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Produktbeschreibungen
Pressestimmen
"Wer genau wissen will, wie das ungarische Finanzgenie gegen das Pfund spekulierte, kommt hier voll auf seine Kosten. In seiner Alchemistenküche gibt George Soros fantastische Einblicke in den Entscheidungsprozess eines mit allen Wassern gewaschenen Spekulanten." (WERTPAPIERE - Das Börsenjournal, 4. Dezember 2003)
Kurzbeschreibung
New Foreword by renowned economist Paul Volcker
"An extraordinary . . . inside look into the decision-making process of the most successful money manager of our time. Fantastic." -The Wall Street Journal
George Soros is unquestionably one of the most powerful and profitable investors in the world today. Dubbed by BusinessWeek as "the Man who Moves Markets," Soros made a fortune competing with the British pound and remains active today in the global financial community. Now, in this special edition of the classic investment book, The Alchemy of Finance, Soros presents a theoretical and practical account of current financial trends and a new paradigm by which to understand the financial market today. This edition's expanded and revised Introduction details Soros's innovative investment practices along with his views of the world and world order. He also describes a new paradigm for the "theory of reflexivity" which underlies his unique investment strategies. Filled with expert advice and valuable business lessons, The Alchemy of Finance reveals the timeless principles of an investing legend.
This special edition will feature a new chapter by Soros on the secrets of his success and a new Foreword by the Honorable Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Federal Reserve.
George Soros (New York, NY) is President of Soros Fund Management and Chief Investment Advisor to Quantum Fund N.V., a $12 billion international investment fund. Besides his numerous ventures in finance, Soros is also extremely active in the worlds of education, culture, and economic aid and development through his Open Society Fund and the Soros Foundation.
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His philosophical tenet, Reflexivity, denotes a feedback loop: Individuals act on their views of a situation, thereby changing the situation. For example, if traders believe a stock is going up, they buy it, thereby bidding it up. But their belief caused the result; there may be no fundamental reason for the rise.
Thus what we think determines what we do and has consequences, but typically it is not correct.
Inspired by Heisenberg's rule about quantum particles, Soros proclaims a human uncertainty principle which suggests our understanding is often incoherent and always incomplete. From his case study, one notices that uncertainty continually besets Mr. Soros in managing his hedge fund, which has the same name as the particles subject to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.
General models do not always translate into money making practice. But Soros provides an insight of great practical significance: traders need to be adaptive, because there is no way of knowing beforehand how a market situation will turn out.
The Quantum Fund experience demonstrates how that works. This exercise in global macro strategy, a master speculator's take on commodity, currency and equity markets, is a a litany of doubts and hazards.
He's been losing on currency trades for several years. Then in September 1985, he makes a killing by buying a lot of yen just before central banks switch to a new exchange rate system and the yen rises. There is a pattern: he sustains losses, reduces positions, gets out, then sees a great opportunity and pounces. In short, he constantly and quickly adapts to events.
Despite various setbacks, Quantum Fund's NAV per share rose 121% in 1985 and 43% in 1986. Such numbers make for legend and Mr. Soros became one.
How did he do it? He keeps an open mind and continually modifies his outlook with new information. As he remarks, "the markets provide a merciless reality check," and Mr. Soros never stays with an idea that fails the test. Most of the time he can't predict what's coming, but he promptly corrects course in response to feedback. That limits losses. On rare occasions he can see through the fog of uncertainty and hauls in the booty.
This is not an easy book to read, but as another hedge fund manager, Paul Tudor Jones, describes it in the foreword, it is a timeless guide.
Here's an example:
"[the shoelace theory]...can be interpreted as a synthesis of Hegel's dialectic of ideas and Marx's dialectical materialism. Instead of either thoughts or material conditions evolving in a dialectic fashion on their own, it is the interplay between the two that produces a dialectic process."
This passage is a microcosm of the entire book: he makes a valid point, but it's not a particularly significant or difficult point. The only difficulty is in parsing his turgid language. I sense he is a great investor who wants to be considered a great thinker, and he believes that in order to accomplish this he has to use big words to express his theories.
Soros's widely praised theory of reflexivity is a valuable contribution, but he doesn't need 400 pages to convey it. I didn't read this book expecting a "how to make money in the stock market" tutorial, but I did expect to gain a better insight into how the markets function. I did not get that.
Don't waste your time.
Pros: Chapter Chapter 3 is about his approach to the currency market speculation. This is probably the most useful part of the book for an investor or market observer. Currencies are, after all, entirely relative to each other, particularly after the fall of Bretton Woods. He simplifies his model into eight variables (nominal FX, nominal i, price levels, gdp, capital flows, hotmoney flows, trade account, and govt budget) and then talks about how a virtual cycle appears when the market perception itself feeds price movement, which in turn fuels the perception that the perception was correct. This culminates in incorrect pricing and thus opportunity. This approach is not unlike other int'l/macro hedge fund managers today.
Cons: He has lengthy diatribes around his overabundant belief that he's a great-mind in philosophy and economics. Reflexivity is nothing more than the notion that market participants affect a price, but that prices are dynamic and constantly influenced by perception -- and here's the GREAT insight -- and perception sometimes is misled by unfounded herd momentum. He applies this model to the stocks, currencies, and credit vs regulatory cycles in the book. However, Billionaire make not a Worldly Sage...
For example, he debunks all academically-taught economics by comparing the "Perfect Competition" model to his Reflexivity. Well, of course, Perfect Competition is not reality and Supply/Demand are not discrete lines that nicely intersect on Wall Street at 4:00pm every business day! Every student of economics understands that. Its too bad that Soros's 1950's college-level economics didn't introduce him to more challenging concepts and higher level models (no offense intended towards Princeton). He does similar things to metaphysics, which can be best described as a little better than yet-another-Hollywood-actor describing existentialism.
His arguments follow an annoying pattern: (1) oversimplify a current model and debunk it, (2) apply his Reflexivity theory onto the situation, and (3) philosophize about life's implications. I can almost see him take a cigar puff then as minions sit gasping at his profound teachings, as if from Kant and Samuelson -- combined. He readily admits in the introduction and thoroughout the book that he's writing real-time and out of sequence when he has time. So, the style of writing follow an initially focused set of themes, then meander about as if he's punching the keyboard at 2:00am.
In summary, this book will NOT give you insights into the mind of one of the most profitable hedge fund traders in the world. He will not tell you his techniques (like "How to Trade like a Hedge Fund"), nor will he allow you into his inner feelings and personality (like "My Life as a Quant") so that you can walk away with something useful tomorrow. Rather, he's telling you what he wants and drags you along for a ride with verbose pages -- after pages.
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