Eastward to Tartary: Travels in the Balkans, the Middle East, and the Caucasus (Vintage Departures) [Englisch] [Taschenbuch]

"Eastward to Tartary" is bracing, as have been all of Kaplan's books, and not for the weak of stomach! Whether or not you like what he has to say, you have to admit that Kaplan has vast knowledge and wisdom and cuts right to the chase - no bull. Reading Kaplan, I kept thinking: this guy is the anti-Friedman! No cloying cuteness, no wonders of globalization for Kaplan, and no rhapsodizing over the wonders of shopping malls and McDonalds either. Thank goodness! Instead, Kaplan writes clearly, brutally honestly, without sentimentality, glibness, or cuteness. Kaplan is NOT an optimist, and I mean this as a compliment. Instead, Kaplan is a clear-eyed realist, and, as Michael Ignatieff calls him, a "travel writer from hell" (that's a compliment, too, by the way!) Many Americans, steeped in naïve, mushy, rose-colored, and even dangerous optimism, would probably call him a pessimist by way of dismissing him because they don't WANT to believe what he has to say. But just because Kaplan is a disturbing messenger, that doesn't mean that we should shoot him (metaphorically speaking, of course)! As Kaplan himself puts it, "a viewpoint is not necessarily inaccurate because it happens to be morally risky or pessimistic, especially if it helps explain phenomena that are otherwise unexplainable."

Kaplan's stress on the salience of history is a jarring contrast with mainstream American thought, which tends strongly towards the "history is bunk" school. Kaplan also disillusions us of the mushy notion that if only everyone could be globalized, then everyone would be peaceful liberal democrats and we'd be at the "end of history". NOT!

Kaplan is successful in part because of HOW he travels - slowly, by land or sea, mainly. As he puts it, "the essence of travel was to slow the passage of time. One could fly...but "flying from place to place encourages abstractions, whereas land travel brings one face-to-face with basic, sometimes unpleasant truths. I preferred to travel by second-class car and stay in cheap hotels...[because] it allowed me to go on learning."

So what does Kaplan learn? That "national character" matters. That "absurd personality cults" are alive and well in many of these places. That "the idea that the Internet and other technologies annihilates distances is a half-truth." That communism/ authoritarianism are not NECESSARILY all bad (at least they provided pensions, schooling, and social peace), and that liberal democracy/capitalism/free markets are not NECESSARILY all good or an end in and of themselves (especially if it's the local thugs and Mafiosi who benefit). That nothing is "determined in advance," but that leadership, history and geography (the "olive trees" in Friedman's formulation) DO matter. That the West probably could "never muster" the "sheer appetite for power" necessary to remake this part of the world. That "morality is a funny thing," and that sometimes the former "idealistic dissident" can end up destroying his country, while the ex-communist hack or secret policeman can end up saving it. That irredentism (Azeri, Turkmen, etc.) is alive and well at the start of the 21st century. That it may be only "the impermanence of bad governments" that gives one any hope at all for many of these places. That, in many of the places that he visits, Western influence extends for only a few blocks in the capital city, while the countryside is ruled by gangs and thugs, with only the faintest sign of the West. That there are plenty of rootless, unemployed, disoriented young men out there just ripe for the picking of terrorist groups, religious fanatics, mafias, and nationalistic armies. And that ecological and cultural devastation are long-lasting consequences of the collapse the Soviet Union.

So what does Kaplan recommend that we DO about this screwed-up part of the world? It's hard to tell...maybe he doesn't really know. Or, maybe, Kaplan is a specialist - he calls `em like he sees `em, but leaves it to other specialists to figure out what to do with `em! Anyway, MY recommendation is that you read this book, if you want to understand the world we live in today, and, most likely, it's future...

The book also leads us to understand that the "democracy at all cost" approach, so much vaunted by the West, is more often than not the wrong way of assisting countries which for decades found themselves under the unforgiving rule of totalitarianism, with no democratic foundations to start with. Failure to grasp this reality leads to a widening gap between the population and the few cronies who, opportunistic as they are, were able to seize the various help packages that were injected (blindly) into the region after the fall of communism (and other forms of totalitarianism, such as the Ottoman Empire). What, Kaplan asks, is the solution, then? Jordan, he argues, is a good place to start. But again, one country, however stable, cannot dissociate itself from regional currents; and in the Middle East, as in the other places Kaplan visits in this book, instability, fueled by the striated periods of history-Assyrian, Byzantine, Ottoman, etc-is an ever-present danger. One political earthquake (in an earthquake-prone region) could lead to a "domino-like" chain reaction which, it is almost certain, would affect several countries. One could argue that this is where the "real" historical "civilizations," to use Samuel Huntington's theme,-age-old "alliances,"-would reemerge. The places are also filled with many unknowns (and probably unknown unknowns as well). In the Caucasus, the fall of communism created a void which sucks in whatever ideology is fit to fill that void. Which one(s) will? One can feel the nostalgia for the days under Stalin. A very preoccupying symptom. In the Middle East, what will happen after Saddam Hussein either dies or is thrown out, or Syria loses its "avuncular" grip on Lebanon? These, and many others, are some questions you will encounter in this book.

Eastward to Taratry tackles the age-old questions, much debated by historians, scientists and pundits, of religion versus history, and nationalism versus globalism. In a region which has yet to find firm ground to stand on, where few people are extremely rich and most live in poverty, the questions of "market economy" and Western principles of equality and democracy are very far from most people's minds. Thanks to years of repression, geographical distance, scant media attention and misappropriated help from the West and the EU, what matters, for the moment, is putting food on the table, and whoever provides these very basic needs-whether he be a Stalin or a Shevardnadze-will be welcomed open-armed by the population. Let's not kid ourselves: we'd do likewise. Of course there is a marked hankering for a sense of belonging to the West; countries like Romania, which find themselves straddling the ideological faultline between East and West, would give anything to join the ranks of NATO and the European Community, and this is very telling. This line, between East and West, is very real (whether it should even exist is another question), and one must ask whether it ought to be the responsibility of the West (i.e., NATO, the EC) to choose which countries (Hungary? Romania? Bulgaria?) will join the ranks of Western countries and who will be left "behind" in the East. These power politics belong to the elite, the educated, the leaders. What about the people in the streets, who can barely eke out a living but who will suffer the consequences of such political decisions, Kaplan asks?

A great book, well-written, which answers a few questions but asks many more. This is a guide to a region which could feasibly make the news in the future, and unless we start investing politically and intellectually in it immediately, this is a region which most assuredly will cause NATO, the UN and pretty much the rest of the world many a headache. Perhaps this is our best chance to test the principles of preventive diplomacy; the conflicts aren't here yet (at least, not in the real sense of the word), but the sings are. The seismographic needles are quaking a little... The signs are here. Can we avoid a major earthquake? Maybe. A better understanding of the region, which is what this book offers, is a good start.

Since the portion of this book covering Romania and Bulgaria is meant as a sequel to Kaplan's earlier "Balkan Ghosts," and since some of the other areas covered are also featured in "The Ends of the Earth," this book is slightly weaker than those two masterpieces. Kaplan also occasionally stumbles into cultural arrogance when dealing with non-Western people and politics. However, these are slight weaknesses in a very strong book that offers highly enlightening insights into the history and peoples in areas that Americans should stop ignoring.