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The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" (Incerto) [Kindle Edition]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
3.2 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (9 Kundenrezensionen)

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Produktbeschreibungen

Amazon.de

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.


Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson



Amazon.com

Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.


Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson

Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.

Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.

Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.

The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.

Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."

In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson




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5 von 8 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen einfach klasse ! 29. Juli 2011
Format:Taschenbuch
wenngleich es viel polemik hinsichtlich popularwissensch. bücher gibt, dieses buch (ich weise auf die bibliography hin) ist einfach ein muss für all jene, die sich von studiums_wegen oder beruflich mit zeitreihenanalyse auseinandersetzen bzw. für all jene, die der zufall intellektuell beschäftigt, eines der besten bücher, die ich jemals in die hand bekommen habe.
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8 von 14 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
1.0 von 5 Sternen So your point is....? 28. Februar 2013
Von Shapein
Format:Taschenbuch|Verifizierter Kauf
It was Russell (or maybe Bukowski) who said “the problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts, while the stupid ones are full of confidence”. The author of this book is full of confidence in that we should not attempt to anticipate events (in particular business forecasts and economic fluctuations) because some "black swan"-an unforeseen event- might sometimes contradict those expectations. You don't say!

Passionately written but devoid of structure, this book reads like it was made from notes forced together with a little edition here and there. The miseries of such trick ensue: repetition, unconvincing fundaments, reader disorientation.

Oh, and let's not forget about the fake information; things you will google up just to find out that there were made up by the author. Nice move: trying to prove the main point of his work by citing non-existent facts.

Statistically, a few of these re-fried paragraphs are bound to be interesting, becoming that way the very black swans of this arrogant, unnecessarily semi-autobiographical, anti-scientific book.

Had this book been 150 pages shorter, I would have given it 2 stars. Alas, on top of being all that I just said, it is insufferably long, too.
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0 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Einer der größten Denker unserer Zeit 26. März 2014
Format:Kindle Edition|Verifizierter Kauf
Was soll man zu Taleb noch sagen. Mit "Fooled by Randomness" hat er schon ein bemerkenswertes Werk vorgelegt und setzt mit diesem die Reihe fort. Bestechende Logik und brilliante Argumente - und die Realität gibt ihm Recht. Pflichtlektüre!
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0 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen Know-it-all style but valuable content 25. März 2013
Format:Taschenbuch|Verifizierter Kauf
Very valuable read with many great insights. Writing style is a matter of taste, feels too "I know everything better" for me. Dietary advise towards the end of the book surely not recommended to follow, to read the book is.
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0 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen ein gutes Buch 3. Mai 2013
Von David
Format:Kindle Edition|Verifizierter Kauf
ein gutes Buch, ermutigt sich selbst und das Umfeld zu hinterfragen, sehr empfehlenswert. Man sollte sich genung Zeit nehmen, um sich richtig reinzudenken, aber es lohnt sich unbedingt.
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