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Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future (Englisch) Taschenbuch – 18. Juli 2014

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  • Taschenbuch: 89 Seiten
  • Verlag: Columbia Univers. Press (18. Juli 2014)
  • Sprache: Englisch
  • ISBN-10: 023116954X
  • ISBN-13: 978-0231169547
  • Größe und/oder Gewicht: 1,3 x 12,1 x 17,8 cm
  • Durchschnittliche Kundenbewertung: 4.3 von 5 Sternen  Alle Rezensionen anzeigen (3 Kundenrezensionen)
  • Amazon Bestseller-Rang: Nr. 33.910 in Fremdsprachige Bücher (Siehe Top 100 in Fremdsprachige Bücher)
  • Komplettes Inhaltsverzeichnis ansehen

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A much-needed antidote to the "AGENDA 21" nonsense promulgated by Glenn Beck and the far right, Oreskes and Conway provide us with a glimpse of the dystopian future we may ACTUALLY face should we fail to heed the warning of the world's scientists regarding the looming climate change crisis. -- Michael E. Mann, director, Penn State Earth System Science Center, and author of The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines Oreskes and Conway's startling and all-too-plausible history of the century to come is in the spirit of George Orwell and Aldous Huxley and all the writers who have turned to prophecy in the attempt to ward off an oncoming disaster. Witty in its details and disturbing in its plausibility, this is an account of the Long Emergency we're entering that you will not soon forget. -- Kim Stanley Robinson, author of Shaman, 2312, Science In the Capital, and the Mars trilogy A chilling view of what our history could be. Ignore it and it becomes more likely. Read this book, heed its warning, and perhaps we can avoid its dire predictions. -- Timothy Wirth, vice chairman, United Nations Foundation, and former U.S. Senator and Member, U.S. House of Representatives Regret, Oreskes and Conway argue, is an equal-opportunity employer. Yes, climate change will be a nightmare for environmentalists. But global warming also threatens free marketeers, because unabated, it guarantees big government intervention. And that's the great service of this short but brilliant parable: it creates bipartisan empathy for our future selves. From that gift, perhaps we can summon the will to act today. -- Auden Schendler, Vice President, Sustainability, Aspen Skiing Company Provocative and grimly fascinating, The Collapse of Western Civilization offers a glimpse into a future that, with farsighted leadership, still might be avoided. It should be required reading for anyone who works--or hopes to--in Washington. -- Elizabeth Kolbert, author of The Sixth Extinction: An Unnatural History The scenario portrayed in this valuable little book is scarily possible. It would be apt if readers took action to keep it from, you know, happening. -- Bill McKibben, founder Packed with salient science, smart speculation and flashes of mordant humour. Nature This science-historical fantasy is thought-provoking, but is it prescient? Scientific American [A] must-read... What is science fiction today will someday be the history of real, live people -- billions of them. Kudos to Oreskes and Conway for finding a creative way to talk about the immoral choice we are making today and how those billions of people will suffer for it. Climate Progress Blog Though short, Collapse provides a detailed examination of how we've failed our environment -- and a call to action to save what's left. Discover The authors' creative attack, ahead of the 2014 U.S. midterm elections, on those who today deny climate change and advocate a hands-off approach by government, is what makes this work a must-read in the politics of climate change. Its gift -- the real reason why everyone should read it -- is that it gives us an opportunity to imagine the world as our grandchildren will encounter it. Haaretz ... Oreskes and Conway have carved out a new space for historians to use their knowledge of alternative pasts to help imagine alternative futures. Public Books A gripping and deeply disturbing account... Based on sound scholarship and yet unafraid to speak boldly, this book provides a welcome moment of clarity amid the cacophony of climate change literature. All Things Environmental Excellent... The Collapse of Western Civilization is a very readable and effective way of communicating the catastrophic implications of where we are heading under the climate crisis. Climate, People & Organizations Oreskes and Conway do justice to the full seriousness of climate change. That seems to me prime among the many values of their book... For all its dispassion the book is a call to arms. Hot Topic Oreskes and Conway's book contains potent, thoughtful analysis... Huffington Post

