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Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty [Englisch] [Taschenbuch]

Gerd Gigerenzer
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Kurzbeschreibung

24. April 2003
Gerd Gigerenzer's Reckoning with Risk: Learning to Live with Uncertainty illustrates how we can learn to make sense of statistics and turn ignorance into insight. However much we want certainty in our lives, it feels as if we live in an uncertain and dangerous world. But are we guilty of wildly exaggerating the chances of some unwanted event happening to us? Are we misled by our ignorance of the reality of risk? Far too many of us, argues Gerd Gigerenzer, are hampered by our own innumeracy, while statistics are often presented to us in highly confusing ways. With real world examples, such as the incidence of errors in tests for breast cancer or HIV, or in DNA fingerprinting, and the manipulation of statistics for evidence in court, he shows that our difficulty in thinking about numbers can easily be overcome. 'Indispensable ... The book will change the attentive reader's way of looking at the world'
  Sunday Telegraph 'An important book ... the reader is presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics ... anyone who wants to take responsibility for their own medical choices should read it'
  New Scientist 'Gigerenzer makes clear thinking easier'
  Evening Standard 'More than ever, citizens need to know how to evaluate risk ... This book should be pressed into the palms of '
  Independent Gerd Gigerenzer is Director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin and former Professor of Psychology at the University of Chicago. He has published two academic books on heuristics, Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart and Bounded Rationality: The Adaptive Toolbox as well as a popular science book, Gut Feelings: Short Cuts to Better Decision Making.

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Produktinformation

  • Taschenbuch: 320 Seiten
  • Verlag: Penguin; Auflage: New Ed (24. April 2003)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ISBN-10: 0140297863
  • ISBN-13: 978-0140297867
  • Größe und/oder Gewicht: 1,8 x 12,8 x 19,6 cm
  • Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 4.5 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (2 Kundenrezensionen)
  • Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 19.288 in Fremdsprachige Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Fremdsprachige Bücher)
  • Komplettes Inhaltsverzeichnis ansehen

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Produktbeschreibungen

Pressestimmen

"This is an important book, full of relevant examples and worrying case histories. By the end of it, the reader has been presented with a powerful set of tools for understanding statistics...anyone who wants to take responsibly for their own medical choices should read it" - New Scientist

Synopsis

At the beginning of the 20th century, the father of modern science fiction, H.G. Wells, predicted that statistical thinking would be as necessary for citizenship in a technological world as the ability to read and write. Yet, a century on, most of us, from television weather forecasters to the American President, seem to have no idea of how to reason about uncertainties. Accordingly, a number of books have marshalled a long roster of cognitive illusions as evidence of humans' fundamental irrationality. Detailing case histories and examples, this text presents readers with tools for understanding statistics. In so doing, it encourages us to overcome our innumeracy and empowers us to take responsibility for our own choices.

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3 von 3 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Format:Taschenbuch
...but the author shook my firm believe in this. as a finance "specialist" i always believed that even the trained mind in probabilities had difficulties with imagining and visualising odds. the authors argument in this book is ground-breaking to me. probabilities, percentages and other normalised forms of representing risk are relatively recent. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution. just for this part, chapter 1 "insight", the book is wort every penny for those interested in probability and the perception of it.
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5.0 von 5 Sternen Notwendig 12. Juni 2013
Von simonue
Format:Kindle Edition
Niemandem sollten diese erhellenden und wichtigen Botschaften verborgen bleiben. Es ist bestürzend wie wenig man versteht, wenn Daten unüberlegt verbreitet werden und wie rücksichtslos mit Kunden und Patienten umgegangen wird, wenn es darum geht einen Kauf abzuschließen.
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Amazon.com: 4.6 von 5 Sternen  9 Rezensionen
10 von 10 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Applicable to real life 9. Juni 2007
Von Smet - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
As far as I am concerned, statistics deserves much more attention in the school curriculum than it gets at present. In general, few of us understand the concept of probability, and it is often distorted and misunderstood.

