The Age of Spiritual Machines: When Computers Exceed Human Intelligence: Amazon.de: Ray Kurzweil: Englische Bücher

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Wie sehr genießen wir Menschen unseren gegenwärtigen Status als die intelligentesten Wesen auf der Erde? So sehr, daß wir versuchen sollten, unsere eigenen Erfindungen daran zu hindern, uns in Sachen Intelligenz zu übertreffen? Wenn ja, sollten wir schleunigst den Stecker ziehen. Denn wenn Ray Kurzweil recht haben sollte, dann haben wir nur noch Zeit bis etwa 2020, bis Computer das menschliche Gehirn in bezug auf Kalkulationsfähigkeit überholt haben werden.

Kurzweil, Fachmann auf dem Gebiet der künstlichen Intelligenz und Autor von The Age of Spiritual Machines, zeigt, daß die technologische Evolution sich mit rasender Geschwindigkeit entwickelt. Er behauptet außerdem, daß sich in einer Art wirrem Postulat mit zunehmender Ordnung die Zeit beschleunigt -- und umgekehrt. Er nennt dies das "Gesetz von Zeit und Chaos". Es bedeutet, daß, obwohl die Entropie den Ablauf der Zeit für das Universum als Ganzes verlangsamt und damit die Zeitspanne zwischen wichtigen Ereignissen erheblich vergrößert, im Strudel der technologischen Evolution genau das Gegenteil geschieht, und die Ereignisse bald schneller und rasanter aufeinander folgen werden. Das bedeutet, daß wir uns so bald wie möglich Gedanken über den Umgang mit intelligenten Maschinen machen sollten. Sie werden uns bald nicht mehr nur beim Schach besiegen -- sie werden wahrscheinlich ihre Bürgerrechte verlangen, und sie könnten letztendlich sogar den menschlichen Traum der Unsterblichkeit verwirklichen.

The Age of Spiritual Machines ist fesselnd und verständlich geschrieben, dennoch liest es sich weniger trocken, wenn man hin- und herblättert (Kurzweil ermutigt sogar dazu), anstatt es in einem Stück durchzulesen. Ein Großteil des Buchs liefert die Grundlage zur Rechtfertigung von Kurzweils Zeitplan und macht es damit zu einem ansprechenden Lehrbuch über die philosophischen und technologischen Ideen hinter der Erforschung des Bewußtseins. The Age of Spiritual Machines ist kein euphorisch-futuristisches Manifest -- es liest sich vielmehr wie eine Geschichte der Zukunft, ohne zuviel Science-Fiction-Schreckensvisionen. Stattdessen führt uns Kurzweil die logische Folgen der gegenwärtigen Trends vor, mit all ihren damit verbundenen Möglichkeiten. Dies ist das Buch, an das wir uns wenden werden, wenn unsere Computer zum ersten Mal "hallo" sagen. --Therese Littleton

Amazon.com Reviews

How much do we humans enjoy our current status as the most intelligent beings on earth? Enough to try to stop our own inventions from surpassing us in smarts? If so, we'd better pull the plug right now, because if Ray Kurzweil is right we've only got until about 2020 before computers outpace the human brain in computational power. Kurzweil, artificial intelligence expert and author of The Age of Intelligent Machines, shows that technological evolution moves at an exponential pace. Further, he asserts, in a sort of swirling postulate, time speeds up as order increases, and vice versa. He calls this the "Law of Time and Chaos," and it means that although entropy is slowing the stream of time down for the universe overall, and thus vastly increasing the amount of time between major events, in the eddy of technological evolution the exact opposite is happening, and events will soon be coming faster and more furiously. This means that we'd better figure out how to deal with conscious machines as soon as possible--they'll soon not only be able to beat us at chess, but also likely demand civil rights, and might at last realize the very human dream of immortality.

The Age of Spiritual Machines is compelling and accessible, and not necessarily best read from front to back--it's less heavily historical if you jump around (Kurzweil encourages this). Much of the content of the book lays the groundwork to justify Kurzweil's timeline, providing an engaging primer on the philosophical and technological ideas behind the study of consciousness. Instead of being a gee-whiz futurist manifesto, Spiritual Machines reads like a history of the future, without too much science fiction dystopianism. Instead, Kurzweil shows us the logical outgrowths of current trends, with all their attendant possibilities. This is the book we'll turn to when our computers first say "hello." --Therese Littleton -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine andere Ausgabe: Taschenbuch .

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A very good book, but... 19. September 2000

Von Ein Kunde

Format:Gebundene Ausgabe

I enjoyed this book very much; there is no doubt Kurzweil is an engaging, convincing, and even daring author with an impressive track record for his predictions. However, I do have a couple of issues with one of his predictions.

Kurzweil predicts that machine intelligences will exceed humans by the year 2020. I have two issues with this. Although Kurzweil does discuss the complexity of the brain, I believe he has oversimplified the problem. By this time Kurzweil maintains that most brain areas will have been scanned and reverse-engineered.

Perhaps... but as I said, he has underestimated the complexity of the problem. For example, the human brain has about 15,000 major and minor brain centers, and after 100 years of research, not a single central neural code for a single brain center has ever been deciphered. So if Kurzweil's prediction relies on our figuring out the actual 'wetware,' good luck. Of course, machine intelligence of respectable power may become possible without our understanding how the brain does it, but in my opinion, these machine intelligences will not have the generality of their human counterparts, although they may be able to beat humans in certain specialist areas (such as chess and spectrology).

