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The Hockey Stick Illusion: Climategate and the Corruption of Science (Independent Minds) (Englisch) Taschenbuch – 15. Januar 2010

5 von 5 Sternen 2 Kundenrezensionen

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Format: Taschenbuch
This book covers an interesting part of recent science history and reads like a thriller. I strongly recommend it to people who are unprejudiced and are interested in all sides of the climate change debate. Clearly, this book only covers the McIntyre & McKitrick side of the story and there would be a different interpretation and focus if friends of Mann et al. were to write their version of the events.

Despite this, the author A. W. Montford does a superb job in telling the story in a rather fair and transparent way, I think. The language always stays on the polite side, contrasting with some excessively aggressive communication styles in several well-known climate blogs. In this book one learns about the history of the hockey stick curve, how it supported the anthropogenic climate warming model, why it was needed and how it was put together. One learns the crucial role of statistics that can change the meaning of a whole dataset. We hear about suspicious tree ring datasets that have been used in the making of the hockeystick curve. Some of these datasets have been used by many authors as temperature proxies, even though these tree ring data might not always record temperature. We hear how hockeystick shapes can be generated out of random data. One wonders why data is not made openly available by the Hockey Team for independent checking of the results (something that normal reviewers cannot do due to time constraints). It might have to do with the fact that the resulting temperature curve failed the R2-statistical test which was considered as unimportant. We are also told that the alleged later "independent" confirmation of the Mann et al. temperature curve was carried out by a former PhD student of one of the original hockeystick authors (Bradley).
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3 Kommentare 13 Personen fanden diese Informationen hilfreich. War diese Rezension für Sie hilfreich? Ja Nein Feedback senden...
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Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Endlich einmal Fakten und keine unreflektierten Glaubensbekenntnisse. Die Klimakatastrophenapologeten sollten sich mal mit der Komplexität des Problems auseinandersetzen und Vermutungen nicht als endliche Wahrheiten verkaufen.
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Die hilfreichsten Kundenrezensionen auf Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: HASH(0x95161630) von 5 Sternen 106 Rezensionen
279 von 366 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x9fbb9618) von 5 Sternen hockey story 25. Januar 2010
Von Amazon Customer - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
This is a superb review of the story of the hockeystick, the temperature reconstruction which was supposed to show that late 20th century temperatures were unprecedented for at least 1,000 years and which was highlighted in the third IPCC report in 2001. What Montford does in this book is take us through Steven McIntyre's attempt to reproduce the original result of Michael Mann and the controversy that followed. His account is very well written and it reads like a detective story. The technical details of the debate are clearly explained even though there is no heavy mathematics or statistics. He tells the story chronologically and gives a good feel of what people on both sides of the debate actually said at the time (and there are plenty of references as well as judicious quotes from all sides). I have been following this debate for the past five years or so. To my mind this gives as clear an account of the debate as we are likely to see. What is now clear is that the Mann conclusions, far from being based on coherent evidence across a geographical widespread range of proxies all showing similar patterns across the Northern hemisphere, were based on a tiny subset of proxies, bristlecone and foxtail pines, from California whose anomalous 20th century growth was almost certainly not caused by high temperature. The apparently broad evidence was an illusion created by an eccentric implementation of a standard statistical technique called principal components analysis. Mann's version of this (which appears to be his own creation) effectively mined his hundred plus proxies for any which had hockeystick shapes and then gave them huge weight in the analysis. What is worrying about all this is not so much the fact that a paper is wrong. It is the failure to admit this when it is perfectly clear that it is wrong. Montford documents the evasions of debate and the consistent misrepresentation of what McIntyre and McKitrick actually said, as well as multiple refusals of access to data and clear descriptions of what had actually been done. By the time of the 2006 Wegman report it was clear that the hockeystick was broken, but it seems too much had been invested in it for people in paleoclimate to admit outright that it was just wrong. Montford tells this story too and documents the shenanigans surrounding the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. But rather than me attempting to condense the book into a paragraph I urge people to buy and read this excellent account. Note that it was largely written before the emails from CRU became public, though there is a final chapter dealing quickly with them. What is remarkable is how much of the story was already known to people who had been following the debate, but also the lengths people were prepared to go to try and stifle proper debate. For me the cover-up of the story has been a bigger influence in turning me sceptical than the mere fact of the hockey stick being wrong.
3 von 4 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x95129330) von 5 Sternen Lifting the lid on a global conspiracy - a brave attempt. 16. April 2015
Von Bruce Rapley - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
One of the most important books of modern times. A very erudite, well-read commentator on science and society, Montford demolishes the global warming scam, one lie at a time. This is one of the most important books to read if you are the least bit concerned about maintaining life on this planet. A very brave man, Monford stands agains the plethora of commentators who have been bought by governments and big industry to promote the myth of global warming as a thinly-veiled initiative to generate new income tax streams. This is book that is a MUST-READ.
HASH(0x95772924) von 5 Sternen Best understood if one has a degree in statistics 31. Oktober 2015
Von George MC Clellan - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Best understood if one has a degree in statistics, but very enlightening at any rate. Montford details the actions and arguments of all
players, exposing the unethical tactics that the originators of the hockey stick theory used to foist their scam on the public and, most harmfully, presented it to politicians for their misuse. You can read transcripts of some of the email exchanges among the players, further illuminating the development of the con job of the century.Complex story,. Excellent book.
3 von 5 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x95772804) von 5 Sternen An Important book on Bad Science 10. Februar 2015
Von rickzz - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
There's ample historical and temperature proxy evidence the world was warmer during the Medieval Warming period (1000-1300s) than today. Then, temperatures declined from 1300-1800s ("little ice age") before warming again in the late 19th century. This all happened at a time when CO2 levels were flat and much lower than today.

