Gamble to Win Advanced Craps [Englisch] [Taschenbuch]

I can not write a strong enough criticism of this book. It holds itself out to be informative self-help, but in reality it is part fiction and part fairy tale.

The book is based loosely on what Mr. Ellison has dubbed the Theory of Statistical Propensity. Mr. Ellison (whom it should be noted at this point has the mathematical credentials of a short order cook) stews up his bland theory by reheating the old Gambler's Fallacy - a meritless contention that numbers on the dice, the roulette wheel, or whatever contraption you are currently losing your rent on, are somehow "due to hit." He dresses it up as a mathematical theory but it is in fact the same old fool's notion: That random numbers appear in patterns and that the laws of probability run hot and cold.

Had Mr. Ellison not dozed off in high school math class, he would know that the reason numbers tend to even out to the statistical mean over time is that larger and larger sample sizes help to smooth out apparent statistical inequities.

For example: if you flip a coin one hundred times, it's entirely possible that every single flip will land on heads. That's 100% for heads. Now flip one hundred additional times and you might get an even split, 50 head and 50 tails. That brings our total heads count to 50 heads out of 200. Still a significant 75% heads advantage, but closer to the inherent 50% probability than before, no?

Now flip that coin another 1,000,000 times.

When you finally build up a significant enough sample size (1,000,000, in our example) a measly 150 flip head advantage is de minimus. Heck a heads advantage of 10,000 barely moves the needle. That's why numbers draw to a statistical average, Mr. Ellison, not by some cosmic force pulling the coin in one direction or another. It's why a casino can run a profitable business with games where the house advantage is a slim 2% or less. You may walk out a winner one day, every day one week, even every day one whole lucky year. But keep pressing that improbability and you will find over time the sample size will start to work against you and you will lose. Its not some genie in the dice, it's called "regression to statistical mean". Google it.

Aside from his Intelligent Design Theory of Dice, Mr. Ellison imparts the following gems of wisdom:

- If your dice hit chips during a throw the probability of rolling a 7 is statistically increased.

- If the stickman changes, the probability of throwing a 7 next roll is statistically increased.

-If your dice accidenatlly go off of the table, the probability of throwing a 7 is statistically increased.

Again, Mr. Ellison doesn't bother to do any critical thinking here. He fails to step back from his own delusions and recognize these triggers for what they are: memorable events outside of the normal course of play - anchors that his tiny mind can recognize, glom on and refer back to. It is much more convenient to pick up on these memorable cues than the millions of other variables which simply fail to capture his attention. Does the dice thrower put his weight on his right or left leg during the throw? Is there an odd or even dollar amount of money being wagered this throw by the third person on the left? These are events that have just as much impact on the random throw of the dice. I wonder why he his attention isn't drawn to these peculiarities? Could it be he's just not that creative? Or is it rather that these events, just like the ones he cites, don't have any impact on the roll at all?

When I purchased this book I wanted an intelligent discussion about the mathematical odds of each wager and some traditional patterns of betting to crib off of. What I got was a 200+ pages of superstition and snarky barbs at the recognized authorities in the field who did not return his emails and calls (with good reason, it turns out).

If I had more time I would write 200+ pages of my own, and that wouldn't even begin to describe all of the reasons why you SHOULD NOT BUY THIS BOOK!

Fortunately, I bought this book for almost nothing from a remainder dealer. Unfortunately, any price over $0.00 is much too high. I am a professional mathematician and a skilled poker player and casino gambler, and this book made me feel embarrassed for the author.

I will freely give the following good points to the book: There is some discussion in here on what it takes, personally, to be a professional gambler, in terms of discipline and lifestyle. He has a list of "Ellison's 10 rules" or something like that which, while not specifically applying to craps, generally constitute a solid body of good advice for people that want to take gambling seriously. I found many of the things listed to be applicable and delightfully pithy and compact advice useful, for example, to aspiring poker players.

But that constitutes maybe 10% of the book. And then, he starts talking about craps...and it's all precipitously and recklessly downhill thereafter...