Über den Autor und weitere Mitwirkende

Naomi Oreskes is professor of the history of science and affiliated professor of Earth and planetary sciences at Harvard University. Her 2004 essay "The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," cited by Al Gore in An Inconvenient Truth (2006), led to op-ed pieces in the Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times, and the San Francisco Chronicle, and to Congressional testimony in the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. With Erik Conway, she is the author of Merchants of Doubt: How a Handful of Scientists Obscured the Truth on Issues from Tobacco Smoke to Global Warming. Erik M. Conway is a historian of science and technology employed by the California Institute of Technology. He recently received a NASA History award for "path-breaking contributions to space history, ranging from aeronautics to Earth and space sciences," and an AIAA History Manuscript Award for his fourth book, Atmospheric Science at NASA: A History.

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1 von 1 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich Von Dieter Kaag am 14. September 2014
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
Die Wissenschaftshistoriker Naomi Oreskes und Eric Conway schreiben eigentlich sonst keine Fiction-Literatur. Bekannt sind sie durch ihr Buch "The Merchants of Doubt" (auf Deutsch: Die Machiavellis der Wissenschaft: Das Netzwerk des Leugnens), das die Mechanismen insbesondere hinter dem Leugnen des Klimawandels sehr eindrücklich beleuchtet. Nun haben sie angesichts des immer bedrohlicheren Klimawandels ein fiktives Szenario basierend auf den neuesten wissenschaftlichen Erkenntnissen vorgelegt, um vielleicht doch noch die Verantwortlichen aufzurütteln.
Ich kann nur hoffen und wünschen, dass es bald auf Deutsch erscheint, um auch hier hoffentlich eine Wirkung entfalten zu können, bevor es zu spät ist.
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Format: Kindle Edition Verifizierter Kauf
Science Fiction ist der Text nur in den Stellen, die auf die zukünftige Entwicklung verweisen. Was allerdings zu diesen wissenschaftlich prognostizierten zukünftigen Entwicklungen geführt haben wird, die Entwicklung seit Beginn der Industriellen Revolution bis heute, ist sauber recherchierte und belegte Geschichte. Zwischen den Zeilen lässt sich auch Kritik herauslesen - an der Politik, am Wirtschaftssystem, an den Konventionen der Wissenschaft.
Insgesamt eine äußerst kluge Analyse, die daherkommt wie eine spannend geschriebene historische Abhandlung – geschrieben von zwei Wissenschaftlern, die wissen, worum es geht. Unterhaltsam zu lesen, aber bitter in der Erkenntnis. Eine kluge Analyse unserer Zeit, mit erklärenden Rückblicken und erschreckenden Ausblicken. Unbedingt lesenswert!
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Von Mark Nicholls am 14. Oktober 2014
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
A slender volume, even taking into account the padding.
Though ostensibly written far in the future, the language and ideas are seldom distinguishable from the current idiom. With a little more work it could be developed into an excellent short story.
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Die hilfreichsten Kundenrezensionen auf (beta) 249 Rezensionen
122 von 143 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Well-thought-out speculative (semi)-fiction 26. Juni 2014
Von John R Mashey - Veröffentlicht auf
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
A pair of fine historians with strong science backgrounds have written a disturbing short book/extended essay. As a lifelong fan of speculative fiction, I've read many stories of world-scale disasters. Their future dystopia seems all too plausible, if the USA continues to stall instead of leading. A country settled by people willing to invest in the future for their descendants, whose Founders included two fine scientists and educators of the time (Franklin and Jefferson), invested broadly in education and research and willing to spend 35 years building the Interstate Highway system ... ought to be able to do better, and if we can, the worst can be avoided.

The Netherlands does water planning on century scales, good to emulate. They're building more floating homes.

Oreskes and Conway correctly identify the biggest challenge as political rejection of science. Ironically, this was affirmed again after the book was done, just a few weeks ago, as the US House of Representatives wanted to stop the Pentagon from using the National Climate Assessment or IPCC reports in its plans. Do they really think it's a good idea to keep the Navy from thinking about #4 Norfolk/San Diego, #3 Pacific island bases, #2 Arctic geopolitics, or #1 fact that Karachi, PK is at sea level? That's tike telling the Cold War military to ignore radiation effects as nonexistent. Politicians may specify rejection of strong, inconvenient science, but the laws of physics do not care.

