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Deflation: How to Survive and Trive in the Coming Wave of Delfation: How to Survive and Thrive in the Coming Wave of Deflation [Englisch] [Gebundene Ausgabe]

A. Gary Shilling
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Kurzbeschreibung

Juli 1999
Deflation -- a post-inflation economic environment that few of today's investors have experienced or understand -- could be just around the corner. In Deflation, A. Gary Shilling -- today's most influential contrarian economist and a twice-monthly columnist for Forbes -- tells investors how to recognize telltale signs of deflation. and protect their assets against a force that could knock half the value from today's bull market.

Investors at all levels will benefit from Dr. Shilling's impeccable research and lively, easy-to-understand writing style. His numerous charts and graphs give the reader:
-- 13 investing strategies for profiting through deflationary times
-- Low-risk bond investment strategies -- to sustain equity-style total returns
-- Industry sectors positioned to outperform the market


Produktinformation

  • Gebundene Ausgabe: 339 Seiten
  • Verlag: McGraw-Hill Inc.,US (Juli 1999)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ISBN-10: 0071351817
  • ISBN-13: 978-0071351812
  • Größe und/oder Gewicht: 23,1 x 15,7 x 3,3 cm
  • Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 5.0 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (2 Kundenrezensionen)
  • Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 523.003 in Fremdsprachige Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Fremdsprachige Bücher)
  • Komplettes Inhaltsverzeichnis ansehen

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Produktbeschreibungen

Amazon.de

Most people associate deflation with the 1930s: depression, unemployment, and a spectacular stock market crash. But A. Gary Shilling doesn't think that deflation is all that bad--in fact, he says, if you're prepared, deflation can be a good thing. In Deflation, Shilling outlines why he thinks we're about to enter a prolonged period of deflation and offers advice for businesses and investors on how best to position themselves and their finances and cope with the specter of falling prices.

Shilling sees several forces feeding the trend toward deflation, including the end of the cold war, reduced government spending, growing surpluses, the widespread adoption of technology, the emergence of the Internet, deregulation, and the recent Asian contagion. He also believes that the stock market is due for a severe correction that "would destroy enough individual wealth to chase consumers out of spending and into a saving spree," thereby slowing demand for goods and services and encouraging deflation even more.

Among the investments that Shilling recommends for deflationary times are treasury coupons and zero-coupon bonds, utilities, and U.S. stocks (after the correction, of course). Given Alan Greenspan's maniacal focus on fighting inflation, it might be difficult to swallow Shilling's deflationary forecast. Nevertheless, Shilling has done his homework, and it shows: he builds a case that's both convincing and easy to read. No one knows for sure what our economic future holds, but any open-minded investor would be prudent to hear Shilling out. --Harry C. Edwards

Synopsis

Arguing a strong case for economic deflation, the author presents a detailed investment strategy for deflationary episodes in the economy. He also details the 14 deflationary forces and discusses how they will affect investors and the US economy, predicting a major downturn in the near future.

