Baseball Prospectus [Englisch] [Taschenbuch]

As in 2003, PROSPECTUS carries both actual and translated player statistics, making it an incredibly useful all-in-one resource. For the unitiated, "translated" player statists are the actual numbers adjusted for park and league effects. Some parks are friendly to hitters, while others are friendly to pitchers, for example. The theory is that without taking context into account, it is impossible to measure the value of players relative to one another. This book solves that problem, and has figured out ways of translating numbers from the minor leagues, as well as the Japanese league and the Mexican league. Invaluable.

This book has everything: thought-provoking essays on each of the 30 MLB teams, sharp-witted, irreverent humor, original back-of-the-book articles on (among other things) the influence of catchers on stopping the running game, and stats. And stats. And stats. And did I mention stats?

But these aren't your father's baseball statistics. As anyone who read Michael Lewis's "Moneyball" or visits www.baseballprospectus.com on a regular basis knows, the BP team is responsible for the most advanced baseball analysis going on today. Luckily, there are some well-reasoned explanations of these stats at the front of the book, which proves that the authors are more than your average number-crunchers, and actually have a feel for game that most people who deal with stats do not. I could hardly do justice to their explanations in this space, so I'll just say "see for yourself."

And yet, while stats are abundant throughout "Baseball Prospectus 2004," what really *makes* the book is the writing. Each team gets the full treatment of a ~2000 word essay, along with detailed player comments on at least 50 individuals throughout the organization. Player comments run from the fascinating and informative to the downright hilarious. The BP writers don't pull any punches in their analysis, and it makes for fantastic reading, whether you agree with their opinions or not.

I could go on about "Baseball Prospectus 2004," but I hardly feel like I'd be doing it justice. I wait eagerly for my copy of BP every year, and rarely have I been disappointed. "BP 2004" is the best sports book I've read this year, and I thoroughly expect to be able to make that same claim 9 months from now.

I must admit that I bought this book to help me in my fantasy league. I am not a baseball statistics purist or registered sabremetrician. I know many readers are though. For people like me, the Prospectus does not give projections for the standard 5x5 or roto categories, but gives OBP and OPS type stats. I understand that these have greater predictive value, but I would still like to know how many RBI the writers think Sammy Sosa is going to get. So I was wondering how to translate the insights from the Baseball Prospectus for my league.

I also bought the Fantasy Baseball Strategy book which I see Amazon is offering with the Prospectus. This is a very good pairing. That book's valuation approach also uses iteration to compare players to replacement players, or the ones not expected to be drafted, in each scoring category. So the statistical approach is very much inline with the Prospectus'. What I think is interesting is that the author really emphasizes the strategic and competitive aspects of fantasy baseball over the valuation process (which is only one of 11 chapters), mainly because most people focus on that. There is a really good section using Michael Porter's Competitive Advantage (Cost Leadership vs. Differentiation) principles that illustrates why. The two books compliment each other well. The point is, if you buy these books to help you in your league, use the Prospectus to gain statistical insights (Cost Leadership) and use the other book to form a strategy (Differentiation) based on those insights so they give you a practical advantage.

Whether you buy the Prospectus for fantasy or not, if you are a baseball fan, you really should get it. You will view baseball from a more objective perspective.