How Barack Obama Won: A State-by-State Guide to the Historic 2008 Presidential Election (Vintage) [Englisch] [Taschenbuch]

If you're interested in the voting characteristics of the states, then you'll really like this book. Todd and Geiser give a pretty objective re-cap of the primary and general election campaigns in the introduction, and then go state-by-state, grouping them into "battlegrounds," "receding battlegrounds," "emerging battlegrounds," and "red/blue" states. Democrats will enjoy this more than Republicans, since the authors continually point out the demographic and ideological trends that are moving in the democrats favor. To their credit, though, they point out how this movement may be unique to this election or ultimately unsustainable, and does point out republican advantages in certain areas.

Mostly, the analysis is spot on, and they reveal some interesting characteristics and patterns that even a junkie like me didn't catch. Still, I have a couple issues with their analysis.

First, the youth vote. The authors say it was "overrated" for the most part and only made the difference in 2 states. They say this due to the fact that their turnout rate only increased by 1%, which didn't meet the inflated expectations of some. However, Obama won this vote by 66-32. No prior candidate, in the history of exit polling, EVER won any age cohort by such a large margin. The closest was Reagan in 1984, but by 20, not 34 points. Clearly, this indicates that republicans have some extremely serious problems with younger people that have only gotten worse since 2000. George W. Bush may have turned an entire generation away from his party.

Second, the 5 "emerging" battleground states. Georgia, Nebraska, and Texas don't belong here. If Obama couldn't win GA in this environment, there is little chance for democrats down the road. GA has been trending red the last decade. And Texas's status is that it "might" be a battleground in 10 years. Well, by that logic so might California, since political fortunes will certainly change in a decade.

Also, the authors are of the belief that the Republicans' problem is that their brand of conservatism no longer works well outside the south. They content that republicans must become more moderate to gain back footholds in the west, northeast, and midwest. I think this is questionable, since social issues like abortion and gay marriage were not really a part of the 2008 campaign, so it's impossible to judge whether or not such "moral values" were being rejected or not.

To me, it's more a problem with their marketing/branding techniques than their beliefs. Their essential messages of low taxes, low spending, smaller government, strong defense, and personal responsibility have all enjoyed popularity throughout America's history. It's just that they no longer know how to communicate this effectively.

Finally, in their descriptions of the campaign, the authors were far too generous in describing the effect of Sarah Palin as McCain's VP choice. Saying that she "stumbled" in some interviews is far too nice. She was incoherent. Then she became a polarizing figure. She may not have lost the election for McCain but she did not help one bit. Anywhere she might have helped were states McCain was already going to win.

There was a fairly large number of grammatical errors peppered throughout the book. Indicative of sloppy editing, but judging from the displays at the bookstore, it looks like publishers wanted to get a slew of Obama-themed books out for the inauguration.

Overall, though, a good book for a fair price. It's a quick read, and an excellent reference for political watchers. I recommend it.

Todd and Gawiser provide a very insightful examination of the 2008 presidential campaign. The book includes two basic sections: an introduction which has overall analysis of the `08 primaries and general election, and the aforementioned state by state compilation of general election results. More than a post mortem on the historic campaign that just ended, the book includes many lessons for 2012 and the future of U.S. political party alignment.

Written by two noted "numbers guys", I expected the book might be a little dry, but was pleasantly surprised by how Todd and Gawiser were able to make the demographic and polling data they provide come alive with shrewd, sometimes even humorous, analysis. I especially enjoyed their tongue-in-cheek captions (such as "Greatest Side Show on Earth", "Georgia: A Battleground on My Mind"). There's also lots of really interesting tidbits of inside information from the campaigns sprinkled throughout. Overall, How Barack Obama Won is a terrific read for anyone interested in politics.

If you paid attention to Chuck Todd during the primaries and general election, as you well should have, many of the notions in his and Gawiser's book will sound familiar. All of that is gathered here in one well-written, no-nonsense analysis that as usual, doesn't fail to fascinate. Even though we know the end result, you're sure to learn some aspects of the voting that may surprise you and where the conventional wisdom did and did not hold up.