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The Hockey Stick Illusion
 
 

The Hockey Stick Illusion [Kindle Edition]

Andrew Montford
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Produktbeschreibungen

Kurzbeschreibung

Here is the definitive exposé of the distorted science behind the iconic global warming graph centrally responsible for the global panic about climate change.

From Steve McIntyre's earliest attempts to reproduce Michael Mann's Hockey Stick graph, to the explosive publication of his work and the launch of a congressional inquiry, The Hockey Stick Illusion is a remarkable tale of scientific misconduct and amateur sleuthing. It explains the complex science of this most controversial of temperature reconstructions in layperson's language and lays bare the remarkable extent to which climatologists have been willing to break their own rules in order to defend climate science's most famous finding.

The book also covers the recent leak of the email archives of the Climatic Research Unit which has led to the resignation of its Director, Professor Phil Jones, and exposed the degree to which climate scientists on both sides of the Atlantic have hidden and manipulated data to support their claims.

Produktinformation

  • Format: Kindle Edition
  • Dateigröße: 2979 KB
  • Seitenzahl der Print-Ausgabe: 489 Seiten
  • ISBN-Quelle für Seitenzahl: 1906768358
  • Verlag: Stacey International (6. Juni 2011)
  • Verkauf durch: Amazon Media EU S.à r.l.
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ASIN: B005A54KEM
  • Text-to-Speech (Vorlesemodus): Aktiviert
  • X-Ray:
  • Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 5.0 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (2 Kundenrezensionen)
  • Amazon Bestseller-Rang: #249.861 Bezahlt in Kindle-Shop (Siehe Top 100 Bezahlt in Kindle-Shop)

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12 von 13 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Recommended Reading 4. April 2010
Von sluning
Format:Taschenbuch
This book covers an interesting part of recent science history and reads like a thriller. I strongly recommend it to people who are unprejudiced and are interested in all sides of the climate change debate. Clearly, this book only covers the McIntyre & McKitrick side of the story and there would be a different interpretation and focus if friends of Mann et al. were to write their version of the events.

