oder
Loggen Sie sich ein, um 1-Click® einzuschalten.
 
 
Alle Angebote
80 Angebote ab EUR 2,98
Möchten Sie verkaufen? Hier verkaufen
 
   
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
 
 
Für Kunden: Stellen Sie Ihre eigenen Bilder ein.
Hier reinlesen und suchen

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Taschenbuch)

von Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Autor) "Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time ..." (mehr)
4.4 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (9 Kundenrezensionen)
Statt: EUR 8,00
Jetzt: EUR 7,90 kostenlose Lieferung. Siehe Details.
Sie sparen: EUR 0,10 (1%)
o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o
Auf Lager.
Verkauf und Versand durch Amazon.de. Geschenkverpackung verfügbar.

Lieferung bis Dienstag, 23. März: Wählen Sie an der Kasse Overnight-Express. Siehe Details.
66 neu ab EUR 2,99 14 gebraucht ab EUR 2,98
Weitere Ausgaben: Preis: Weitere Angebote:
Gebundene Ausgabe (2 Updated) EUR 21,99 23 Angebote ab EUR 12,49
Taschenbuch (2nd) 5 Angebote ab EUR 25,72
Audio CD (Audiobook,Ungekürzte Ausgabe) EUR 34,99 11 Angebote ab EUR 18,00

Wird oft zusammen gekauft

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets + The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable + Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
Preis für alle drei: EUR 21,18

Verfügbarkeit und Versanddetails anzeigen

  • Dieser Artikel: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets von Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    Auf Lager.
    Verkauf und Versand durch Amazon.de.
    Kostenlose Lieferung bei einem Bestellwert ab EUR 20. Details

  • The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable von Nassim Nicholas Taleb

    Auf Lager.
    Verkauf und Versand durch Amazon.de.
    Kostenlose Lieferung bei einem Bestellwert ab EUR 20. Details

  • Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything von Steven D. Levitt

    Auf Lager.
    Verkauf und Versand durch Amazon.de.
    Kostenlose Lieferung bei einem Bestellwert ab EUR 20. Details

Kunden, die diesen Artikel gekauft haben, kauften auch

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

von Nassim Nicholas Taleb
3.5 von 5 Sternen (23)  EUR 7,43
The (Mis) Behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward

The (Mis) Behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward

von Benoit B. Mandelbrot
3.4 von 5 Sternen (7)  EUR 11,60
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

von Steven D. Levitt
4.1 von 5 Sternen (25)  EUR 5,85
The Wisdom of Crowds

The Wisdom of Crowds

von James Surowiecki
4.8 von 5 Sternen (10)  EUR 9,59
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions

Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions

von Dan Ariely
4.6 von 5 Sternen (5)  EUR 8,10
› Weitere Artikel entdecken

Produktinformation

  • Taschenbuch: 368 Seiten
  • Verlag: Penguin (3. Mai 2007)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ISBN-10: 0141031484
  • ISBN-13: 978-0141031484
  • Größe und/oder Gewicht: 19,8 x 12,4 x 2,2 cm
  • Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 4.4 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (9 Kundenrezensionen)
  • Amazon.de Verkaufsrang: Nr. 365 in Englische Bücher (Die Bestseller Englische Bücher)

    Beliebt in dieser Kategorie:

    Nr. 2 in  Englische Bücher > Business & Investing > Investing

    •  Möchten Sie die Produktinformationen aktualisieren oder Feedback zu den Produktabbildungen geben?

Produktbeschreibungen

Amazon.com

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine vergriffene oder nicht verfügbare Ausgabe dieses Titels.

From Publishers Weekly

In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget.

Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information, Inc.

-- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine vergriffene oder nicht verfügbare Ausgabe dieses Titels.
Alle Produktbeschreibungen

Was kaufen Kunden, nachdem sie diesen Artikel angesehen haben?

Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
75% kaufen den auf dieser Seite vorgestellten Artikel:
Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets 4.4 von 5 Sternen (9)
EUR 7,90
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
10% kaufen
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable 3.5 von 5 Sternen (23)
EUR 7,43
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
6% kaufen
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything 4.1 von 5 Sternen (25)
EUR 5,85
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions
5% kaufen
Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces that Shape Our Decisions 4.6 von 5 Sternen (5)
EUR 8,10
Weitere Artikel entdecken
In diesem Buch (Mehr dazu)
Einleitungssatz
Croesus, King of Lydia, was considered the richest man of his time. Lesen Sie die erste Seite
Ausgewählte Seiten ansehen
Buchdeckel | Copyright | Inhaltsverzeichnis | Auszug | Stichwortverzeichnis | Rückseite
Hier reinlesen und suchen:

Tags, die Kunden mit diesem Produkt verbinden

 (Was ist das?)
Klicken Sie zum Suchen verwandter Artikel, Diskussionen oder Personen auf ein Tag.
 
(1)
(1)
(1)
Stimmen Sie diesen Tags zu?

 
Beliebteste Tags anzeigen
 

Kundenrezensionen

9 Rezensionen
5 Sterne:
 (7)
4 Sterne:
 (1)
3 Sterne:    (0)
2 Sterne:    (0)
1 Sterne:
 (1)
 
 
 
 
 
Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung
4.4 von 5 Sternen (9 Kundenrezensionen)
 
 
 
 
Sagen Sie Ihre Meinung zu diesem Artikel:
Die hilfreichsten Kundenrezensionen

 
10 von 10 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich:
5.0 von 5 Sternen Managing Unpredictable Variations in Order to Prosper!, 16. Mai 2007
Von Professor Donald Mitchell "Jesus Makes Me a P... (Thanks for Providing My Reviews over 93,000 Helpful Votes Globally) - Alle meine Rezensionen ansehen
(TOP 50 REZENSENT)   
Rezension übernommen von: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Taschenbuch)
Every person who is interested in investing should read this book!

In investing, few can tell the difference between being lucky and smart. Being successful in the short term can come from either source. If it is coming from unrecognized sources of luck, however, the behavior that the investor associates with success can sink the ship. The cautionary tale of Long Term Capital Management is cited in the book as an example of this point. "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" is the wonderful reversal here on the old saw.

I see this effect all the time in my consulting practice with helping companies understand how their decisions affect their stock price. A large percentage of people feel that they know all the answers when their stock price is rising. They keep doing the same things when the stocks are falling. Few survive to still have top jobs when the cycle shifts again. Then a new group of self-confident people take over who often don't know any more than those who preceded them. Its just that their track records look better.

Fooled by Randomness will help make you more knowledgeably humble about what you can expect to accomplish with investments. Not only do fewer than one percent outperform the market averages over long time periods, the ones who do are probably often being aided by luck as well. "Get thee to the index funds as soon as possible" is the message that most should take away from this book. Better yet, buy them when multiples are low!

The book's fundamental point is that there is tremendous volatility in any investment. Ignore that volatility to your peril.

At the same time, you should be cautious about how well you understand the volatility. Stocks at their lows can still go to zero. There are all kinds of events that can happen, that have not done so yet. When they do, throw out all the old rules of investing. The terrorist attacks on the United States last week are probably an example of this. So each investment must be made as though you could be totally wrong. This means that you have to manage your risk exposure to events you don't even know how to expect.

I loved his example of the joint probabilities of having a rare disease if you get a positive result on a test for that disease. Even most doctors apparently don't know how to evaluate that one. If even well educated people cannot quantify two known risks occurring simultaneously in their own field, how can investors be expected to make good decisions?

Dr. Taleb has some very good advice for how to handle the psychology of being able to do this. He upholds the Stoic ideal -- "the attempt by man to get even with probability" which encourages "wisdom, upright dealing, and courage." This means not chasing the latest investment fad or fashion, not looking at your investments very often, and being open to both sides of any idea (it could go wrong as well as right -- what are the consequences of both?). I especially liked his idea of watching CNBC with the sound off so that the "experts" seem humorous and you are less likely to hear and follow their advice. Even more poignant was his advice not to live on Park Avenue where living with all of the arrogant, temporarily lucky can make you feel small. Instead, live somewhere that the results of your cautious approach will cause you to be the envy of all.

