with such products, says Tucker, is that they are mostly bought by men who are more willing than women to make their personal information public and men tend to have a different interest from women in meeting (I will leave it up to you to figure out what that interest is!) Nevertheless in the future we will be able to predict in a better way who might be a good match. Already more people are meeting online than in bars and this trend will continue.

In sum, The Naked Future, is here and getting more “naked” by the day. Surveillance devices, drones and other means of gathering data will become more and more prevalent. We all need to realize this reality and learn how to live with it.
18 von 25 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
2.0 von 5 Sternen Bogus Right Off the Bat 4. April 2014
Von Bruce J. Marlin - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
Don't let Tucker fool you. He is not a science writer. Nor is he averse to obscuring and obfuscating the truth to make a point.

Very early on, (page 4) Tucker begins his journey with a confusing mess of conflicting claims and counter-claims that catfish can, or almost can predict earthquakes. "They almost do" he says helpfully. After a paragraph-long, muddled explanation involving "loose defect electrons" (generated by pressure between rock formations) rising up through "porous gaps in the earth's crust" where they "ionize when they meet the air." He says that this process is able to increase the hydrogen peroxide concentration in bodies of water proximate to certain fault lines, resulting in odd animal behavior - like toads disappearing from their usual haunts and catfish thrashing around in the water.

In support of his half-assed assertions he cites British zoologist Rachel Grant's "paper published in the Journal of Zoology" concerning a bunch of toads that "disappeared" from a lake in Italy preceeding an earthquake in 2010. Trouble is, Rachel Grant published no such paper in The Journal of Zoology.* Rachel Grant is nowhere evident in the Journal of Zoology.* Oh, there is a page at frogsaregreen.org/tag/journal-of-zoology/ where the very same Rachel Grant speculates "the toads may have picked up naturally occurring magnetic fields prior to the earthquake that encouraged them to flee." but that's not the hypothesis to which Tucker is referring.

Tucker's reference to the real source comes comes disguised a page later as footnote to his paragraph where he extrapolates this "study" from toads to catfish on the strength of "their sensitive skin." Turns out the appropriate study is not a study, but an article published in The Journal of Environmental Resources and Public Health: [...]. It also turns out Ms. Grant published another article at [...] rebutting her critics and backpedaling away from her claims that the "positive holes" caused the changes in the lake water, and instead falling back on the more ethereal "electromagnetic (EM) field bioeffects."

In any event, Grant herself conceded, "Unusual animal behavior before major earthquakes has been reported for centuries. With few
exceptions in recent years, when systematic studies of animal behavior were fortuitously underway at the time of a nearby major earthquake, all observations fall under the rubric 'anecdotal'." She does not offer any hint as to what the "few exceptions" might be.

Of course this evidence is anecdotal. Grant really has no idea why the toads abandoned the lake - she doesn't even know where they went when they did. Even if the hypothesis concerning the electrical charges is correct, there is no evidence that this is what caused this "unusual" animal behavior, a very common post hoc ergo propter hoc error. Indeed, there is little evidence to support the notion this alleged behavior is unusual at all.

Another tip-off Tucker is not exactly on the up-and-up comes hard on the heels of the preceding monkey-fist when he attacks Nate Silver, the author of a different book who questioned Grant's conclusions, with "Some of the stuff in academic journals is hard to distinguish from ancient Japanese folklore." Straight and to the point, that, since that is exactly what Tucker is leading us to believe - the old Japanese legends are true.

Tucker then deliberately twists everything around and accuses Silver of "misstating Grant's intent" and that she was "not suggesting the toad behavior is evidence they predicted the earthquake." Which is, of course, exactly what Ms. Grant was intimating, and Mr. Tucker himself was doing just sentences before. The whole premise of his first chapter is based on this outlandish assertion. No, the toads were not "predicting" anything, he says, they were "detecting." Apparently a simple semantic trick can validate suspect theories and allow the parable of "overfitting" to begin.

Now, I don't know if stuff like this bothers you, but when I run up against such tortured gyrations of logic and manipulation of scientific "studies" I start to get cognitive hiccoughs and look for an exit. If an author has to resort to such shenanigans in simply laying out his mission statement, I suspect I'm in for a long bumpy road of half-truths and pseudoscience very loosely grounded in reality - and I already get plenty of that reading the New York Times.

Note: Amazon stripped out the urls of the relevant documents. You can find them at mdpi.com by searching for author Rachel Grant.
*I stand corrected - please comments below. Does not change the scope of my criticism.
7 von 9 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen The next wave of participatory democracy 7. März 2014
Von Eric Schurr - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
Our data isn't what we decide to share through social media – it is the observation of our behavior by the technology we use. Social media, apps, the “Internet of Everything” and evermore accurate and high-powered predictive analysis are working to create individual preference and behavioral models to help us shape our next experience or purchase.

Mr. Tucker’s timely examples and scenarios reveal why we need to discard the fallacy of privacy and embrace the accountability we have in sharing our data and allowing others to track our behaviors. Patrick paints a compelling case why we need to participate in how our data is used.
9 von 12 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen How private are you? 6. März 2014
Von wade yenowine - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
Patrick offers insights into society as a whole but also causes the reader to examine personal values and the future. The book is a must read for anyone observing the collection and storage of personal information to be used by information systems. Five stars is an excellent descriptor since the author challenges our struggles with how private we want to be, how secure we believe we are and the obligation we may have to share some of our personal data for the benefit of society. Readers may change their behavior before they type another keystroke, text another message or even agree to policies that allow groups access to personal data.
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