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Economic Forecasting and Policy (Englisch) Taschenbuch – 27. Juli 2011


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Produktbeschreibungen

Pressestimmen

'This book manages to pull off being both a beginners guide and an experts go-to reference for the big questions on this increasingly important topic. As the world rebuilds from the greatest economic shock of this generation, books such as these will be devoured in the hope of finding the solution to ensure such a catastrophe will never happen again.' - Catherine Snowdon, Central Banking 'Good economic forecasters are pragmatists. They combine intuition, based on experience, with time series evidence and theory. Forget theory, and you lose internal consistency and become a bad story teller. Be a slave to theory, and you miss important developments because they do not fit. These skills are not taught in graduate school (they should). But they are taught in this remarkable book. Read it before you start forecasting.' Olivier J. Blanchard, Economics Professor, MIT and Chief Economist, IMF 'This book reminded me almost effortlessly of the complications and pitfalls in the 'dark art' of forecasting I once had to learn the hard way. Its comprehensive and thoroughly up-to-date approach gave me insights I either never had or were simply not available at the time. It is clearly written, logically ordered, and reliant no more than necessary on mathematical techniques. It also draws key lessons from the 2007 financial crisis and the Great Recession that followed.' William R. White, Chairman of the OECD's Economic and Development Review Committee and Former Head of the Monetary and Economic Department, BIS 'This book is accessible to anyone with a general background in economics, yet nuanced and state-of-the-art. It provides the complete toolkit needed by forecasters, with clear presentations of the technicalities and numerous up-to-date real-life exhibits. It vividly shows how economic analysis and decision processes interact.' Jean-Philippe Cotis, Head of France's National Statistical Office and former OECD Chief Economist

Über den Autor und weitere Mitwirkende

NICOLAS CARNOT is Deputy Director for Social and Employment Policies in the French Treasury. He has held several positions at the French Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund, where he has been involved in macroeconomic forecasting and economic policy advice. VINCENT KOEN is a Senior Official in the OECD Economics Department and has long been one of the main authors of its Economic Outlook. He has also held positions at the International Monetary Fund and the French Central Bank. He authored a textbook on capital markets and numerous economic articles and holds a PhD from MIT. BRUNO TISSOT is Adviser to the General Manager of the BIS, where he previously was the Secretary of the Markets Committee of Central Banks. Before joining the BIS, he ran the International Economic Synthesis Division at the French Ministry of Finance. With Nicolas Carnot, he co-authored La Prevision Economique, which in 2003 received a prize for best economics book from the French Moral and Political Sciences Academy.

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A Practical Guide for Perilous Times 26. November 2011
Von Rex - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Now more than ever, economists, policy makers, and businessmen need to be able to form forecasts of key economic aggregates--or at least be able to critically appraise forecasts of official institutions and private think tanks. Economic Forecasting and Policy (Second Edition) is the perfect book for the task. Written lucidly and intelligently by three well-known economists from the French Treasury, the OECD, and the BIS (one of the few institutions to have "called" the 2008-09 global financial crisis), this book provides both underlying theory and much practical advice.
After an overview of business cycle analysis, Carnot, Koen and Tissot delve into the main building blocks of aggregate time series: on the "real" side, consumption, investment, external balance, employment, and wages and prices; on the financial side, monetary policy and its transmission, macro-financial linkages, and asset prices (bonds, stocks, exchange rates). These are truly superb, covering a lot of technical material in an accessible way. Of particular relevance to recent events in the United States, Europe, and Japan, is the chapter on public finances; this is must-reading for anyone trying to make sense of the fiscal policy debates in advanced economies today. After going through the various building blocks, the book gets into forecast risks and accuracy, which is intimately linked to the use to which the forecast will be put (discussed in the final chapter). Here the authors' experience in both making and (more importantly) using forecasts is evident, and the discussion is balanced and intelligent. Three useful (though more technical) annexes describe the data used for major macroeconomic forecasts, time series econometric methods, and macro models.
Overall, a thoroughly enjoyable book by three authors who clearly know what they are writing about. Highly recommended for students, policy makers, and practioners alike. I will recommend it to my colleagues and likely assign it to my MBA students.
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All you need to know about economic forecasting 25. November 2011
Von HenrikB - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Taschenbuch
"Economic Forecasting and Policy: Second Edition" is a must-read for analysts working with macroeconomic issues and forecasting in the private sector, government or international organizations. Indeed it could prove useful for users of forecasts too, such as politicians, corporate leaders and journalist. It is clearly written, fairly untechnical and provides lot's of practical examples in included boxes. This is a book written by practitioners for practioners.

What makes this book, and its' predecessor, so valuable is that is written as a "cookbook" for forecasters, whereas most books on economic forecasting take their departure mainly from economic theory and econometric models. The latter are important tools for good forecasting, but they are not nearly sufficient as any forecaster worth their salt will tell you. As a manager of forecasting teams, I've found the predecessor of this book extremely useful when helping well-trained but unexperienced economists into the forecasting business.

The book is organized around the main building blocks of forecasting: interpreting and analyzing incoming data, simple economic models of the real economy, the financial sector etc. The first five chapters roughly covers what you need to know for doing economic forecasting, while the remaining three deals with issues like long-term forecasts, risk and policy making that perhaps is more gauged towards practitioners working in the public sector. Finally, there are three annexes dealing with more technical issues like time series methods.

For those that have read the first edition, the most obvious difference is that it is significantly longer. In terms of content the financial sector gets a much more thorough treatment, which is very useful (but not surprising!). Furthermore, the second edition also deals more extensively with large scale simulation and forecasting models that are used by larger institutions. Although these models have received well-deserved criticism in the wake of the financial crisis, they remain important instruments and this was something of a shortcoming of the first edition as it e.g. didn't cover DSGE-modelling. The second edition is also even more generous with practical examples in terms of boxes, although more analysis of the ongoing sovereign debt crisis would have been useful.
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