Despite this, the author A. W. Montford does a superb job in telling the story in a rather fair and transparent way, I think. The language always stays on the polite side, contrasting with some excessively aggressive communication styles in several well-known climate blogs. In this book one learns about the history of the hockey stick curve, how it supported the anthropogenic climate warming model, why it was needed and how it was put together. One learns the crucial role of statistics that can change the meaning of a whole dataset. We hear about suspicious tree ring datasets that have been used in the making of the hockeystick curve. Some of these datasets have been used by many authors as temperature proxies, even though these tree ring data might not always record temperature. We hear how hockeystick shapes can be generated out of random data. One wonders why data is not made openly available by the Hockey Team for independent checking of the results (something that normal reviewers cannot do due to time constraints). It might have to do with the fact that the resulting temperature curve failed the R2-statistical test which was considered as unimportant. We are also told that the alleged later "independent" confirmation of the Mann et al. temperature curve was carried out by a former PhD student of one of the original hockeystick authors (Bradley).
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5.0 von 5 Sternen Endlich mal Fakten 20. Dezember 2013
Von G. Rung
Format:Taschenbuch|Verifizierter Kauf
Endlich einmal Fakten und keine unreflektierten Glaubensbekenntnisse. Die Klimakatastrophenapologeten sollten sich mal mit der Komplexität des Problems auseinandersetzen und Vermutungen nicht als endliche Wahrheiten verkaufen.
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Amazon.com: 4.3 von 5 Sternen  78 Rezensionen
256 von 328 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen hockey story 25. Januar 2010
Von M. PHELPS - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
This is a superb review of the story of the hockeystick, the temperature reconstruction which was supposed to show that late 20th century temperatures were unprecedented for at least 1,000 years and which was highlighted in the third IPCC report in 2001. What Montford does in this book is take us through Steven McIntyre's attempt to reproduce the original result of Michael Mann and the controversy that followed. His account is very well written and it reads like a detective story. The technical details of the debate are clearly explained even though there is no heavy mathematics or statistics. He tells the story chronologically and gives a good feel of what people on both sides of the debate actually said at the time (and there are plenty of references as well as judicious quotes from all sides). I have been following this debate for the past five years or so. To my mind this gives as clear an account of the debate as we are likely to see. What is now clear is that the Mann conclusions, far from being based on coherent evidence across a geographical widespread range of proxies all showing similar patterns across the Northern hemisphere, were based on a tiny subset of proxies, bristlecone and foxtail pines, from California whose anomalous 20th century growth was almost certainly not caused by high temperature. The apparently broad evidence was an illusion created by an eccentric implementation of a standard statistical technique called principal components analysis. Mann's version of this (which appears to be his own creation) effectively mined his hundred plus proxies for any which had hockeystick shapes and then gave them huge weight in the analysis. What is worrying about all this is not so much the fact that a paper is wrong. It is the failure to admit this when it is perfectly clear that it is wrong. Montford documents the evasions of debate and the consistent misrepresentation of what McIntyre and McKitrick actually said, as well as multiple refusals of access to data and clear descriptions of what had actually been done. By the time of the 2006 Wegman report it was clear that the hockeystick was broken, but it seems too much had been invested in it for people in paleoclimate to admit outright that it was just wrong. Montford tells this story too and documents the shenanigans surrounding the fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. But rather than me attempting to condense the book into a paragraph I urge people to buy and read this excellent account. Note that it was largely written before the emails from CRU became public, though there is a final chapter dealing quickly with them. What is remarkable is how much of the story was already known to people who had been following the debate, but also the lengths people were prepared to go to try and stifle proper debate. For me the cover-up of the story has been a bigger influence in turning me sceptical than the mere fact of the hockey stick being wrong.
122 von 176 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen 500 Wonderful Pages of "Caspar" from the Bishop! 7. Februar 2010
Von B. Hutchins - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
The "Bishop Hill" blog was well-respected, but not particularly remarkable until the posting of "Caspar and the Jesus paper" in August 2008. With this posting, we learned that the esteemed Bishop (now also revealed as Andrew Montford), the author of this new book, had a talent for putting scattered bits and pieces of information into a highly coherent presentation. It was remarkable enough that he was able to take myriad blog postings and figure out what they all added up to, and further remarkable that he was able to map this understanding into writing. Would it be possible to achieve this Casper-style in a more encompassing work? Too much to ask for? Well, HERE it is!

The narrative is highly readable, not mathematical, except that Montford does specifically give the official names of things. Instead of saying something like "they blew the math" he tells you how data were improperly normalized, or the use of SVD, and the consequences. In addition to describing the ill-advised technical issues, he describes appearance of the poor science (seeing what you want to see), other more common human foibles such as possible (or likely) "cherry-picking", and the suppression of contradicting evidence, all of which are not supposed to be in science.

While it would not be difficult, based on his blog perhaps, to discern the Bishop's views on AGW and its politics, the current book is basically impartial, except as it relates to the poor science and the overriding political motives of the AGW advocates. It deals rationally and fair-mindedly with the (illusion of the) Hockey stick graph. People commenting on the book are advised to direct criticisms, if any, on the basis of what he writes rather than what "camp" they perceive the author to belong to. This does involve actually reading the book however. Expect the usual reflex one star submissions from those who review just the title - and then go on to a few stock comment about the decline in the penguin population at the North Pole.

So, by the way, how DO you get to read the book. As of this writing, it does not appear to be widely available on Amazon in the US, and let's hope that will be directly available soon. I got mine from Amazon.UK, which was surprisingly easy - pretty much like this Amazon site. Shipping was about as much as the book, but I think it was only $26 with the shipping, and it arrived in 8 days by "Royal Mail". And it's a beefy book of almost 500 page-turning pages.
71 von 103 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Vitally Important And Necessary 23. Februar 2010
Von Crosslands - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
Mr. Montford has written an extremely important and interesting book. The topic is scientific fraud, one of the biggest such frauds in the history of humanity. The fraud is the hockey stick assertion that the earth in the late twentieth century experienced unprecedented global warming and higher temperatures, at least for the past two thousand years. If this fraud had remained not refuted humanity would been subject to restrictions that would greatly reduce living standards and freedom. There is a lot a stake with the hockey stick hoax.