Dr. Taleb impressed me with his willingness to tell stories on himself about how quickly he can become superstitious when things are going well, take on excess risks, and start looking too short term. After all, we are only human!

The importance of this book can only be appreciated if you go back and think about your biggest investing successes. How much was luck versus skill? A good way to test is to see if the same approach has continued to work for you whenever you use it. Another good test is to see how often it would have backfired in the past.

In my research on good decision making, I find that those who guard the downside first make the most money in the long run. They are able to find ways to get the best of both worlds!

Remember that the two-edged sword can cut in either direction!
Helfen Sie anderen Kunden bei der Suche nach den hilfreichsten Rezensionen  
War diese Rezension für Sie hilfreich? Ja Nein


 
18 von 19 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich:
5.0 von 5 Sternen Managing Unpredictable Variations in Order to Prosper!, 16. Mai 2007
Von Professor Donald Mitchell "Jesus Makes Me a P... (Thanks for Providing My Reviews over 93,000 Helpful Votes Globally) - Alle meine Rezensionen ansehen
(TOP 50 REZENSENT)   
Every person who is interested in investing should read this book!

In investing, few can tell the difference between being lucky and smart. Being successful in the short term can come from either source. If it is coming from unrecognized sources of luck, however, the behavior that the investor associates with success can sink the ship. The cautionary tale of Long Term Capital Management is cited in the book as an example of this point. "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" is the wonderful reversal here on the old saw.

I see this effect all the time in my consulting practice with helping companies understand how their decisions affect their stock price. A large percentage of people feel that they know all the answers when their stock price is rising. They keep doing the same things when the stocks are falling. Few survive to still have top jobs when the cycle shifts again. Then a new group of self-confident people take over who often don't know any more than those who preceded them. It's just that their track records look better.

Fooled by Randomness will help make you more knowledgeably humble about what you can expect to accomplish with investments. Not only do fewer than one percent outperform the market averages over long time periods, the ones who do are probably often being aided by luck as well. "Get thee to the index funds as soon as possible" is the message that most should take away from this book. Better yet, buy them when multiples are low!

The book's fundamental point is that there is tremendous volatility in any investment. Ignore that volatility to your peril.

At the same time, you should be cautious about how well you understand the volatility. Stocks at their lows can still go to zero. There are all kinds of events that can happen, that have not done so yet. When they do, throw out all the old rules of investing. The terrorist attacks on the United States last week are probably an example of this. So each investment must be made as though you could be totally wrong. This means that you have to manage your risk exposure to events you don't even know how to expect.

I loved his example of the joint probabilities of having a rare disease if you get a positive result on a test for that disease. Even most doctors apparently don't know how to evaluate that one. If even well educated people cannot quantify two known risks occurring simultaneously in their own field, how can investors be expected to make good decisions?

Dr. Taleb has some very good advice for how to handle the psychology of being able to do this. He upholds the Stoic ideal -- "the attempt by man to get even with probability" which encourages "wisdom, upright dealing, and courage." This means not chasing the latest investment fad or fashion, not looking at your investments very often, and being open to both sides of any idea (it could go wrong as well as right -- what are the consequences of both?). I especially liked his idea of watching CNBC with the sound off so that the "experts" seem humorous and you are less likely to hear and follow their advice. Even more poignant was his advice not to live on Park Avenue where living with all of the arrogant, temporarily lucky can make you feel small. Instead, live somewhere that the results of your cautious approach will cause you to be the envy of all.

Dr. Taleb impressed me with his willingness to tell stories on himself about how quickly he can become superstitious when things are going well, take on excess risks, and start looking too short term. After all, we are only human!

The importance of this book can only be appreciated if you go back and think about your biggest investing successes. How much was luck versus skill? A good way to test is to see if the same approach has continued to work for you whenever you use it. Another good test is to see how often it would have backfired in the past.

In my research on good decision making, I find that those who guard the downside first make the most money in the long run. They are able to find ways to get the best of both worlds!

