- Gebundene Ausgabe: 272 Seiten
- Verlag: Bantam (28. August 2007)
- Sprache: Englisch
- ISBN-10: 0553805401
- ISBN-13: 978-0553805406
- Größe und/oder Gewicht: 15,9 x 2,5 x 23,6 cm
- Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 3.3 von 5 Sternen Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (3 Kundenrezensionen)
- Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 108.571 in Englische Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Englische Bücher)
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Super Crunchers: How Anything Can Be Predicted
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Produktbeschreibungen
Pressestimmen
"In the past, one could get by on intuition and experience. Times have changed. Today, the name of the game is data. Ian Ayres shows us how and why in this groundbreaking book Super Crunchers. Not only is it fun to read, it just may change the way you think."—Steven D. Levitt, author of Freakonomics
"Data-mining and statistical analysis have suddenly become cool.... Dissecting marketing, politics, and even sports, stuff this complex and important shouldn't be this much fun to read."—Wired
"[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia."—Portfolio
"When statistics conflict with expert opinion, bet on statistics....Businesses, consumers, and governments are waking up to the power of analyzing enormous tracts of information."—Discover
"Super Crunchers shows that data-driven decisionmaking is not just revolutionizing baseball and business; it's changing the way that education policy, health care reimbursements, even tax regulations are crafted. Super Crunching is truly reinventing government. Politicians love to tout policy proposals, but they rarely come back and tell you which ones succeeded and which ones failed. Data-driven policy making forces government to ask the bottom line question of 'What works.' That's an approach we can all support."—John Podesta, President of the Center for American Progress
"A lively and yet rigorously careful account of the use of quantitative methods for analysis and decision-making.... Both social scientists and businessmen can profit from this book, while enjoying themselves in the process."—Dr. Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University
“Ayres’ point is that human beings put far too much faith in their intuition and would often be better off listening to the numbers.... The best stories in the book are about Ayres and other economists he knows, whether they are studying wine, the Supreme Court or jobless benefits.... Ayres himself is one of the [statistical] detectives. He has done fascinating research.”—The New York Times Book Review
"Ian Ayres [is] a law-and-economics guru."—Chronicle of Higher Education
“Lively and enjoyable.... Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined.... Edifying and entertaining."—Publishers Weekly
"Super Crunchers presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restricted to providing input to formulae."—The Economist
"Insightful and delightful!" —Forbes
"Data-mining and statistical analysis have suddenly become cool.... Dissecting marketing, politics, and even sports, stuff this complex and important shouldn't be this much fun to read."—Wired
"[Ayres's] thesis is provocative: Complex statistical models could be used to market products more intelligently, craft better movies, and solve health-care problems—if only we could get past our statistics phobia."—Portfolio
"When statistics conflict with expert opinion, bet on statistics....Businesses, consumers, and governments are waking up to the power of analyzing enormous tracts of information."—Discover
"Super Crunchers shows that data-driven decisionmaking is not just revolutionizing baseball and business; it's changing the way that education policy, health care reimbursements, even tax regulations are crafted. Super Crunching is truly reinventing government. Politicians love to tout policy proposals, but they rarely come back and tell you which ones succeeded and which ones failed. Data-driven policy making forces government to ask the bottom line question of 'What works.' That's an approach we can all support."—John Podesta, President of the Center for American Progress
"A lively and yet rigorously careful account of the use of quantitative methods for analysis and decision-making.... Both social scientists and businessmen can profit from this book, while enjoying themselves in the process."—Dr. Kenneth Arrow, Nobel Prize winning economist, and Professor Emeritus at Stanford University
“Ayres’ point is that human beings put far too much faith in their intuition and would often be better off listening to the numbers.... The best stories in the book are about Ayres and other economists he knows, whether they are studying wine, the Supreme Court or jobless benefits.... Ayres himself is one of the [statistical] detectives. He has done fascinating research.”—The New York Times Book Review
"Ian Ayres [is] a law-and-economics guru."—Chronicle of Higher Education
“Lively and enjoyable.... Ayres skillfully demonstrates the importance that statistical literacy can play in our lives, especially now that technology permits it to occur on a scale never before imagined.... Edifying and entertaining."—Publishers Weekly
"Super Crunchers presents a convincing and disturbing vision of a future in which everyday decision-making is increasingly automated, and the role of human judgment restricted to providing input to formulae."—The Economist
"Insightful and delightful!" —Forbes
Kurzbeschreibung
Why would a casino try and stop you from losing? How can a mathematical formula find your future spouse? Would you know if a statistical analysis blackballed you from a job you wanted?