We have so far avoided the 1950s/1960s most worrisome doom, nuclear war, known to have immediate dire consequences. The challenge of limiting climate change damage to a level survivable by modern civilization** is the longer-than-election-cycle lag time from action (or its lack) until the results. Reworking the world's energy infrastructure is a huge, but necessary undertaking, but requires persistent effort over many decades by many people. Humans have done that before.

It is hard to see how the future gains from losing Miami, New Orleans, Shanghai, and many other sea-level cities ... but 50-100 years from now, the residents will have no time machines to come back and stop the problem when needed. They will be stuck.

As it stands, we've missed the choice between Good and Bad, but still have choice between Bad and Worse. In the book, Western civilization delayed until the choice was Worse and Awful and got more of the latter.

People should read the book, but not count on specific technology breakthroughs. Such do happen sometimes, and researchers are working hard in Silicon Valley and elsewhere, but back in Bell Labs, we always said "never schedule breakthroughs" because even we couldn't.
I thought the book's breakthrough was a bit of a "deus ex machina" akin to "Dyson trees" to produce a future that was bad, but still had historians. But I guess that's less unlikely that kindly advanced aliens who take pity and magically fix things.

Anyone who doubts the findings of climate science might attend AGU meetings or university lectures where one can hear good scientists and ask them questions, read some good books, learn enough science to take action. That science is no less strong than medical research establishing smoking/disease connection. (Compare IPCC and Surgeon General reports.) Rejecting climate science is like making sure kids start smoking by age 12 because medical researchers are all wrong, it 's good for the economy and even if the kids fall ill 50 years from now, surely there would be a miracle cure for cancer. People don't need to share political beliefs to accept the science, recognize the problem and argue for solutions they find acceptable.

The Greenhouse Effect and Conservation of Energy exist, and so we are headed for a temperature range above any seen in recorded history, with massive population and infrastructure dependent on that range.

The book's future path is somewhere between Worse and Awful. We don't have to go there, but the clock keeps ticking.

*That wasn't my list, but that of a very senior Navy admiral when asked about climate worries.. #1 Karachi surprised me until I thought about it. Karachi is largest city in PK, which already gets floods or droughts, uses Himalayan water along with quite a few other countries, has nuclear weapons and less-than-stable government. Given increasing pressure from climate change, what could possibly go wrong? Senior military people tend to be pretty pragmatic and this is the sort of thing that worries them.

**Not everyone understands the complexity and potential vulnerability of modern high-tech supply chains. Put another way, in a world as climate-stressed as the one envisioned by Oreskes and Conway, it's unclear that billions of people would have smartphones, Internet access and use of weather satellites.
66 von 79 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Read this book 1. Juli 2014
Von Michael Ashley - Veröffentlicht auf
Format: Taschenbuch
This book should be read by anyone interested in the future of our civilization during the lifetime of our children and grand-children. It should be read by scientists who are trying to warn us of the coming catastrophe from climate change. It should be read - but won't be - by the politicians and the economic top 1% who are unable to comprehend, or simply don't care, that they will be the major cause of almost unimaginable suffering to humanity, all for the sake of living the high-life for a decade or two.

Oreskes and Conway are very perceptive historians who bring a strong understanding of science to their writing.

The book is written from the imaginary perspective of an historian from 2393 discussing the reasons for the collapse of Western civilization during the 21st century. I found the style of writing to be compelling. The book isn't describing a wildly speculative possible future (apart from compressing time by assuming a rate of sea-level rise that is at the extreme upper end of predictions) - it has strong elements of inevitability unless humanity takes dramatic action.

The study of history is terribly important. Thinking about what future historians will say about our current epoch gives an excellent perspective. Oreskes and Conway have important lessons for us on the inevitable failure of the free market, as well as issues with how physical scientists should reconsider their addiction to the 95% confidence limit and how they should show more appreciation for the biological and social sciences.

The book concludes with a Lexicon of Archaic Terms, a very interesting interview with the authors, and extensive notes. The illustrations show the effect of many metres of sea level rise on familiar coastlines.

If you haven't done so already, read the authors' earlier book "Merchant of Doubt".