This guy is what Isaac Asimov, in his forward to "Scientists Confront Velikovsky", called an "exo-heretic". Namely, a person who, having no formal credentials in the field he is opining on, has ridiculous ideas that he considers revolutionary, but believes are being suppressed by an academic conspiracy. In reality, the exo-heretic is ignored because he is a full-fledged nutjob, not because there is a conspiracy. Welcome to nutjob territory, Mr. Ellison.

But, enough of the ad hominen attack. What does Ellison say, exactly? I'm so glad you asked. Basically, using his massive credentials as a scientist (i.e., none), sprinkled with the most unbelievable megalomaniacal diatribes, he formalizes (LOL) the "revolutionary" concept that "mathematicians are ignoring because it threatens their worldview" of "statistical propensity". This is the same Gamblers' Fallacy-denying whale feces that Casino Player Magazine rejects time and time and time and time again, like the Patent Office rejects perpetual motion machines.

One chapter is devoted to impugning statisticians and mathematicians as part of a globalist ivory tower cabal that "refuse to justify their views". Furthermore, the "mainstream" gaming literature is (of course) in cahoots with (or, Ellison admits is possible, the unwitting dupes of) our cabal; in reality, the mathematicians and statisticians with which he has communicated have (eventually and correctly) identified Ellison as a caustic nutjob/quack, and have no desire to continue wasting their time.

The rest of the book is devoted to his mathematics-denying, statistics-denying, science-denying, Gamblers' Fallacy-denying pet theory, where he posits some as yet unresearched force is responsible for runs of dice and so forth. (To be fair, he doesn't really completely DENY the Gamblers' Fallacy--he merely re-explains it as a result of a supernatural conspiratorial force; a force whose momentum you can track and tap.) In support of these theories, he offers no expert testimony or research (which he freely admits, but then ascribes to the conspiracy, of course), but he does offer the full record of several dice runs that he recorded that, if you turn sideways and do the Macarena, might support his ridiculous epistle. The problem, of course, is that the list would have to be about...375000 times as long (by my calculus) to have reasonable mathematical gravitas. If you buy his malarkey, then he gives you a roadmap to unlocking the secrets of this "statistical propensity" force.

In a nutshell then:

1) Scientists and Mathematicians: This is actually somewhat amusing on some level. You might buy it just for the pseudoscientific exposition contained within the pages. Philosophers of science, too, might enjoy this, as from Kuhn to Popper to Feyerabend, this guy would be considered ridiculously unscientific.

2) Gamblers that believe in the Gamblers' Fallacy and are actually looking for something to learn: skip this book. There is nothing in here for you, except pain and misdirection.

3) Gamblers that think there are spooky forces out there that influence future dice rolls (for example, if you take all your place bets off whenever the shooter rolls a craps, because you think sevens come after craps rolls): Buy this book immediately, and if I ever own a casino, please, please, please, please, come play at it.

I'm sure Mr. Ellison is a good guy. But I'm equally sure he has absolutely no idea what he is talking about, and in any country but the United States, would be legally prevented, as a matter of public decency, from speaking on technical and mathematical matters. That being said, there will be no shortage of not-very-educated people that will think this stuff is genius. Maybe the fact that I am over-educated has, uh, blinded me to the simple truth that Ellison is espousing. But...probably not. The evidence of that is that the book is published by a fringe publishing house, and appears to have been copy-edited by a mandrill on LSD.

I have known Mr. Ellison for several years so the reader could say my review is biased. Before his books came along there wasn't much out there that gave practical advice on gambling. He has been in the trenches for years fighting the casino games and winning. The tester in the back of this book is a testament to this. No one could have played that long if they were losing! Beating a system tester (Roulette) is no easy task let me tell you! If there were no trends in gambling results then there would be no point to gambling in the first place. You can use all kinds of mathematics if you want to disprove this but if you are going to gamble then you better believe in them! The theory of statistical propensity and his explaination of it proves that the results are dependent on the precision of the dice (wheel, etc.) but we don't have to understand this to play the games. As usual Mr. Ellison has come up with another book to give us food for thought.