Remember that the two-edged sword can cut in either direction!
Helfen Sie anderen Kunden bei der Suche nach den hilfreichsten Rezensionen  
War diese Rezension für Sie hilfreich? Ja Nein


 
7 von 7 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich:
4.0 von 5 Sternen Insideview eines Zufallsexperten, 1. September 2004
Rezension übernommen von: Fooled by Randomness (Taschenbuch)
Nicholas Taleb, ein Wall Street Trader beschreibt pointiert die Mechanik der Märkte und die Rolle des Zufalls. Dabei schildert er sehr eindrucksvoll und mit Geschichten, die man nicht so schnell wieder vergißt, wie sehr doch der Markt und damit der Zufall die Geschicke der Märkte und nicht zuletzt auch unser Leben bestimmt.
Einerseits desillusionierend, weil er den Einfluß des Einzlnen auf seine "Börsengeschicke" drastisch in Frage stellt, andererseits könnte man hier ein paar lebenswichtige Reflexe lernen. Tips für Börsengewinne wird man hier nicht finden aber einen fantastischen Spiegel an dem man seine Selbstüberzeugung sehr gut testen kann.
Für alle, die sich mit Märkten oder auch nur dem Lauf der Dinge beschäftigen ein lehrreiches Buch, das sehr vom individuellen Erzählstil des Autors geprägt ist.
Helfen Sie anderen Kunden bei der Suche nach den hilfreichsten Rezensionen  
War diese Rezension für Sie hilfreich? Ja Nein

Sagen Sie Ihre Meinung zu diesem Artikel: Eigene Rezension erstellen
 
 
 
Die neuesten Kundenrezensionen

5.0 von 5 Sternen Warum Wall Street Trader ihr Geld nicht wert sind
Mir hat das Buch - ungewöhnlicherweise - noch besser gefallen als das bekanntere Buch von Taleb (The Black Swan). Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 5 Monaten von Johannes Hansen veröffentlicht

5.0 von 5 Sternen Learn how to deal with uncertanties
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, professor for risk engineering at the NYU and former trader, describes in this book the underestimated influence of chance and rare events on our daily life... Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 6 Monaten von Benedikt Parstorfer veröffentlicht

5.0 von 5 Sternen Astonishing book
I think that this book is one of the most important books that has been written so far. It can make a deep impact on everyone who is willing to follow the author and to think... Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 19 Monaten von Maddemathiger veröffentlicht

5.0 von 5 Sternen A great and important book!
This book is one of the most important books ever written! Although it may seem far fetched I think that this is true for several reasons. Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 20 Monaten von Maddemathiger veröffentlicht

1.0 von 5 Sternen Nothing new in this book
This books contains nothing new for a well-read reader. People with interest in finance and randomness are better off buying a statistics book and a good finance book. Lesen Sie weiter...
Am 12. Juli 2002 veröffentlicht

5.0 von 5 Sternen Great, witty, funny, arrogant, smart
To me the book of the year together with Alain de Botton's "Consolations of Philosophy". Should be recommended by the "The Economist"
Veröffentlicht am 8. November 2001 von Dr. Michael Terhoeven

Nur in den Rezensionen zu diesem Produkt suchen


Kunden diskutieren

Das Forum zu diesem Produkt
Diskussion Antworten Jüngster Beitrag
Noch keine Diskussionen

Fragen stellen. Meinungen austauschen. Neues erfahren.
Neue Diskussion starten
Thema:
Erster Beitrag:
Eingabe des Log-ins
 


Aktive Diskussionen in ähnlichen Foren
   
Ähnliche Foren

Lieblingslisten

Legen Sie Ihre eigene Lieblingsliste an

Ähnliche Artikel finden

Anhand des Sachgebietes nach ähnlichen Produkten suchen:


















Das bedeutet, jeder Titel/Artikel muss zu Sachgebiet 1 UND zu Sachgebiet 2 UND... gehören.

Ihr Kommentar

Möchten Sie die Produktinformationen aktualisieren oder Feedback zu den Produktabbildungen geben?

Datenschutzerklärung von Amazon.de Versandbedingungen von Amazon.de Umtausch- & Rücknahme bei Amazon.de

Für Sie dokumentiert

 (Was ist das?)

Sobald Sie sich Produktseiten oder Suchergebnisse angesehen haben, finden Sie diese Seiten zu Ihrer Information hier aufgeführt.