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Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
-- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine andere Ausgabe: Gebundene Ausgabe .
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it.
Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt.
The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia.
Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan."
In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
-- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine andere Ausgabe: Gebundene Ausgabe .
From Booklist
In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Gilbert Taylor
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine andere Ausgabe: Gebundene Ausgabe .
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved -- Dieser Text bezieht sich auf eine andere Ausgabe: Gebundene Ausgabe .
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Einleitungssatz
The writer Umberto Eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull. Lesen Sie die erste Seite Ausgewählte Seiten ansehen
Buchdeckel | Copyright | Inhaltsverzeichnis | Auszug | Stichwortverzeichnis | Rückseite
The writer Umberto Eco belongs to that small class of scholars who are encyclopedic, insightful, and nondull. Lesen Sie die erste Seite Ausgewählte Seiten ansehen
Buchdeckel | Copyright | Inhaltsverzeichnis | Auszug | Stichwortverzeichnis | Rückseite
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93 von 100 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich:
4.0 von 5 Sternen
Enjoyable explanation of why (nearly) all mathematical models of financial markets are wrong,
Rezension bezieht sich auf: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Taschenbuch)
As a PhD student in Economics interested in financial markets I have read NN Taleb's book (The Black Swan), then Riccardo Rebonato's (Plight of the Fortune Tellers: Why We Need to Manage Financial Risk Differently, 2007) and Benoit Mandelbrot's ((Mis)behaviour of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward, 2005). All books contain the same message: the assumptions underlying modern risk management models are wrong (and yes, this has something to do with the financial crisis). All books are worth reading, but if you know one, you know the others. Which leaves you with the question of which book to read.Here is my recommendation: For economists and people with a mathematical background, I would suggest Mandelbrot. The story is very nice, and his explanations original. He was the first to suggest that stock prices resemble fractals, and not random walks. Since he had a co-author, the book is a good read, given some prior knowledge. For those without some intermediate knowledge of Economics or mathematics or both, I would suggest Riccardo Rebonato's book. It has a clear structure and is easy to understand. Still, it does the job and gets the point across. Now, for those who think they know a bit of philosophy, economics, mathematics and the universe in general, it's "The Black Swan" that I would recommend. Taleb is getting at the subject from a philosophical point of view, of course based on mathematics, and the story unfolds in a hilarious way. Taleb is smart and has a lot of knowledge of things that matter and things that don't. It's funny to see him bark at different groups of scientists (economists, philosophers,..). I have found no instance where his disappointment at people/theories is misplaced. Being outside the scientific establishment has its advantages. Helfen Sie anderen Kunden bei der Suche nach den hilfreichsten Rezensionen
42 von 47 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich:
2.0 von 5 Sternen
Interessanter Anfang und dann viel Polemik,
Von
Rezension bezieht sich auf: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Taschenbuch)
Eigentlich beginnt das Buch relativ interessant. Es erklärt die Grundidee der Theorie, dass Menschen nicht besonders gut darin sind bestimmte Ereignisse zu berücksichtigen (z.B. sehr unwahrscheinliche Ereignisse bzw. sehr extreme Ereignisse).Auch zu Beginn kritisiert Taleb, ganze Wissenschaftszweige dies zu spät oder nicht ausreichend in Ihrer Forschung berücksichtigen. Vor allem Betriebswirtschaft und Volkswirtschaft sind seiner Meinung nach gar keine richtigen Wissenschaften. Am Anfang des Buches wird die Kritik noch mit Studienergebnissen belegt. Später werden sie einfach so hingestellt. Ab der Mitte des Buch kann man aber mit dem Lesen aufhören. Die grundsätzliche Idee hat man verstanden wird aber gebetsmühlenartig wiederholt. Außerdem kritisiert er ab da nicht mehr die Argumente und Ideen, sondern zieht über einzelne Personen oder Institutionen her. So etwas fände ich in einer Kolumne oder einen vergleichen Rahmen angemessen. Allerdings habe ich in einem Buch erwartet, dass er versucht mit Argumenten zu überzeugen und nicht einfach andere Sachen schlecht zu reden. Man dann den Eindruck, dass Taleb sich beschwert, dass sein Genie nicht anerkannt wird und lauter Ahnungslose aber die Oberhand haben und auf ihn herabsehen. Das zeigt auch die Wahl seiner Vorbilder. Mit wenigen Ausnahmen Personen, die nicht zum Mainstream ihrer Zeit gehörten und später "Recht bekamen". Wir werden sehen ob dies beim Autor auch so sein wird. Inhaltlich: Er schießt sehr stark gegen die Vorstellung der Menschen, dass alle Ereignisse normalverteilt seien. Es geht zwar aus zahlreichen Studien (übrigens durchgeführt von den Uneinsichtigen Wirtschaftswissenschaftlern) hervor, dass Menschen intuitiv die Welt oft zu sehr vereinfachen. Andererseits ist dies in einem professionellen Umfeld nicht zwingend der Fall. Z.B. ist schon lange bekannt, dass Renditen auf Kapitalmärkten nicht normalverteilt sind. Das gleiche gilt für bestimmte Risiken, die z.B. Rückversicherer absichern sollen. Zusammenfassung: Die ersten Kapitel lesen. Theorie ist gut erklärt. Bei der Mitte aufhören. Die Polemik und Enttäuschung des angeblich verkannten Genies kann ich einfacher in jeder Tageszeitung und schlechten Privatfernsehsendern sehen. Helfen Sie anderen Kunden bei der Suche nach den hilfreichsten Rezensionen
38 von 43 Kunden fanden die folgende Rezension hilfreich:
2.0 von 5 Sternen
An interesting start...,
Von Roberto Macías "El Robert" (Offenau, Deutschland) - Alle meine Rezensionen ansehen
Rezension bezieht sich auf: The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Taschenbuch)
...that does not live up to expectations. I have to agree with reviewers in German, although it is a shame that people who can't read German will miss them and just read the praiseful reviews written in English.Let us begin with the fact that Nassim Taleb's ideas are not that all innovative. Not even in Physics. He also lacks an understanding of some fundamental laws of the univers which in fact, favour the idea that unforeseen events have major impacts. One of them being the second law of thermodynamics also explains some of his babbling about our perception of time. It even explains why engineering can ONLY predict forward in time, and not backward (he has a very bad example with an ice cube). Now, if you want my recommendation, find yourself another book on the subject, he is, after a while, just going on and on about the same, and complaining, showing you how good he is, and why every other social scientist is a sucker. Mind you, I personally wouldn't disagree about social scientists that try to use regressions to make predictions about the future, of economists which assume humans make ration choices, but wheter I'd exclude Nassim Taleb from that circle, well... Helfen Sie anderen Kunden bei der Suche nach den hilfreichsten Rezensionen
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