According to Philip Kotler and John Caslione, today's business leaders need "a new view of the world and a new framework for dealing with it...a systems to make better decisions. They need a managerial framework and system to deal with chaos. They need a Chaotics Management System." In the Introduction, Kotler and Caslione note that business leaders "sense that we've entered an era of ongoing, continuous turbulence and heightened chaos. This realization is often accompanied by a sense of relief that they can now articulate what they've been sensing, coupled with dread that the traditional up cycle may not kick in to let the good times roll again - at least not like it did in the past. It is for this reason that we wrote Chaotics." These remarks reminded me of Andrew Grove's assertion that "only the paranoid survive" because, even when - especially when - the "good times" are rolling, they sustain a sense of "dread" that keeps them ever-alert to potential as well as obvious threats. In their book, Kotler and Caslione do not suggest that The Age of Turbulence is merely imminent. It is already here and all organizations are now subjected to its "unpredictable and uncertain waters" in their competitive marketplace, and their leaders must somehow "navigate" them through the turbulence while achieving Business Enterprise Sustainability (BES).
The material is carefully organized within eight chapters. First, review the main causes of turbulence, then shift their attention to the sequence of eight steps of the chaotics implementation cycle that will enable business leaders to navigate "the unpredictable and uncertain waters of disruptive turbulence in what they characterize as the "Age of Turbulence":
1. Identify sources of turbulence and chaos
2. Identify management's wrong responses to turbulence
3. Establish early-warning systems
4. Construct key scenarios and strategies
5. Prioritize key scenarios and select strategy
6. Implement chaotics strategic management behaviors
7. Implement chaotics strategic marketing behaviors
8. Achieve business enterprise sustainability
Kotler and Caslione note that Clayton Christensen introduced the term "disruptive technology" in an article published by the Harvard Business Review and later developed this concept in much greater depth in a book, The Innovator's Dilemma: When New Technologies Cause Great Firms to Fail, and then replaced the term with a new concept, disruptive innovation, in a later book, The Innovator's Solution: Creating and Sustaining Successful Growth, that he co-authored with Michael Raynor. In their own book, Kotler and Caslione devise and then explore a frame-of-reference for a process of disruption that not only continues but escalates during what Fareed Zacharia aptly characterizes as "the third great power shift in modern history." (The first two were the rise of the Western world (during the 15th century of science and technology, commerce and capitalism, and the industrial and agricultural revolutions; and then, during the concluding years of the 19th century was the rise of the United States whose superpower status has been, for the last twenty years or so, largely unchallenged.) The most recent power shift has been caused by the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and various cash-rich countries in the Middle East. The nature and extent of turbulence caused by this most recent power shift are unprecedented.
I especially appreciate Kotler and Caslione's skillful use of several reader-friendly devices that include several dozen checklists (most with annotations and explanations) that are inserted throughout the narrative. They facilitate, indeed expedite frequent review later of key points. For example, factors that can cause chaos (Page 18), hypercompetition strategies and tactics for disruption (Page 31), some of the most common mistakes that business leaders make when turbulence hits (Page 49), the "top-ten" innovation mistakes a company can make during a turbulent economy (Page 57), the sequence of action steps of "one effective and efficient" approach to scenario writing (Pages 92-93), the eight-step chaotics implementation cycle (Page 107), ten recommended practices to "weather" extended periods of economic turbulence (Pages 124-126), ten effective HR recommendations to help keep companies moving forward when the economy isn't (Pages 132-146), four key changes in the marketing landscape (Page 141), eight contingency initiatives while on "active stand by" before turbulence "whips up" again (Pages 151-153), three important recommendations to keep in mind for" keeping your margins above water while you are pushing for deeper market share" (Pages-158-160), six key steps for sales executives to get their sales teams to take on a tough economy and increase badly needed sales (Pages 161-163), and the common characteristics of a "firms of endearment (Page 182). To their substantial credit, after briefly identifying the "what" of these and other business challenges, they focus most of their attention on how to respond effectively to them.
Despite the nature and extent of unprecedented challenges and perils created by "the third great power shift in modern history," Kotler and Caslione remain confident that it is not only possible for companies to survive during The Age of Turbulence; they are convinced that they can thrive while achieving Business Enterprise Sustainability (BES), the subject if their sixth and final chapter. They suggest three "pragmatic steps" that business executives can take (listed and briefly discussed on Page 169) while ensuring that all initiatives are focused on all issues integral to extending the life of the business enterprise for as long as possible. BES "aims for a comprehensive strategy to maximizing the underlying value of companies in the extended long term, while optimizing company performance and value in the shirt and medium term - but never to compromise long term value."
When concluding their brilliant book, Kotler and Caslione quote Arie de Geus's observation, "The natural average lifespan of a corporation should be as long as two or three centuries." What are the common characteristics of companies that have remained in business for that long, or longer? Arie de Geus cites four: sensitivity to their world around them, awareness of their identify, tolerance to new ideas, and conservatism in financing. Today's business leaders need to recognize and take into full account "the new normality - heightened turbulence and chaos." With the capable assistance of Philip Kotler and John Caslione, they will be much better prepared to respond effectively to it.