Now go out and make sure that the future is brighter than Oreskes and Conway predict. There is still time to turn things around. Although New York is lost.
79 von 97 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Peering back to the present, and finding it wanting 25. Juni 2014
Von David Wineberg - Veröffentlicht auf
Format: Taschenbuch
This short book is a report by a future Chinese academic on the collapse of civilization in the 21st century, caused by global warming and pollution. It purports to recount the disaster with perspective that usually only time can provide. We today are too closely involved to see the forest for the trees. That is usually the case. Yet most of us can see the forest, burning, and that is a different issue the book delves into with gusto. Science has been shunted aside in favor of "freedom" and the dollar.

The basic premise of a historian looking back to see what happened is valid, but the authors don't go nearly far enough. The rank stupidity of the politicians of the 20th century is no different from the rank stupidity of the church in the thousand years before, when it burned scientists at the stake for uttering facts it did not want to hear, regardless of provability. Basically, it was always this way. There have always been entrenched interests to defend, empires to defend, wealth to defend, and of course power to expand. Our author from the future missed that.

It is instructive to see how a future Chinese academic might view the economic history of the west, citing capitalism vs communism and neoliberalism and market fundamentalism (in the religious fervor sense). But that academic would surely have also discovered and reported the simple truism that separates all of it for the purposes of his report: Communism failed because it did not tell the economic truth about prices. Capitalism failed because it did not tell the ecological truth about prices. That in a nutshell has driven the greed machine to the heights we see today. (It is touched on in the glossary.) The greater good is a concept discredited in the USA, and the result is a planet swamped for example, in 88,000 new chemical compounds since WWII, only three of which have been tested. (This is touched on in the Q&A, where they compare the lack of chemical testing to exhaustive testing in pharmaceuticals.) Government went from being the solution in the trustbuster age, to the problem in the Reagan era. The results were predictable and were predicted. The market fundamentalists just told everyone where they could go. And we are. Faster than we thought.

The "report" is only about 60 pages. More of a pamphlet than a book. There follows a lexicon of terms we in the present currently use and abuse. This also helps give perspective, as does the Q&A with the authors that follows. The combination of those three nonstandard components makes this an unusual book that would be refreshing if it weren't so hurtful.

David Wineberg
33 von 40 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Essential Reading 29. Juni 2014
Von elaine kurpiel - Veröffentlicht auf
Format: Taschenbuch Verifizierter Kauf
This book is most definitely not a beach read. Instead, it is a rather frightening and riveting account of what we are doing right now to ensure that the book become fact. Facts that none of us want for our children or the future generations of humans. Facts that will devastate every living species on our planet. But, instead of taking it as a harbinger of doom, we should take action this very moment to mitigate some of the effects of global warming. We have the scientific information but it is up to us, as people of the world, to take that information , spread it, implement it into our lives. The book should be required reading for every politician as well as everyone in America.
12 von 13 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Disappointing 13. August 2014
Von Mark Summers - Veröffentlicht auf
Format: Kindle Edition Verifizierter Kauf
I heard an interview with the author on NPR and thought The Collapse of Western Civilization sounded great. Unfortunately, the actual book disappointed.

The book is billed as a fictional work about anthropologists in the future trying to uncover why climate change was allowed to get out of hand in the 21st century. It reads much more like a dorm room speculation about climate change involving people who understand the threat. There is no fictional character development, no plot, no other element of fiction other than a free-flowing type of essay. The authors should have employed a fiction author to help fictionalize the concept. I wanted a fast moving book to hand to a climate skeptic friend of mine (he calls himself "neutral"), but this book is not interesting to anyone who is not already interested in climate change.

The information in the book is good and fairly comprehensive. I found some of the political speculations interesting, perhaps because I rarely read anything in that area. The climate information is "broad stroke" without some of the newer interesting tidbits.

Lastly, this was the most glitchy Kindle book I've ever read. Trying to highlight a word often sent me immediately to the table of contents. Some paragraphs are repeated in gray-scale print, but there is no indication why or how those paragraphs are chosen. It makes the book feel a little like a Dummies book where some observation are highlighted in a heavy box, but in Dummies books that is to highlight important point. It is not a technique I've ever seen in fiction. It was an effort just to turn to the next page without being rerouted by some weird Kindle glitch.

This concept and information value of this book are great. I wish reading it had been as exciting.
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