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Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst (Englisch) Gebundene Ausgabe – 5. April 2011

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''New MPs should certainly have this book on their reading list'. (Financial World, April 2011).
 
'...a valiant attempt to add new perspective'. (Economist.com, April 2011).

Klappentext

THE WORLD IS in the midst of an accelerating sequence of booms and busts, and despite these developments, no organized multidisciplinary framework exists for thinking about them.
 
With the increased complexity and volatility surrounding financial bubbles, we need a more effective way to spot, and understand, these events. Based on his popular seminar at Yale University, Boombustology presents Vikram Mansharamani's multi-lens framework fore valuating the extremely elaborate social phenomenon of financial market booms and busts.
 
Unlike other finance books--which discuss making day-to-day investment decisions or the optimal strategy for a particular market--Boombustology will help you identify the "needle-moving" extremes that have the potential to render many traditional investment approaches useless.
* Divided into three comprehensive parts, this reliable resource: Develops five lenses--based upon the findings of various disciplines, from economics and psychology to politics and biology--that can be combined to evaluate financial extremes
* Examines the power of the multi-lens framework by applying it to five historical cases--Tulipomania, the Great Depression, the Japanese "Bubble Economy," the Asian Financial Crisis, and the U.S. Housing Boom and Bust--and demonstrates how the multidisciplinary approach might have helped to better understand these events as they took place
* Illustrates the framework in action by evaluating China as being in the midst of a potentially unsustainable boom
 
The framework found within these pages offers a robust understanding of the dynamics that precede, fuel, and ultimately reverse financial market extremes. Regardless of your economic or financial background, Boombustology will put you in a better position to spot financial bubbles before they burst.

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2 von 2 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich Von Frank Reibold am 6. Mai 2011
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe Verifizierter Kauf
Dieses Buch möchte bei Investments helfen. Jedoch geht es hier nicht um konkrete Empfehlungen, welche Aktie man nächste Woche kaufen soll. Vielmehr soll eine Art Seismograph entwickelt werden, mit dem man die Vorbeben der nächsten Finanzkrise erkennen kann.

Die Indikatoren werden in fünf Kategorien eingeteilt:

1. Mikroökonomie: Die reine Lehre sagt, dass Märkte immer effizient arbeiten; dafür ist jedoch Voraussetzung, dass Menschen rational handeln. Der Erzspekulant Soros vertritt die Auffassung, dass es bei den Sozialwissenschaften im Gegensatz zu den Naturwissenschaften keine strengen Gesetzmäßigkeiten gibt. Das liegt daran, dass die Entscheidungen eines Menschen sich auf ihn selbst und auf andere auswirken; das nennt man Reflexivität. (Ein Beispiel konnte man in den letzten Jahren in den USA beobachten: Steigende Immobilienpreise bedeuten höhere Sicherheiten und damit höhere Kredite, womit die Nachfrage nach Immobilien steigt und die Preise sich erhöhen usw. usf.)

2. Makroökonomie: Kredite verstärken Konjunkturzyklen. Es gibt mehrere einander ergänzende makroökonomische Theorien. Fisher zeigte, dass Deflation die Schulden relativ erhöht, was die Deflation verstärkt. (Das ist z. B. beim Bilanzeffekt der Fall, wenn Banken zwecks Erhaltung des Eigenkapitals Sicherheiten unter Wert verkaufen müssen und so die Bilanzen anderer Banken schädigen.) Minsky teilte Kredite entsprechend ihrer Nachhaltigkeit ein (können Tilgung und Zinsen überhaupt bezahlt werden?) In der Hochkonjunktur verbreiten sich demnach Schneeballsysteme, wobei man immer höhere Kredite braucht, um die alten bedienen zu können.
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Kommentar War diese Rezension für Sie hilfreich? Ja Nein Feedback senden...
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Von Roland Muff am 8. Januar 2014
Format: Kindle Edition Verifizierter Kauf
The author is presenting a resumee of alternative theories challenging classical economics (he admits they are Not his ideas). In so far the Book is Not very original, but it makes for a good introduction into these alternative ways of thinking.

