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Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update
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10 von 10 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Format:Taschenbuch
The 30-Year-Update is one of the most important books of our days. For me as part of the younger generation, I only heard from the original 1972 study mostly by its critics. Althoug I feel close to environmental groups and was a Greenpeace activist for some years, I had way too much prejudice towards the Limits to Growth because of this inappropriate cirticism.
This Update brings it all back: The fundamental arguments against a society holding on to the illusion of everlasting economic growth, the finally fatal consequences of a world which is not willing to reduce its consume of natural resources, and the pointing out of humankind's dependency on ecosystems and their "services".
Reading this book, I finally understood what the mission of the orignal Limits to Grwoth was, and to which extent it has been misunderstood ever since. This is no prognosis, it is a warning. It is a warning against our way of life, and its implications show a devastating future for all parts of the world. However, this warning cannot be thrown out of the window likely, because one would have to argue sophistically against the computer model World3 which is being used to calculate possible developments in Earth's future.
The authors present around a dozen runs of their model and explain the different assumptions of each. Maybe one of the most important messages is that since 1972, we have lost more than 30 years in which we might have done a lot to save the environment and to rescue millions of people. These days, 6,000 people die each day because they lack fresh water. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment showed that 60% of all (investigated) ecosystems are being degraded. In the late 1980's, the ecological footprint of humanity exceeded the world's capacity for the first time and is now more than 23% above sustainability limits. There is overwhelming evidence that there was no basic mistake in the 1972 study. But there is a lot of evidence that we really might experience a heavy struggle for survival for large parts of the world's population in the 21st century. And the 30-Year-Update is one but important part of this evidence.
7 von 7 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Format:Taschenbuch
This book is frightening. On a macroscopic level the author sketch the future of the world in terms of population, economic, resource, pollution and wealth growth. As every model, the World3 model neglegts details that other might have included, or includes details that others find irrelevant. However, the sensitivity analysis of their model shows, that it does not matter if you precisely know the amount of depletable resources. The outcomes are nonetheless shocking if you assume twice the amount of oil.
This book tries to get one message to the reader: "In order to continue to live on this planet as mankind does at the moment, all human beings must work towards sustainability." The list of prequisites for sustainablity this book lists is long. I'm 25 years old at the moment. I'm really interested/excited/scared to see the predicitions of this book come true when I'm 80.
But before any positive sketches of the futures can be drawn, mankind must comprehend that there is little time left for corrective actions to enviromental pollution, overpopulation and resource waste. I can only say: Read this book!
7 von 8 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Format:Taschenbuch
This book is based on definitely the most thorough model in economic growth and the environment at this moment. Written for anyone with some interest in this topic, it will deepen your understanding of the issues involved and the links between major variables. Scientists should use the feedback loops in the models to understand how to develop their own models further. For the non-scientists, it gives a wonderful and objective perspective of the problems of nowadays. The emphasis is laid on the problem of overshooting. This means that our inherent uncertainty is about the point where we reach a certain threshold and then potentially vast consequences can result. For example, too much CO2 in the atmosphere leading to instability in the climate.
Please read the book, make up your mind about the problems and understand that it is our obligation to decide now on the scope of the choices we leave for our future generations.
For the economist: The model used in this book goes much further than any other model today in the field of economic growth and the environment. Even though there is not full information on all the parameters and coefficients (such that the authors had to guess them), the model seems to be fairly robust to changes in these. You can get a CD-Rom with the equations of the model to make up your own opinion. Additionally, the treatment of thresholds is new and intelligent. The emphasis on overshooting is very interesting, a point close to totally ignored in economic modelling. Whereas all economic growth models are dealing with long-run balanced growth path issues, here the authors stress that we might not have a long-run.
Please read the book, make up your mind about the problems and understand that it is our obligation to decide now on the scope of the choices we leave for our future generations.
For the economist: The model used in this book goes much further than any other model today in the field of economic growth and the environment. Even though there is not full information on all the parameters and coefficients (such that the authors had to guess them), the model seems to be fairly robust to changes in these. You can get a CD-Rom with the equations of the model to make up your own opinion. Additionally, the treatment of thresholds is new and intelligent. The emphasis on overshooting is very interesting, a point close to totally ignored in economic modelling. Whereas all economic growth models are dealing with long-run balanced growth path issues, here the authors stress that we might not have a long-run.
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Eine gerne verdrängte Tatsache wird zur Provokation
In der aktualisierten Auflage des Klassikers von 1972 wird erneut deutlich, dass wir auf einem Planeten mit begrenzten physischen Ressourcen und begrenzter Aufnahmekapazität... Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 1 Monat von Robert Wentz veröffentlicht
die frühen WarnerInnen
Ein Standardwerk, hier in Originalfassung. Die Deutsche Übersetzung ist auch gut. Immer noch ein Buch, das zum Nachdenken anregt. Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 23 Monaten von flutefever veröffentlicht
Brilliant
Die führenden Politiker dieser Welt sollten sich mit diesem Buch auseinandersetzen! Es schildert detailgenau die Probleme die BIP Wachstum verursacht und wir nicht wahrhaben... Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 23. März 2010 von I am from Austria
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