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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets [Kindle Edition]

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
4.1 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (21 Kundenrezensionen)

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Produktbeschreibungen

Amazon.de

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards

Amazon.com

If the prescriptions for getting rich that are outlined in books such as The Millionaire Next Door and Rich Dad Poor Dad are successful enough to make the books bestsellers, then one must ask, Why aren't there more millionaires? In Fooled by Randomness, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a professional trader and mathematics professor, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill. This eccentric and highly personal exploration of the nature of randomness meanders from the court of Croesus and trading rooms in New York and London to Russian roulette, Monte Carlo engines, and the philosophy of Karl Popper. Part of what makes this book so good is Taleb's ability to make seemingly arcane mathematical concepts (at least to this reviewer) entirely relevant in evaluating and understanding everything from the stock market to the success of those millionaires cited in the aforementioned bestsellers. Here's an articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider. Highly recommended. --Harry C. Edwards

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21 von 23 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Von Donald Mitchell TOP 500 REZENSENT
Format:Taschenbuch
Every person who is interested in investing should read this book!

In investing, few can tell the difference between being lucky and smart. Being successful in the short term can come from either source. If it is coming from unrecognized sources of luck, however, the behavior that the investor associates with success can sink the ship. The cautionary tale of Long Term Capital Management is cited in the book as an example of this point. "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" is the wonderful reversal here on the old saw.

I see this effect all the time in my consulting practice with helping companies understand how their decisions affect their stock price. A large percentage of people feel that they know all the answers when their stock price is rising. They keep doing the same things when the stocks are falling. Few survive to still have top jobs when the cycle shifts again. Then a new group of self-confident people take over who often don't know any more than those who preceded them. It's just that their track records look better.

Fooled by Randomness will help make you more knowledgeably humble about what you can expect to accomplish with investments. Not only do fewer than one percent outperform the market averages over long time periods, the ones who do are probably often being aided by luck as well. "Get thee to the index funds as soon as possible" is the message that most should take away from this book. Better yet, buy them when multiples are low!

The book's fundamental point is that there is tremendous volatility in any investment. Ignore that volatility to your peril.

At the same time, you should be cautious about how well you understand the volatility. Stocks at their lows can still go to zero.
Lesen Sie weiter... ›
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10 von 12 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Von Donald Mitchell TOP 500 REZENSENT
Format:Taschenbuch
Every person who is interested in investing should read this book!

In investing, few can tell the difference between being lucky and smart. Being successful in the short term can come from either source. If it is coming from unrecognized sources of luck, however, the behavior that the investor associates with success can sink the ship. The cautionary tale of Long Term Capital Management is cited in the book as an example of this point. "If you're so rich, why aren't you smart?" is the wonderful reversal here on the old saw.

I see this effect all the time in my consulting practice with helping companies understand how their decisions affect their stock price. A large percentage of people feel that they know all the answers when their stock price is rising. They keep doing the same things when the stocks are falling. Few survive to still have top jobs when the cycle shifts again. Then a new group of self-confident people take over who often don't know any more than those who preceded them. It's just that their track records look better.

Fooled by Randomness will help make you more knowledgeably humble about what you can expect to accomplish with investments. Not only do fewer than one percent outperform the market averages over long time periods, the ones who do are probably often being aided by luck as well. "Get thee to the index funds as soon as possible" is the message that most should take away from this book. Better yet, buy them when multiples are low!

The book's fundamental point is that there is tremendous volatility in any investment. Ignore that volatility to your peril.