The chapter on China is not new neither, but summarizes well the critical arguments that are missing in many newspaper articles on the subject or in many adds promising that this time is different.
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Die hilfreichsten Kundenrezensionen auf Amazon.com (beta)

Amazon.com: 18 Rezensionen
22 von 23 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
More a review of a few bubbles than any useful metrics 14. Mai 2011
Von Scatterbrain - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe Verifizierter Kauf
Anyone who has studied bubbles has probably already read all of this stuff. The author relies heavily on the work of George Soros, Robert Shiller, Hyman Minsky, Charles Kindleberger, Edward Chancellor, Christopher Wood, Donald Rapp and a number of others. Very little original thought is present in the book but lifts ideas and even whole passages from other books, usually with the callout "eloquently summarized by x".

Part I of the book describes the five "lenses" and is, frankly, a very basic review of economics with some basic psychology (herd behavior) and biology thrown in.

Part II provides a brief history of 5 different bubbles and applies the filters to them. Much of this section is lifted directly from other books. Some of the analysis is interesting, but quickly becomes repetitive and often it feels like the author is filling in a section merely because it is in the outline.

Part III is divided into two parts. The first part is essentially an outline for the review of the previously discussed bubbles. I was scratching my head wondering why on earth the same material would be covered again. It has the suspicious smell of padding as often inserted by college students. If you have made it this far, you have read through countless repetitions hoping for some original thought. And the payoff is a chapter dedicated to the theory that China is currently in a bubble. The author makes his case and applies his five lenses to the evidence to reach the conclusion that, yes, China currently is in an unsustainable boom. I agree that China is in a bubble but the author offers no solace. He admits he cannot predict when it will happen or what the magnitude will be (and offers no clues as to timing). We are left with advice to keep our eyes on the art market and world's tallest buildings. A Starry Night sells for $200M...time to short China! Not quite.

All in all a decent primer for the complete bubble novice (Charles Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes is a better start though). Experienced bubbleheads can safely pass.
23 von 25 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Essential Toolbox for Analyzing Today's Financial Markets! 3. März 2011
Von Former Student - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe
As both a former student in Professor Mansharamani's seminar at Yale as well as a current analyst in the financial services industry, I can emphatically say that his new book, Boombustology, has given me one of the most useful, all-encompassing frameworks one can use to analyze today's complex and ever-evolving financial markets.

Boombustology is a written version of Mansharamani's class, Financial Booms and Busts. The seminar was, hands-down, the best and most thought-provoking class I took during my tenure at Yale. The seminar equipped its students with a toolbox with which we could delve deeper into the markets using a combination of economics, psychology, the sciences, and more. The class not only taught me respect for the financial markets, but it better prepared me to identify, using multidisciplinary lenses, recurring patterns in the boom and bust cycles that define markets today. The book makes these lesson accessible to all.

Boombustology draws from the wisdom of George Soros, Hyman Minsky, the Austrian school of economics, and other prominent historic influences. By standing upon the shoulders of these giants, Mansharamani crafts his masterful lens, which contains the unison of microeconomics, macroeconomics, human psychology, political science, and biological analysis to create a toolbox which is much more than the sum of its tools. He shows us the power of his toolbox through a series of case studies, in which he overlays his multidisciplinary analysis on the greatest boom and bust cycles of all time, including the Dutch Tulip Mania, the Great Depression, and the recent global credit crisis. Finally, the book arrives at a well-argued but shocking conclusion by applying Boombustology to depict potentially the greatest bubble of all time: China.

I strongly believe that Mansharamani's multidisciplinary toolbox should be used in practice to identify booms that are happening in the markets today and predict potential busts in the future. Indeed, the financial markets have evolved into a never-ending cascade of boom and bust cycles, and I fully intend to use the art of Boombustology to frame my investment decisions throughout the remainder of my career.

Although this book successfully transcends being a "narrative" and is, in essence, a toolbox of various lenses, it only scratches the surface of what is possible through the careful application of multidisciplinary analyses of financial markets. I would have liked to read more case studies to demonstrate the robustness of the Boombustology approach, and I would have also liked to see the methodology applied to booms and busts in more asset classes (bonds, stocks, oil, gold, etc). Perhaps Professor Mansharamani can expound on these ideas in another book?