In this book Gigerenzer presents numerous examples of such misunderstanding, mostly from medicine and jurisprudence. If you test HIV positive, what are the chances that you actually have the virus? Surprisingly, most doctors (including myself before reading this book) don't know the answer. The same is true regarding mammography. The author also presents examples of how the logic of probability is applied incorrectly, such as in "prosecutor's fallacy" and DNA testing. Importantly, he also shows how to interpret complicated statistical data and convert it into natural frequencies that are easily understood.

Despite the complexity of the topic, the book is not difficult to read and is written with the good sense of humor. It is not an academic text and is entertaining. Anyone who is faced with the choices regarding medical screening or treatment will find it very useful. I re-read this book many times and thoroughly enjoyed it. This book also changed the way I look at medical research and apply it in my medical practice.
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4.0 von 5 Sternen Minds are not adapted to probability.......i used to believe 4. Februar 2006
Von Franco Arda - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
but the author shook my firm believe in this. as a finance "specialist" i always believed that even the trained mind in probabilities had difficulties with imagining and visualising odds. the authors argument in this book is ground-breaking to me. probabilities, percentages and other normalised forms of representing risk are relatively recent. In contrast, natural frequencies result from natural sampling, the process by which humans and animals have encountered information about ris during most of their evolution. just for this part, chapter 1 "insight", the book is wort every penny for those interested in probability and the perception of it.
3 von 3 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Invaluable in learning how to measure risk in today's uncertain world 15. August 2009
Von G. Perera - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
The test for breast cancer is extremely reliable. It correctly detects breast cancer in 90% of cases when the cancer does exist, and only mistakenly reports it in 9% of cases when the cancer doesn't exist. The incidence of breast cancer in women is 1 in 100. Suppose you (or, for men, a woman close to you) take a test for breast cancer, and unfortunately it returns a positive result (i.e. it detects the cancer). What is the probability that you do have breast cancer? Would you be surprised to know it's just 10%? Not 90%, 99% or some other high number?

Another example: DNA testing on a murder weapon matches your DNA, and a forensic expert says there's only a 1 in 100,000 chance of that happening. Are you doomed? Would you be surprised to know that in a city of, say, 2 million people, this means you're 95% likely to be NOT guilty, based on that DNA evidence alone?

Do these examples surprise and confuse you? If so, take heart: They surprise and confuse most people - laypeople and experts (doctors and lawyers) alike. Unfortunately, this can have disastrous - sometimes tragic - consequences in law, medicine and other fields.

This is the topic of Gerd Gigerenzer's excellent book about working with risk and uncertainty. Read it and you might be horrified at some of the horrible mistakes being made by experts giving advice. At least you'll be in a better position to question them and become better informed.

Is this the best book ever written about dealing with uncertainty? I'm not sure. But it's certainly well worth the read.
4.0 von 5 Sternen good explananation of Bayes's Theory 17. Februar 2014
Von Carl Kirstein - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Kindle Edition|Verifizierter Kauf
Although most of the examples are focussed on the medical field, this book makes Bayes's Theory easy to understand and apply. Gigerenzer also makes a compelling argument to use frequencies instead of percentages. I am an Engineer and understand percentages quite well, but have not realised/considered that the majority of non-mathematically endowed people do not quite grasp percentages as well as I think they do.

Gigerenzer also shows how the presentation of the information can be used to makes something look worse/better than it actually is (relative vs absolute risk for instance). This will help me to sell studies to our review committees better. But it will also cause frustration when reading studies and seeing the lack of information to change relative risks into absolute risks.

I would have liked to see more examples outside of the medical field and perhaps less emphasis on the dialogues "he said/she said" examples. Other than that, this has been a good read and is recommended for anyone interested in risk management and analysis.
4.0 von 5 Sternen Making you re-check your knowledge about statistics 12. März 2013
Von Karmen Stanic - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Kindle Edition|Verifizierter Kauf
Do we really understand what we read? The book makes you think, not just accept written facts. I recommend this book to everyone, specially MD and other workers in healthcare. It might help you to communicate with your patients and their relatives in more efficient way.
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