In the past century, global temperatures rose by ~1C (0.5C from the 1970s to 1990s) during a time when CO2 levels significantly increased due to industrialization. By itself, CO2 should warm the earth by ~1C per doubling of CO2 ("climate sensitivity"). Alarmists, though,hypothesize positive feedback will also kick in and magnify the sensitivity to 3-10C due to increased water vapor, which is the most powerful greenhouse gas. But this has never been proven and the real-world evidence is shaky at best (computer models don't count as real evidence). Since 1998, temperatures have been flat with slight random fluctuations. So it's both true that recent temperatures have been "flat" and also at "record" highs- unless you include the Medieval warming period. The MWP is significant then because it casts doubt on the notion that CO2 has high climate sensitivity. The simpler null hypothesis is that we're well within natural variation and that most of the 20th century warming was not due to CO2.

In 1998, Michael Mann et al published a temperature reconstruction of the past 1000 years with a "hockey stick" shape, which claimed to prove that the MWP wasn't that warm (or global) after all and that late 20th century temperatures were at unprecedented levels. The hockey stick became the face of AGW and convinced the public (myself included) that AGW was a dire threat.

In 2002, Steve McIntyre, a semi-retired Canadian mining consultant with extensive statistical expertise tried to reproduce the Hockey Stick. Montford's book is a blow-by-blow account of his and economist Ross McKitrick's long struggle to obtain the source code and data used for the hockey stick. Other reviews cover the details of this- the important fact is that McIntyre and McKitrick eventually proved the Hockey stick and other "independent" temperature reconstructions used by the IPCC are completely invalid. Along the way, we get a tutorial on "how NOT to do science"- it turns out that alarmist climate scientists were determined to eliminate the MWP so they cherry-picked data and "tortured" the statistics in order to get their desired outcome. Also, peer review of papers is often a rubber stamp- very few if any reviewers actually try to replicate the paper. And nearly all climate scientists refuse to divulge their source code and data- which makes independent replication near-impossible. (These revelations are disappointing but hardly unique- these practices are also quite common in the pharmaceutical industry where billions of dollars are also at stake.)

Montford's superb and exhaustively researched book is essential reading for those interested in the climate debate and its neglect by mainstream media is shameful. I regret not reading it sooner. (I had no interest in reading it back in 2010 because I figured it was written by a right-wing nut*. Since then, I've done my homework and I realize now- like most people who dig into it- that the "climate emperor has no clothes").

Also highly recommended is "Neglected Sun"(2013) by the same publisher, which focuses on the sun as a driver of climate change. It's certainly true the sun hasn't been proven (yet) to be a major factor in climate change- but that applies more so to CO2.

*Note: Montford is on record of saying he doesn't necessarily think AGW is wrong- only that the evidence for it doesn't exist yet.
131 von 191 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
HASH(0x95129468) von 5 Sternen 500 Wonderful Pages of "Caspar" from the Bishop! 7. Februar 2010
Von B. Hutchins - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
The "Bishop Hill" blog was well-respected, but not particularly remarkable until the posting of "Caspar and the Jesus paper" in August 2008. With this posting, we learned that the esteemed Bishop (now also revealed as Andrew Montford), the author of this new book, had a talent for putting scattered bits and pieces of information into a highly coherent presentation. It was remarkable enough that he was able to take myriad blog postings and figure out what they all added up to, and further remarkable that he was able to map this understanding into writing. Would it be possible to achieve this Casper-style in a more encompassing work? Too much to ask for? Well, HERE it is!

The narrative is highly readable, not mathematical, except that Montford does specifically give the official names of things. Instead of saying something like "they blew the math" he tells you how data were improperly normalized, or the use of SVD, and the consequences. In addition to describing the ill-advised technical issues, he describes appearance of the poor science (seeing what you want to see), other more common human foibles such as possible (or likely) "cherry-picking", and the suppression of contradicting evidence, all of which are not supposed to be in science.

While it would not be difficult, based on his blog perhaps, to discern the Bishop's views on AGW and its politics, the current book is basically impartial, except as it relates to the poor science and the overriding political motives of the AGW advocates. It deals rationally and fair-mindedly with the (illusion of the) Hockey stick graph. People commenting on the book are advised to direct criticisms, if any, on the basis of what he writes rather than what "camp" they perceive the author to belong to. This does involve actually reading the book however. Expect the usual reflex one star submissions from those who review just the title - and then go on to a few stock comment about the decline in the penguin population at the North Pole.

So, by the way, how DO you get to read the book. As of this writing, it does not appear to be widely available on Amazon in the US, and let's hope that will be directly available soon. I got mine from Amazon.UK, which was surprisingly easy - pretty much like this Amazon site. Shipping was about as much as the book, but I think it was only $26 with the shipping, and it arrived in 8 days by "Royal Mail". And it's a beefy book of almost 500 page-turning pages.
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