All in all, Boombustology is worth more than its weight in gold (even if those prices are potentially bubbly) and has armed me with a useful framework to look at global financial markets. I highly recommend incorporating the lessons of this book to broaden one's perspective and build a strong foundation for both studying and participating in the markets.
16 von 18 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Nice, Simple Overview 3. März 2011
Von Awolfe - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Kindle Edition
Most of the frames proposed in this book won't be new to anybody who has taken econ classes beyond 101, but the book does a good job of pulling them together into a simple model. Likewise, the China chapter is a re-hash of bear fund reports and arguments, but having them all pulled together in simple language is quite useful. Read the whole thing in a day, but expect to be thinking about it for quite some time.
2 von 2 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
Someone give me a five-armed analyst! 7. September 2011
Von Erez Davidi - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe Verifizierter Kauf
In this book, Mansharamani explores his "five-lens" methodology to spot financial bubbles before they burst. But why "five lens"? Because Mansharamani analyses the economic conditions through five different lenses in order to spot bubbles. In a rather brief and simplistic manner these are the five lenses:

1. Microeconomics Lens- in the first lens he mainly employs the George Soros's Theory of Reflexivity, which is, simply said, the theory that market participants can influence reality. In other words, a self-fulfilling prophecy. For example, suppose some people think that the U.S. government's debt is out of control and they fear the U.S. government might default. These people might start selling their bonds and, therefore, causing interest rates to rise, making it harder for the U.S. to service its debt and possibly causing the U.S. government to default.
2. Macroeconomics Lens- in this lens, the author employs three different theories in order to identify bubbles. (1) Irving Fisher's (the man who famously said that "stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau" a few weeks before the famous stock market crash of 1929) debt-deflation theory. (2) Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. (3) The Austrian Business Cycle Theory.
3. Psychology Lens- here the author mainly uses the work of Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, founders of Behavioral Economics, who won the Nobel price for their ground-breaking work in this field.
4. Politics Lens- the author analyses different policies that might affect asset prices, such as tax deductions, mortgage subsidies and so on.
5. Biology Lens- by biology the author is referring to contrarian investing. In other words, if the trade is crowded or not. As the famous saying goes: If your taxi driver is giving you advice on which stock to invest in, you go home to sell these stocks.

I found the book to be an interesting read and a good overview of the different ideas and theories, which were mentioned above. (The chapter about the coming bust in the Chinese real estate market was especially interesting). Having said that, this book falls short on two points. First, the author doesn't provide any original ideas of his own. I was rather familiar with the ideas and theories stated above; therefore I felt that I hadn't learned much by reading this book. Moreover, even if you're not familiar with the above theories, this book is not thorough enough to provide you with a good understanding of them. Secondly, even though there is a chapter devoted to how to apply the five-lenses methodology, it's still not very clear how to do so unless you're already familiar with the ideas presented in the book beforehand.

All in all, this is a good book, which provides a pretty good overview of various interesting theories. Too bad it fails to provide any original insights.
4 von 5 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich
fantastic 24. April 2011
Von Lance B. Sjogren - Veröffentlicht auf Amazon.com
Format: Gebundene Ausgabe Verifizierter Kauf
I have read a number of recent books which try to explain what has been happening in the economy, and this is a strong candidate for being the best among them.

As an amateur investor for the last 15 years or so, I long ago concluded that the "efficient market theory" was an absurdity considering how frequently the markets exhibit irrational behavior.

But as to WHY markets often go crazy, I had never given it a lot of thought beyond explanations such as manipulation of money supply by central banks, and groupthink on the part of investors due to herd behavior.

The author of this book HAS given it a whole lot of thought. From this book I have gained a much broader understanding of the origins of booms and busts, and the fact that there are many forces that can drive markets into a positive feedback mode that leads them to spiral out of control rather than revert to the mean.

Although this book is not intended as an investment guide from a standpoint of predicting financial trends in the coming years in order to ride them, I expect that the insight it provides in identifying booms and busts will be as useful as anything else I will read in helping to guide my investment decisions.

One thing I appreciate in the book was the author's diligent job in ferreting out and quoting the most germane work by others that sheds insight into this issue. I was intrigued to see that Paul Krugman had done some excellent work in the past, in stark contrast to his current role as the crazy uncle in the basement who keeps shouting out the same nonsensical gibberish. Also fascinating was the insight George Soros had about "reflexive" tendencies, which I suspect was the key to his being able to become wealthy from financial speculation. (a pretty good testament to the practical value to an investor of the insights in this book!)

The knowledge in this book could probably do a whole lot more than just help individual investors steer a judicious path. If economic policy makers such as central bankers were able and willing to comprehend this material, it might make for a lot brighter economic future. Unfortunately, I suspect that they are too entrenched in their beliefs for that to happen.
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