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Einleitungssatz
In late 1975, as the U.S. economy began to recover from the worst recession since the 1930s, I first forecast that inflation was on the way out, even though prices were still accelerating. Lesen Sie die erste Seite
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1 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Very insightful! 20. Juli 1999
Von Ein Kunde
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
While this book is very much a re-publication of his original "Deflation" book, Gary has cut back on the number of graphs and charts, and added new content on recent developments.
While at first I wasn't too pleased to be re-reading the original book in new packaging, I found it very valuable to review the numerous points Gary makes along with some updates on his insights.
This book is currently the best on the subject and makes a lot of sense. Some have argued that Gary is out to lunch, but he is the only one I know who is prepared to address these issues intelligently.
And for those who complained that "Deflation" did not have an index, they'll be pleased to know that this McGraw-Hill edition does!
War diese Rezension für Sie hilfreich?
5.0 von 5 Sternen A history of economics with some startling conclusions! 2. September 1999
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
This was a very good read. For the most part, well-documented. I question his basis for steady or growing productivity in the current economy. I found that Leeb's book "Defying the Market" made for a very good counter-point to this book -- although, some of the conclusions are frightenly similar. Bottom-line: If the market crashes, deflation(most likely "good deflation")could be the outcome. Stocks are out, bonds are in!
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Amazon.com: 4.1 von 5 Sternen  15 Rezensionen
24 von 25 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Very Timely Investment Book for EVERYONE! 12. Juli 2002
Von Dan E. Ross - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
Having left Wall Street over a year ago I am amazed at how little attention the media, Wall Street & the Fed have given to Deflation. In my opinion the probability of a deflationary scenario is higher than ever. This book helps you prepare for such tumultuous economic times. I rank it a 5 star book, an increasingly rare rating for me. I gave this book five stars due to the excellent analysis and insightful commentary about what occurs in deflation and, more importantly, the graphical depictions the book has throughout it. It would be ignorant to mention that Mr. Shilling has been talking about deflation non-stop since the late 80's - especially after the '87 stock market crash. Can anyone remember the story about the boy who cried "WOLF!" too many times?
Talking finance without graphs is tough for the reader so I give kudos to Mr. Shilling in this regard.
As I like to say (and Mr. Shilling points this out), the 1980's was the age of government spending. The 1990's was the age of the consumer buying binge as individual debt levels have soared. The average person has $8500 in credit card debt vs. 2500 in 1990 to put it into perspective.
Moving forward, what will drive top-line growth in worldwide sales? - Did you know that the G-8 countries account for roughly 80% of total purchases worldwide and, as a result, weakness in those countries dramatically affects the world economy?
Will we end up with too much capacity due to stagnant growth or a retraction in corporate spending?
What will be the catalyst to drive economic growth? - The government has over $5 trillion in debt, corporations and individuals are tapped out and factories are running at about 76% of their utilization right now.
Buy the book........Read the book........Anyone can learn from this........By the way, bond prices have already soared so the easy money in bonds has been made.........
...If you are interested in economic history book I would encourage everyone to read The Worldly Philosophers by Robert Heilbroner since it is more international in scope and deals with the lives and times of the most famous economists in history. If you are interested in economic development I would encourage you to read Hernando DeSoto's Mystery of Capital but note his lack of focus on corruption in certain countries. A great general business book is by the management guru Peter Drucker entitled "The Essential Drucker."
17 von 18 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Changed My Investment Strategy Overnight 25. August 2001
Von Charles C. Dunlap - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
I bought a bunch of investment books while on vacation, and this book by Gary Shilling was the last to be read only because of its relative size. First I looked at the date it was written, then thought about what he was saying, especially in his look-ahead comments, and he was "spot on" about today's environment. As a result, I moved 100% to the sidelines at the end of July, 2001, and have been smiling ever since. I then asked my wife to read it, and we both agree that Gary is most accurate in his assessment of economic trends. I was so impressed that I purchased his monthly "Insight" report. The book is a "must read", especially for those nearing retirement and must conserve their capital.
11 von 11 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Prescient. 29. Mai 2003
Von Gaetan Lion - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
I read this book years ago just when it came out (mid 90s). I did not pay that much attention afterwards. I thought at the time, it was mildly interesting. Man was I wrong. This book was right on the money half a decade ahead of time. In his book, he depicted perfectly well all the trends that would lead to a rather formidable deflation factor. At the time he wrote the book, Japan was probably close to entering its deflationary phase. But, no other country was. The rest of the World's central bankers were still busy fighting inflation.
Now, the picture has changed radically, and Gary Shilling anticipated current economic times perfectly
9 von 9 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Right on the money 2. August 2003
Von Edster - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Taschenbuch
The author predicts certain economic conditions when the book was published in 1999. A stock market pullback has since happened. Rents in the Boston Market have declined for the last two years. Deflation pricing on goods that can be manufactured in the 3rd world. Quite remarkable.
He's wrong on some of the trigger mechanisms and admits that he may be. (Who could have predicted 9/11, or when the fed would raise rates..., or the bond rally causing a current real-estate bubble.)
Other authors try to scare you with hype or wave theory garbage. This book backs things up with hard data and graphs from different economic periods that run similarities. Then he explains the mechanisms at work that will drive the deflationary process. Also explains how much of it is beyond the control of the feds short term rate mechanisms.... Could be why the fed isn't jawing about it, just hoping it won't happen.
Five stars, read it. If it happens, you'll be prepared. If it doesn't happen, you'll be better educated anyways.
9 von 9 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
5.0 von 5 Sternen Very insightful! 20. Juli 1999
Von Ein Kunde - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format:Gebundene Ausgabe
While this book is very much a re-publication of his original "Deflation" book, Gary has cut back on the number of graphs and charts, and added new content on recent developments.
While at first I wasn't too pleased to be re-reading the original book in new packaging, I found it very valuable to review the numerous points Gary makes along with some updates on his insights.
This book is currently the best on the subject and makes a lot of sense. Some have argued that Gary is out to lunch, but he is the only one I know who is prepared to address these issues intelligently.
And for those who complained that "Deflation" did not have an index, they'll be pleased to know that this McGraw-Hill edition does!
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