The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avioding Error in Complex Situations: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations: Amazon.de: Dietrich Dorner, Dietrich Droner, Robert Kimber: Englische Bücher

Taschenbuch: 240 Seiten
Verlag: Basic Books; Auflage: New Ed (14. Juli 1997)
Sprache: Englisch
ISBN-10: 0201479486
ISBN-13: 978-0201479485
Gr��e und/oder Gewicht: 23,9 x 15,3 x 1,5 cm

Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 4.6 von 5 Sternen Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (9 Kundenrezensionen)

Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 157.045 in Englische Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Englische Bücher)

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From Kirkus Reviews

A challenging, though preliminary, look at the difficulties of decision making, exploring how and why bad decisions are made. From G”del's incompleteness theorem to chaos and quantum theory, much of 20th-century thought has focused on underscoring the inextricable complexities of the universe and, thus, the inevitable inadequacies of knowledge. Now D”rner (Psychology/Univ. of Bamberg). a winner of Germany's highest science prize, the Leibnitz Award, makes his own contribution to the study of complexity by demonstrating just how difficult and problematic decision making can be. Happily, his methodology is both elegant and revealing. He has constructed a series of computer simulations in which the test subject might take on the role of mayor of a small town or district commissioner in charge of an arid region in Africa. Carte blanche is given to the subject struggling to deal with problems arising from such matters as population, resources, unemployment, and crop yields. Some people fail spectacularly, and some do a pretty good job, and the reasons are nearly always the same and surprisingly simple, at least in the abstract: ``What matters is not, I think, development of exotic mental capabilities . . . There is only one thing that does in fact matter, and that is the development of our common sense.'' D”rner adds that we must also learn to think in terms of time (both forwards and backwards) and the complex interrelationships within systems. Of course, models are always suspect because they tend to be reductive. But if D”rner is right, the implications here are substantial, for he has created a basic blueprint for testing decision making skills and a broad model for improving them. The corporate types who quest perpetually after the latest management techniques will almost certainly seize upon D”rner's work. But this is not so much a ``how-to'' guide as a provocative and important road map for years of future scientific experiment and investigation. (88 b&w illustrations) -- Copyright ©1996, Kirkus Associates, LP. All rights reserved. -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine vergriffene oder nicht verf�gbare Ausgabe dieses Titels.

From Library Journal

Things going wrong is an all-too-common modern management experience. Pressed for time, an administrator makes a hasty decision that remedies the problem but creates myriad new problems for someone else. Dorner (psychology, Univ. of Baumberg, Germany), an authority on cognitive behavior, questions whether or not our habits of thought measure up to the systemic demands of profound problems such as environmental degradation, nuclear weapons build-up, terrorism, and overpopulation. Using computer-simulated "real world" scenarios, he measured his test subjects's problem-solving performances over time, and, not surprisingly, discovered that people court failure in predictable patterns?from simple confusion and misperception to short attention spans and unwillingness to change tactics. All is not lost, however, for Dorner suggests that despite the repeated failure, we can learn to recognize defective management behaviors and correct them. Dorner's "only the facts" approach is refreshing; he offers clear arguments, convincing evidence, and well-reasoned conclusions. One of the best management titles of the year, this is a necessary addition to both psychology and management collections of all types.?David R. Johnson, Fayetteville P.L., Ark.
Copyright 1996 Reed Business Information, Inc. -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine vergriffene oder nicht verf�gbare Ausgabe dieses Titels.

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This book could save your company! 4. Oktober 1999

Von davesmit@pwpl.com

Format:Taschenbuch

This is one of those books you are going to recommend to your management team and finally just buy it for the boss praying it gets read!

It is a great book for understanding our limitations for decision making in complex situations and will make the older reader feel better about themselves since it confirms the value of life experienced folks over MBA wizkids!

The chapter on Planning is worth the price of the book alone. I look forward to a sequel focusing on developing critical thinking which where the book leaves us hanging.

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One just wonders how often we can make *such* mistakes 2. November 1998

Von Ein Kunde

This book influenced me a great way. I became aware of things I never was able to explain. I got an idea of how to manage complex systems. It helps when you agree because of great examples that "problems around us are complex, otherwise they would have been solved."

The graphic data and their analysis is very accurate.

One of the greatest chapters in the book is about time measurement. Never did I understand before reading that in general, people cannot manage time, they don't feel it. We measure it by looking at watch, we make charts, we write histories and mark milestones just because our mind is "current". It is a fascinating book to read. The somewhat academic style is very appropriate. I very strongly recommend it, especially for beginners in business, like me.

With best regards, OLEG.

An amazing book. 6. Juni 2000

Von Claudio Schicht

One of the best books I have read about problem-solving. The book has very interesting and pleasant experiments and cases that Dorner uses to explain his conclusions and theories about how people really solve complex problems. I do recommend this book.