At the same time, you should be cautious about how well you understand the volatility. Stocks at their lows can still go to zero.
Lesen Sie weiter... ›
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13 von 16 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
4.0 von 5 Sternen Insideview eines Zufallsexperten 1. September 2004
Format:Taschenbuch
Nicholas Taleb, ein Wall Street Trader beschreibt pointiert die Mechanik der Märkte und die Rolle des Zufalls. Dabei schildert er sehr eindrucksvoll und mit Geschichten, die man nicht so schnell wieder vergißt, wie sehr doch der Markt und damit der Zufall die Geschicke der Märkte und nicht zuletzt auch unser Leben bestimmt.
Einerseits desillusionierend, weil er den Einfluß des Einzlnen auf seine "Börsengeschicke" drastisch in Frage stellt, andererseits könnte man hier ein paar lebenswichtige Reflexe lernen. Tips für Börsengewinne wird man hier nicht finden aber einen fantastischen Spiegel an dem man seine Selbstüberzeugung sehr gut testen kann.
Für alle, die sich mit Märkten oder auch nur dem Lauf der Dinge beschäftigen ein lehrreiches Buch, das sehr vom individuellen Erzählstil des Autors geprägt ist.
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1 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Format:Taschenbuch|Verifizierter Kauf
Having read Taleb's great book "Black Swan", I have started reading this piece. However, after reading through 30% of this book, I quickly got bored and lost my interest. Beyond describing vaguely some statistical concepts ("Monte Carlo" simulation) it does not add any insights. The book is not written in an encouraging way and I miss the author's great style of his first book. I do not recommend buying this book.
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3 von 4 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
3.0 von 5 Sternen Learn to think critically with care 2. September 2010
Format:Taschenbuch|Verifizierter Kauf
This book is admirable in its courage to address the subject of uncertainty and coincidence and its willingness to stand up to it. It is one of a kind in that it can help you cultivate and indulge in an attitude of critical thinking, in a strive for maturity. But I would caution you to contemplate that it likes a certain attitude of black and white, of simple pro and contra. Also, it uses cliché, that is long standing relatively simple ideas of popular knowledge. I am aware, that many well educated people do that too, but that is not the point here. The perhaps too weighty power of the books standpoint in my opinion comes from the fact that it jumps to and fro from generalities to special cases in a very free, actually even in a selfindulgent way. To my mind, it is a bit too obliquious to the fact that the people it critisizes are often very intelligent, experts in their field with a history of many years weighing different ideas against each other and prioritising them. Of course, such people can be selfindulgent too, of course they can at times take advantage of others, that are less knowledgable and less versatile in their thinking, by presenting false ideas of certainties and securities. But they do not always do it, or as a general rule. They do not routinely lose their way. My point of criticism is, that this book is a bit too arrogant in the absoluteness of its comments. Lesen Sie weiter... ›
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Die neuesten Kundenrezensionen
5.0 von 5 Sternen top
super geiles buch aber nicht gerade einfache kost. kein buch für zwischendruch sondern eher was zum hinsetzten und konzentrieren top
Vor 5 Monaten von cez veröffentlicht
5.0 von 5 Sternen Der Start einer großen Serie
Mit seinem ersten Buch hat NNT, wie wir heute wissen, sein Incerto gestartet. Ein großer Auftakt mit bestechenden Denkansätzen, überzeugenden Argumenten und einer... Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 8 Monaten von zonenkind69 veröffentlicht
5.0 von 5 Sternen Sehr empfehlenswert
bitte Lesen! Ich empfehle dieses unkonventionelle Buch. Sehr unterhaltsam und gleichzeitig lehrreich. Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 18 Monaten von Frank Herrmann veröffentlicht
5.0 von 5 Sternen Gut
Wahrscheinlichkeit, Zufall oder Konseqenz? Wer algmeines Interesse and diesen Themen hat, dem kann dieses Buch empfohlen werden. Lesen Sie weiter...
Vor 19 Monaten von Amazon Customer veröffentlicht
5.0 von 5 Sternen Warum wir den Zufall nicht sehen...
Ein wirklich bemerkenswertes Buch!

Taleb räumt auf mit dem Irrsinn die Zukunft stringent zu planen oder vorher zu sagen, als wäre die Zukunft ein linearer... Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 31. Oktober 2012 von Carsten Krautwald
5.0 von 5 Sternen Should be compulsory reading for all politicians and economists!
It sounds like a cliché but this book really has altered the way I look at the world. I liked Black Swan but in some ways this is even better. Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 6. November 2011 von Mark Whitwill
5.0 von 5 Sternen Bestens für Realisten, aber nichts für Geschäftsleute
Trotz des Titels handelt es sich hier nicht um ein Wirtschaftsbuch. Wie sehr Geschäftsleute Talebs Punkt missverstehen, sieht man schon daran, dass eine der bekanntesten... Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 21. Februar 2011 von Konz
1.0 von 5 Sternen Trivial Content
"Fooled by Randomness" is a book that takes 300 pages (in the 2nd edition) to describe very few basic statistical concepts that are probably taught in every college statistics 101... Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 23. Oktober 2010 von Dreamer
1.0 von 5 Sternen couldn't finish it
oh my Gosch, how could it be four stars! I really push myself to keeping moving on with it imaging after some flat chapters but couldn't help to give it up half way. Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 3. September 2010 von djedith
5.0 von 5 Sternen One of the best books ever
I was staying in India for a couple of weeks and was reading this book in full detail, every single page a couple of times. Lesen Sie weiter...
Veröffentlicht am 23. Juli 2010 von harald
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