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Risk: A Very Short Introduction
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Kurzbeschreibung
We find risks everywhere--from genetically modified crops, medical malpractice, and stem-cell therapy to intimacy, online predators, identity theft, inflation, and robbery. They arise from our own acts and they are imposed on us. In this Very Short Introduction, Baruch Fischhoff and John Kadvany draw on the sciences and humanities to explore and explain the many kinds of risk. Using simple conceptual frameworks from decision theory and behavioural research, they examine the science and practice of creating measures of risk, showing how scientists address risks by combining historical records, scientific theories, probability, and expert judgment.Risk: A Very Short Introduction describes what has been learned by cognitive scientists about how people deal with risks, applying these lessons to diverse examples, and demonstrating how understanding risk can aid choices in everyday life and public policies for health, safety, environment, finance, and many other topics.
Über den Autor
Baruch Fischhoff is Howard Heinz University Professor in the Department of Social and Decision Sciences and the Department of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. John Kadvany is a consultant whose clients include the Environmental Protection Agency and the US Department of Energy.
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6 von 6 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
A Good Introduction to Decision-Making about Risk and What Our Choices Tell Us about Ourselves
10. Juli 2011
Format:Taschenbuch|Von Amazon bestätigter Kauf
Oxford doesn't publish books for "dummies" -- they publish "very short introductions". And this one isn't for dummies. It's an informed overview of the elements of understanding risks and making decisions with respect to them.
For most of us, risk is something we address in an informal, rule-of-thumb manner. I think this goes for everything from the risks we run in leaving our homes every day (or even staying in them), to how we invest our 401ks, to our willingness or unwillingness to participate in dangerous sports like rock-climbing or ocean swimming, and even to business risks arising in our professional lives. We trust in our own decision-making, often with little information to go on.
We certainly pay a price. For example, if we rely on the flow of information we simply happen to receive, we over-estimate our vulnerability to violent crime, natural disasters, traffic accidents, and the like. Our information flow isn't designed as an unbiased source for risk assessment.
The authors have made careers of understanding risk. The most interesting point they make, I think, is that "societies reveal themselves by how they handle dangers." How we measure risks, including what it is that we consider risks to be risks to reveal, in action, what we value, what really matters to us. Is it life, simply put? Is it a life of a particular kind? Is it long life? Is it healthy life?
"Very short introductions" are not for professionals -- they are for the majority of us who can benefit from an explicit, reflective framework for something we don't really have an informed way of thinking about. Maybe the most valuable thing we can learn is that there are, in fact, informed ways to think about and make decisions with respect to the risks that are ubiquitous in everyday life.
For most of us, risk is something we address in an informal, rule-of-thumb manner. I think this goes for everything from the risks we run in leaving our homes every day (or even staying in them), to how we invest our 401ks, to our willingness or unwillingness to participate in dangerous sports like rock-climbing or ocean swimming, and even to business risks arising in our professional lives. We trust in our own decision-making, often with little information to go on.
We certainly pay a price. For example, if we rely on the flow of information we simply happen to receive, we over-estimate our vulnerability to violent crime, natural disasters, traffic accidents, and the like. Our information flow isn't designed as an unbiased source for risk assessment.
The authors have made careers of understanding risk. The most interesting point they make, I think, is that "societies reveal themselves by how they handle dangers." How we measure risks, including what it is that we consider risks to be risks to reveal, in action, what we value, what really matters to us. Is it life, simply put? Is it a life of a particular kind? Is it long life? Is it healthy life?
"Very short introductions" are not for professionals -- they are for the majority of us who can benefit from an explicit, reflective framework for something we don't really have an informed way of thinking about. Maybe the most valuable thing we can learn is that there are, in fact, informed ways to think about and make decisions with respect to the risks that are ubiquitous in everyday life.
1 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Very Educational and Informative
23. August 2011
Format:Taschenbuch|Von Amazon bestätigter Kauf
Risk is an inevitable fact of human life. Dealing with risk is an integral part of our psychological makeup, and for the most of recorded history there have been attempts to minimize the risk as much as possible. It could be argued that many of the social, cultural, religious, and political institutions that we know today have evolved as an attempt to find some kind of stability and security in this risky world. "Risk - A very short Introduction" is a thoughtful, modern, and up-to-date account of risk, what we mean by it and how we deal with it.
One of the main aims of this short book is to force us to rethink the way we perceive and deal with risk. Our innate risk-assessment abilities are fairly good - up to a point. We are not very good at assessing risks associated with events that are vastly outside of the scope of our experiences, and especially those that are at odds with most of the historical human experiences. Thus for instance we are not very good at handling infinitesimally small or enormously large quantities, oftentimes overestimating or underestimating corresponding risks.
The book also drives home one important point: the concept of risk is inexorably value-laden. It is impossible to talk about risks in absolute terms without specifying the reference frame from within which we operate. There are certainly individual preferences that determine which risks are acceptable and which ones are outside the realm of consideration. There are certainly certain risks that are perceived more or less universally, but this too will be contingent on the cultural factors.
In addition to being hard to define and measure, risk can be very hard to communicate effectively. Over the years there have been many cases of unintentional misrepresentation of various risks. Many, but not all, of such cases can be found in public safety announcements and information broadcasts. Being able to better communicate all sorts of risks can have significant impact on our daily lives, and this is one area of risk management that can potentially be easily improved.
This is a fairly thorough and informative short book on various aspects of risk. It will help you get a more articulate way of thinking about risk. At best, it may even enable you to take concrete steps in the direction of being better at handling various facets of risk in your own life. This is a very well written book on an exceedingly complex subject.
One of the main aims of this short book is to force us to rethink the way we perceive and deal with risk. Our innate risk-assessment abilities are fairly good - up to a point. We are not very good at assessing risks associated with events that are vastly outside of the scope of our experiences, and especially those that are at odds with most of the historical human experiences. Thus for instance we are not very good at handling infinitesimally small or enormously large quantities, oftentimes overestimating or underestimating corresponding risks.
The book also drives home one important point: the concept of risk is inexorably value-laden. It is impossible to talk about risks in absolute terms without specifying the reference frame from within which we operate. There are certainly individual preferences that determine which risks are acceptable and which ones are outside the realm of consideration. There are certainly certain risks that are perceived more or less universally, but this too will be contingent on the cultural factors.
In addition to being hard to define and measure, risk can be very hard to communicate effectively. Over the years there have been many cases of unintentional misrepresentation of various risks. Many, but not all, of such cases can be found in public safety announcements and information broadcasts. Being able to better communicate all sorts of risks can have significant impact on our daily lives, and this is one area of risk management that can potentially be easily improved.
This is a fairly thorough and informative short book on various aspects of risk. It will help you get a more articulate way of thinking about risk. At best, it may even enable you to take concrete steps in the direction of being better at handling various facets of risk in your own life. This is a very well written book on an exceedingly complex subject.
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