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.
Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new book, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers. From internet sites like Google and Amazon that know your tastes better than you do, to a physician's diagnosis and your child's education, to boardrooms and government agencies, this new breed of decision makers are calling the shots. And they are delivering staggeringly accurate results. How can a football coach evaluate a player without ever seeing him play? Want to know whether the price of an airline ticket will go up or down before you buy? How can a formula outpredict wine experts in determining the best vintages? Super crunchers have the answers. In this brave new world of equation versus expertise, Ayres shows us the benefits and risks, who loses and who wins, and how super crunching can be used to help, not manipulate us.
Gone are the days of solely relying on intuition to make decisions. No businessperson, consumer, or student who wants to stay ahead of the curve should make another keystroke without reading Super Crunchers.
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Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
By purchasing this book I was hoping to be exposed to the way quantitative methods are used (as a tool!) in various fields. Alternatively I hoped to be exposed in an intuitive way to some breakthrough methods. However, all throughout the text the author opposes 'intuitivists' vs 'number crunchers' via selected examples.
I find this opposition misleading because as far as most of the models from this book are concerned, 'garbage in ' garbage out' applies. That is to say that these models are made to test hypotheses, therefore it is not exact to oppose intuition to quantitative methods. Thus it is even more inexact to make the point that number crunching is superior to intuition.
Another weak point of the book is that as introductory as it might be only 6 pages out of 220 pages discuss Bayesian methods and they are to be found at the very end of the book.
However, this book provides an excellent discussion on evidence based medicine. Another very interesting part is the one where the authors points out the factors that facilitate number crunching.
In a nutshell, if you know what 'significantly different from zero' and 'everything else being equal' mean, you should be able to find a better use of your time.
I find this opposition misleading because as far as most of the models from this book are concerned, 'garbage in ' garbage out' applies. That is to say that these models are made to test hypotheses, therefore it is not exact to oppose intuition to quantitative methods. Thus it is even more inexact to make the point that number crunching is superior to intuition.
Another weak point of the book is that as introductory as it might be only 6 pages out of 220 pages discuss Bayesian methods and they are to be found at the very end of the book.
However, this book provides an excellent discussion on evidence based medicine. Another very interesting part is the one where the authors points out the factors that facilitate number crunching.
In a nutshell, if you know what 'significantly different from zero' and 'everything else being equal' mean, you should be able to find a better use of your time.
Format:Taschenbuch
I just finished reading this book in five hours. I haven't put it aside. For other reasons one might would imagine.
Of course, for somebody who has already received training in statistical methods, there is nothing in this book from a scientific and educational point of view. And for those who have a phobia of maths: Don't worry, there is not a single equation to find.
But that somebody would be me. Still, I couldn't put it aside. And I just wish I had read this book earlier. Because if I had, statistics would have become a serious endeavour of mine. If there is a book out there putting in plain text why statistics are important not only to those who try to do serious academic research (and even those people would be better of if they decided to stick to mathematics), it is definitely this one.
Why did I subtract a star? At some point this book becomes kind of redundant. For those willing to skip pages filled with information they already digested not a problem.
But to sum it up: Fun to read, especially as a primer for statistics classes. Nothing that helps you through those classes except for lots of motivation. And you might suddenly understand why _this_ review is showed to you and not any other.
Of course, for somebody who has already received training in statistical methods, there is nothing in this book from a scientific and educational point of view. And for those who have a phobia of maths: Don't worry, there is not a single equation to find.
But that somebody would be me. Still, I couldn't put it aside. And I just wish I had read this book earlier. Because if I had, statistics would have become a serious endeavour of mine. If there is a book out there putting in plain text why statistics are important not only to those who try to do serious academic research (and even those people would be better of if they decided to stick to mathematics), it is definitely this one.
Why did I subtract a star? At some point this book becomes kind of redundant. For those willing to skip pages filled with information they already digested not a problem.
But to sum it up: Fun to read, especially as a primer for statistics classes. Nothing that helps you through those classes except for lots of motivation. And you might suddenly understand why _this_ review is showed to you and not any other.
Format:Taschenbuch
I had to buy this for class. It provides a lot of examples of good uses of data mining/statistical analysis. It doesn't go into extreme detail as it is really an overview of many uses. Because of this, it's a great introduction and eye-opener on super crunching.
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