I have another issue. Let's consider the difference between a human brain and a modern CPU in terms of the number of computing elements. Current microchips only have a few million transisters. A human brain has over 60 trillion neurons. Even if we start packing that many transistors on a chip, that's only part of the problem. Each neuron has between 10,000 and 100,000 different connections with other neurons (the figure Kurzweil quotes is too low). The total number of connections is therefore 60 trillion taken 10,000 to 100,000 at a time. As you may know, this becomes a very large number, being a "combinatorial explosion"-type problem. This means that the total number of connections in a human brain is probably greater than the number of atoms in the known universe. Or to put it another way, you could add up all the computer chips on earth and they probably wouldn't equal one human brain in terms of the total synaptic connectivity. This doesn't mean it won't happen, but this gives you some idea of the complexity of the organ Kurzweil is predicting a machine will soon exceed.

To give another analogy, a human liver can catalyze about 2000 different biochemical reactions. The most sophisticated chemical factory in the world can't do even a small fraction of that. A human brain is orders of magnitude more complex, just in terms of the 'hardware.' This means that current computers will have to be thousands, perhaps, millions of times, more complex to emulate a human on this level. And we haven't even gotten to the issue of the 'software' or 'wetware,' of which, as I said, hardly anything is known. Perhaps machine intelligence will do it another way without all the hardware-level complexity a human brain has. Certainly they are faster than we are, by many orders of magnitude, but speed is not the same as power. We shall see...

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Spiritual Machines? Oh, come on, I said...at first... 16. April 1999

Von Ein Kunde

Format:Gebundene Ausgabe

This book is definitely an adventure. I'll admit I found some parts challenging, such as some of the quantum physics stuff, but like all good books, this one is worth more than a few reads. Just the historical perspective is valuable - Mr. Kurzweil has put together a very comprehensive overview of the development of key ideas in Western civilization relevant to his ideas about the future. I especially appreciate that he discusses, in detail, the philosophical views that have shaped our world. And the timeline is fascinating. It is just amazing how quickly technology has advanced, especially over the past 50 or so years. One important aspect that a lot of futurists seem to miss is this accelerating pace of technical advancement. One of the things I really like about this book is that it does not present farfetched visions and is not based on a limited worldview. Because the logic behind Kurzweil's train of thought is so grounded in facts and rational progressions, the predictions are unsettling, if not downright scary. He never says that computers will necessarily be conscious or "spiritual." He only says that we will eventually accept that they are. Although I am convinced, after reading the book, that extremely advanced new forms of intelligence will happen, exactly how this will all play out is not yet clear. Our earth, the universe, and we humans are all ultimately unpredictable in the actual stories that will unfold. He acknowledges that a man-made, environmental, or celestial disaster could put and end to the current trend in technological growth - although, he does firmly believe that technology, as a natural extension of evolution, will inevitably develop beyond its organic origins. Although I am not a scientist myself, I know an important book when I see one. And, I would encourage teachers to include this book in their curriculums - lots to think about!

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A Flawed Masterpiece 26. Januar 1999

Von Robert Carlberg

Format:H�rkassette

Although not a perfect book, "The Age of Spiritual Machines" is destined (IMO) to become one of the more important books of the late 20th Century.

Kurzweil begins all the way back at the Big Bang, clearly unable to limit his scope to something more appropriate. He starts with an outdated summary of creation physics, then contrasts the slowing timeline of phase changes in the universe with the speeding up of the evolution of life -- as if the two are somehow related. He puts forth the curious idea that technology is "inevitable" wherever life evolves. Both these arguments exemplify the homocentric hubris that the universe was created for the emergence of mankind.

Nevermind. Skip the first chapter (as Kurzweil himself suggests in the prefatory note) and you'll quickly get into the good stuff. His chapters on the evolution of intelligence and the growth of computing power are well founded.

Where he really hits his stride however is in the second section, "Preparing the Present," where he puts forth cogent arguments for quantum computing based on DNA, mentality-enhancing neural implants, and "downloading your mind to your personal computer." He then goes on to discuss nanotechnology and life-extending technologies. This section alone is worth the price of the book.

After the past and the present, he gives quick snapshots of where he thinks we may be in 10, 20, 30, and 100 years. These too are well thought out and insightful. He is generally conservative, foreseeing no large "phase changes" which could radically affect current trends. It'll be interesting to check back to see how his predictions held up.

Other pluses: an excellent "further reading" list, extensive web links, and far-ranging footnotes.

Minuses: he takes Roger Penrose seriously, he fails to mention Racter in the discussion of computer authors, and he spends just a wee bit too much time tooting his own horn (Kurzweil Computer Products, Kurzweil Reading Machine, Kurzweil Data Entry Machine, Kurzweil Music Systems, Kurzweil Applied Intelligence, Kurzweil Education Systems, Ray Kurzweil Cybernetic Poet...) But to be fair, he HAS pioneered in all these areas, so perhaps he has earned his immodesty.

Overall, a fascinating, thought-provoking book which is not afraid to make concrete predictions. Given Kurzweil's track record, he may just prove to be 100% right.

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