Mr. Montford describes in great detail how two courageous, persistent, and heroic Canadian researchers managed to refute the hockey stick hoax. Mr. Montford writes about how these Canadians managed to obtain the data and publish their work. Mr. Montford also goes into great detail about the misuse of data and poor methodology that characterized the hockey stick assertion. He provides a lot of information about the statistical principle components method and how this method was misused to derive the hockey stick shape for the world temperatures over the last thousand years. He also discusses the tree ring data and how such data that was represented to be a proxy for world temperature often was not. The book is encyclopedic in its discussion of the hockey stick hoax. Yet the book is very well written and understandable.

Mr. Montford also points out the hockey stick instigators and the climate journals they wrote for very often refused to provide independent researchers with the data and/or methodology for the articles in support of the hockey stick. Independent researchers had to put much time and effort into their efforts to replicate or at least partially replicate the statistical results of the hockey stick purveyors. Mr. Montford explains that this is not science. Real science demands that the data and other material pertaining to the experimental results be available for independent verification. This data and methodology was not easily or graciously provided by the hockey stick team, if the items were provided at all.

The book also goes into some detail about Al Gore's use of the hockey stick. Despite some of Al Gore's claims he used in his works the hockey stick of pseudo scientist Michael Mann.

The book demonstrates the scientific dogmatism and fraud is not just a past problem of Galileo's era. The potential for scientific fraud can exist any time establishment dogma and special interests exist. Only eternal vigilance can expose and halt this fraud.

The book is incredibly important. The story of the hockey stick hoax must be well known for the welfare of humanity. And this book is the only book so far that is devoted to tell this story. The book is an absolute must for everyone. The book is absolutely vital.
69 von 100 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Chilling case study of scientific corruption 6. Februar 2010
Von Humaine Optomist - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
This excellent book operates on two levels. First, it details the tangled web of deception that made "the hockey stick illusion" the iconic image of the monstrous "Anthropogenic Global Warming" fraud.
Montford makes generally understandable the arcane issues of statistical manipulation that lie at the heart of the false "science." He does so in a narrative that is clear, riveting and horrifying. As a result of the duplicity of the Hockey Team and the IPCC, billions have been spent and we have no idea whether or how human beings may affect climate change. We are at square one.
Second, Montford uses this saga as a case study for the need to require transparency and access to all data and code that underpin scientific claims, especially the research that is used to support government policies.
Clearly so many people were fooled for so long by this particular statistical legerdemain because, without access to the underlying data and code, the effort required to replicate and find the flaws in Mann's Hockey Stick was almost impossible.
Thank Heaven for a retired mathematician - Steve McIntyre - who undertook the thousands of hours (and dollars) required to find and prove the flaws in this duplicitous artifact of NOT Science.
What is needed is a very intense investigation of how the public interest can be protected from such frauds - whether in climate science, financial derivatives, medical policies, etc. To err is human - but to really mess up, it takes a computer! Bravo to A.W. Montford who made the whole story understandable to a mathematically impaired reader like me.
6 von 8 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen How the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) distorts science 7. März 2014
Von Stephen A Rowland - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Kindle Edition|Verifizierter Kauf
This book exposes the shenanigans at the IPCC. Michael Mann's work which led to the famous hockey stick model of climate change made famous by Al Gore is shown to be full of errors.

The book is well documented, not an easy read, but a detailed history showing what lengths the IPCC cabal will go to to protect their treasured theory of climate change.

The IPCC has about as much credibility as the United Nations. It is political and self serving.
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Beliebte Markierungen

 (Was ist das?)
&quote;
that no effective independent review of Manns work was likely (see Figure 9.2) and where mistakes were made, it was difficult for climatologists to correct their work: &quote;
Markiert von 7 Kindle-Nutzern
&quote;
If tree rings didnt pick up the warming now, how could anyone be sure that they had picked up earlier warmings like the disputed Medieval Warm Period? &quote;
Markiert von 6 Kindle-Nutzern
&quote;
They had concluded that the Medieval Warm Period was in fact a real, significant feature of climate history. &quote;
Markiert von 5 Kindle-Nutzern

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